中国出口贸易的能源消费分析

发布时间：2018-02-14 09:17

本文关键词： 对外贸易能源消费协整检验投入产出分析法　出处：《华中师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的经济发生了高速稳定的发展,但与此同时,我国能源消费总量的大幅提高也引起了国际上的关注。中国具有出口导向型的经济增长模式,出口贸易额在国民经济中所占的比重越来越大,但由于出口产业结构不平衡,使得出口产品中包含了大量的“内涵能源”,极大地刺激了我国对能源的消费。随着我国能源缺口逐渐扩大,由于环境问题承受的国际舆论的压力越来越大,能源已经成为制约我国经济进一步发展的重要因素,讨论出口贸易和能源消费之间在短期内的动态关系及长期均衡关系无疑是非常有必要的。本文的实证分析主要分为两部分,首先通过建立计量模型,对我国在1993-2012年期间产生的能源消费进行分析,运用VAR模型、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应分析等方法,得到如下结论：出口总额占国内生产总值比重提高,无论是在经济学还是在统计学意义上都显著导致人均能源消费量的增大,即经济“外向度”越高越会引起能源消费的上升,并根据该结论提出假设,我国出口平均能源强度大于总产出平均能源强度,即我国出口结构更倾向于密集使用能源。在第二部分的实证分析中,为了验证假设采用投入产出分析法,测算出在我国出口中较为重要的24个行业的能源强度。再通过加权平均,分别测算出我国总产出平均能源强度及进出口平均能源强度。结果验证了假设的正确性,我国出口平均能源强度大于总产出平均能源强度,进口平均能源强度最小,说明中国出口产品构成更倾向于密集使用能源进行生产。随后针对实证检验结果,从宏、微观两个层面,对能源价格机制、出口优惠政策、出口产业结构、出口企业的技术等四个问题上给出合理的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced rapid and stable development, but at the same time, the substantial increase in the total amount of energy consumption in China has also aroused international concern. China has an export-oriented economic growth model. The export trade volume accounts for an increasing proportion of the national economy, but because of the imbalance in the export industrial structure, The export products contain a large number of "energy sources of connotation", which greatly stimulate the consumption of energy in China. As the energy gap in our country gradually expands, the pressure of international public opinion on environmental problems is increasing. Energy has become an important factor restricting the further development of China's economy. It is undoubtedly necessary to discuss the dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationship between export trade and energy consumption in the short term. First of all, through the establishment of econometric models, the energy consumption generated in China during 1993-2012 is analyzed. The methods of VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used. The following conclusions are drawn: the increase in the share of total exports in GDP, both in economics and in statistics, has led to a significant increase in per capita energy consumption, that is, the higher the economic "outward orientation", the higher the energy consumption. According to this conclusion, the average energy intensity of China's export is higher than the average energy intensity of total output, that is, the export structure of our country is more inclined to use energy intensively. In the second part of the empirical analysis, In order to verify the hypothesis using input-output analysis, the energy intensity of 24 industries that are more important in China's exports is calculated. The average energy intensity of China's total output and the average energy intensity of import and export are calculated respectively. The results verify the correctness of the hypothesis that the average energy intensity of China's export is greater than the average energy intensity of total output, and the average energy intensity of import is the smallest. It shows that China's export product composition is more inclined to use energy intensively for production. Then, in view of the empirical test results, from the macro and micro levels, the energy price mechanism, export preferential policies, and export industrial structure are discussed. The technology of export enterprises and other four issues to give reasonable policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F206

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