供需不确定环境下具有后悔心理零售商的订货决策研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 18:16

本文关键词： 后悔理论供应不确定性需求不确定性提前支付　出处：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供应链上的企业往往面临许多不确定性。例如,零售商面临上游供应商供应不确定性的风险以及下游消费者需求不确定性的风险。供应商往往面临产能及资金约束问题导致供应的及时性及准确性不够。消费者由于自身心理或者外部环境的原因而改变自身的消费行为。因此,供应链上的企业需要对上下游的供需不确定性做出匹配,使得供应与需求能达到平衡。这对供应链中的零售企业而言尤为重要。本文基于上述背景,研究具有后悔心理的零售商面临供应与需求不确定情形下的订货决策,零售商的目标是最大化自身的期望效用。论文主要采用模型分析的方法,将经典的报童模型和后悔理论以及供需不确定理论结合,并且结合实际的数据对模型进行了数值实验,数值实验使用Matlab软件进行分析,来验证结论的有效性和可靠性。我们获得了最优的订货量,并分析了后悔程度以及价格、成本参数对最优订货量的影响。研究发现,具有后悔心理的零售商,当处于更担心剩余后悔的情况时,产品的零售价格越高,最优订货量越小,并且随着剩余后悔程度的增加,订货量也越小;当处于更担心缺货后悔的情况时,产品的零售价格越高,最优订货量越大。并且随着缺货后悔程度的增加,订货量也越大。在分析完供需不确定性对零售商的影响之后,又研究了如何改善供应的不确定性。通过模型分析发现,引入提前支付策略可以降低供应比例的标准差,进而改善供应的不确定性,同时提高零售商的期望效用和供应商的期望利润。研究表明,当提前支付资金成本越高的时候,零售商就会考虑降低提前支付比例,当单位资金成本超过临界值时,零售商就不会考虑采取提前支付策略。论文对于零售商的订货策略具有指导意义,零售商可以参考论文的结论来获得更大的期望效用。
[Abstract]:Companies in supply chains often face many uncertainties. For example, Retailers face the risk of upstream supplier supply uncertainty and downstream consumer demand uncertainty. Suppliers often face capacity and financial constraints which lead to insufficient timeliness and accuracy of supply. Change one's consumption behavior because of one's own psychology or external environment. Enterprises in the supply chain need to match the uncertainty of supply and demand upstream and downstream to achieve a balance between supply and demand. This is particularly important for retail enterprises in the supply chain. This paper studies the ordering decision of retailers with regret in the uncertain situation of supply and demand. The goal of retailers is to maximize their expected utility. This paper mainly adopts the method of model analysis. Combining the classical newsboy model with regret theory and the theory of supply and demand uncertainty, and combining with the actual data, the model is numerically tested, and the numerical experiment is analyzed by Matlab software. To verify the validity and reliability of the conclusion. We obtained the optimal order quantity, and analyzed the influence of regret degree, price and cost parameters on the optimal order quantity. When you are more worried about residual regret, the higher the retail price of the product, the smaller the optimal order quantity, and the smaller the order quantity is with the increase of residual regret; when you are more worried about the shortage of regret, The higher the retail price of the product, the greater the optimal order quantity. And the larger the order quantity is with the increase of the regret degree of the shortage, the greater the order quantity is. After analyzing the effect of the uncertainty of supply and demand on the retailer, Through the model analysis, it is found that the standard deviation of supply ratio can be reduced and the uncertainty of supply can be improved by introducing early payment strategy. At the same time, the expected utility of retailers and the expected profits of suppliers are improved. Research shows that when the cost of paying funds in advance is higher, retailers will consider reducing the proportion of early payments, when the unit cost of capital exceeds the threshold. Retailers will not consider adopting early payment strategy. This paper is of guiding significance to retailers' order policy. Retailers can refer to the conclusions of the paper to obtain greater expected utility.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F724.2

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