中国双向投资发展阶段及其贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 10:03

本文关键词： 双向投资阶段定位贸易效应　出处：《安徽大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：如今,就进出口贸易而言,我国是世界第一大贸易国；就双向投资流量而言,我国外资流入流出均位列全球前三。这四大领域都是我国经济发展的重要引擎,并且相互之间密切关联。现今,我国的双向投资出现新的变化,对外直接投资增幅连续远超吸收外资,在此背景下,对于双向投资发展阶段问题以及其贸易效应的研究对于我国经济发展具有重要意义。对这两部分展开讨论的方法相对独立,但内在关系密不可分,对主题二展开分析是基于两个主题的内在关联性基础上,研究的必要性在于中国的国际直接投资出现新的变化趋势,在双向投资与进出口贸易紧密相关的内在逻辑下,双向投资的新进展,新特点必然影响到其长期贸易效应,了解这种变动和影响是本文研究目的所在。就中国双向投资发展阶段问题的研究,本文先是在第二章做了现状分析,分别就吸收外商直接投资和对外直接投资的规模、产业分布和地域分布情况进行总结并大量采用图表、数据等描述性方法进行详述；第三章,本文则是以邓宁的国际直接投资发展周期理论为依据,以前人研究方法为参考,用1982-2013年间净对外直接投资额与人均GDP的时间序列数据为样本,建立二次多项式和四次多项式模型来拟合投资周期与经济发展水平的相互关系,通过对模型所得方程的解析认为我国国际直接投资处于第三阶段向第四阶段过渡时期,并得出我国直接投资进入第四阶段的人均GDP临界点为7024美元。就双向投资贸易效应问题的研究,本文得出结论认为：在长期内,对外直接投资对于进出口贸易都起到促进作用,其中,对进口贸易的弹性为0.1039,对出口贸易的弹性为0.2013；吸收外资对于进口贸易有微弱的替代效应,其弹性为-0.001,对出口贸易有促进效应,弹性为0.1440。从动态影响过程来看,对外直接投资对出口存在持续但收敛的促进作用,对进口贸易的影响存在滞后且初期为负效应,三期后转为持续明显的正效应；外资流入对出口的影响除了在滞后两期表现出微小的负效应外,整体呈促进效应,且在滞后十期内该促进效应逐渐趋于增强,对进口贸易整体呈现替代效应,后期表现出较小的促进作用。总的来说,脉冲响应得出的双向投资与进出口之间动态冲击效应与长期相互关系较为吻合,量化了双向投资的贸易效应。
[Abstract]:Now, as far as import and export trade is concerned, China is the largest trading country in the world. As far as two-way investment flows are concerned, the inflow and outflow of foreign capital in China are among the top three in the world. These four fields are the important engines of China's economic development, and they are closely related to each other. There are new changes in two-way investment in China, and the growth rate of foreign direct investment continues to exceed that of absorbing foreign capital, in this context. The research on the development stage of two-way investment and its trade effect is of great significance to the economic development of our country. The methods to discuss these two parts are relatively independent, but the internal relations are inseparable. The analysis of topic 2 is based on the inherent relevance of the two themes. The necessity of the research lies in the emergence of a new trend of change in China's international direct investment (FDI). Under the internal logic that two-way investment is closely related to import and export trade, the new development of two-way investment will inevitably affect its long-term trade effect. Understanding this change and impact is the purpose of this paper. For the study of the development stage of two-way investment in China, this paper first makes a current situation analysis in the second chapter. The scale of FDI and FDI, industrial distribution and regional distribution are summarized, and a large number of descriptive methods, such as charts and data, are used in detail. The third chapter, this paper is based on Deng Ning's theory of the development cycle of international direct investment, previous research methods for reference. The time series data of net outward direct investment (OFDI) and GDP per capita for the period 1982-2013 were used as samples. The quadratic polynomial model and the fourth order polynomial model are established to fit the relationship between the investment cycle and the level of economic development. Through the analysis of the equation obtained from the model, it is concluded that China's international direct investment is in the transition period from the third stage to the 4th stage. At the same time, the critical point of per capita GDP of China's direct investment entering the 4th stage is US $7024. On the basis of the research on the effect of two-way investment trade, this paper draws the conclusion that: in the long run. Foreign direct investment promotes import and export trade, in which the elasticity of import trade is 0.1039, and that of export trade is 0.2013; The absorption of foreign capital has a weak substitution effect on import trade, its elasticity is -0.001, it has a promoting effect on export trade, and its elasticity is 0.1440.From the view of dynamic influence process. Foreign direct investment (OFDI) has a continuous but convergent promoting effect on exports, a delayed and negative effect on import trade at the initial stage, and a sustained and obvious positive effect after three periods. In addition to the impact of foreign capital inflow on exports in the two lag periods showing a small negative effect, the overall effect is a promotional effect, and in the ten periods of lag, the promotion effect tends to strengthen gradually, and the overall import trade as a whole presents a substitution effect. In general, the dynamic impact effect between two-way investment and import and export obtained by impulse response is consistent with the long-term relationship, which quantifies the trade effect of two-way investment.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

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