航空企业燃油套期保值策略分析

发布时间：2018-02-24 01:26

本文关键词： 燃油套期保值金融风险控制风险价值模型对策　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2000年以来,不断上涨的国际油价成为正处于高速发展的中国经济的沉重负担,尤其对燃油消耗类企业造成了巨大的运营成本压力。为提高业内收益水平,降低并稳定燃油成本成为航空业内各家公司的重要目标。在技术创新方法之外,各航空公司普遍寻求财务解决途径。对于稳定价格的问题,最好的解决方案就是选择基于对冲原理的套期保值工具。在燃油价格上行期间,国内外一些航空公司运用套期保值方案较好地平抑成本波动,获得了良好的收益。2008年度国际油价从147美元/桶跌至40美元/桶,燃油成本大幅缩减,对于航空公司来说是一个重大的利好,但是国内部分航空却因套期保值业务产生巨额亏损,而美国西南航空公司在同样进行套期保值业务操作的情况下保持了收益平稳。这样的例子说明了套期保值是一把锋利的双刃剑,价格判断正确时会平抑价格成本,稳定总体收益;如果方向判断错误,期货合约将会吞噬主营业务带来的微薄利润,甚至为公司造成巨大损失。本文针对稳定航空公司燃油价格问题,借鉴国内外先进案例和依据国航相关策略对山航的燃油套期保值进行方案设计,主要采用了风险控制领域的风险价值理论模型。第一部分介绍了选题的背景和意义和国内外文献简介,为文章的深入研究提供有效依据;第二部分概述了套期保值理论的发展,奠定全文的理论基础;第三部分从实践的角度出发,学习国内外航空公司燃油套期保值的案例,以期从美国西南航空和东方航空策略的成功中汲取经验,为山航的套期保值策略设计指明方向;第四部分是对山东航空公司燃油套期保值方案设计,也是文章中最为核心的环节。以国内在套期保值方面做的最为出色的国航为参照,依据山航的具体情况对以上的套期保值策略进行改进和具体的风险防控分析,提出风险防控措施;第五部分分析研究成果得出结论并提出相关的政策建议。研究结果显示:套期保值策略的运用在我国的航空业燃油成本风险控制方面可以起到较好的效果,是稳定燃油成本波动率的有效工具。交易风险防控、财务风险防控和其他金融风险防控措施的灵活运用,在整个操作过程中起到十分关键的保障作用,防控措施的实施直接影响到套期保值的效率效果。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, rising international oil prices have become a heavy burden on the rapidly developing Chinese economy, especially on fuel consuming enterprises. Reducing and stabilizing fuel costs has become an important goal for companies in the aviation industry. In addition to technological innovations, airlines generally seek financial solutions. The best solution is to choose hedging tools based on the principle of hedging. During the upward period of fuel prices, some airlines at home and abroad use hedging schemes to better calm cost fluctuations. Good earnings. The international oil price fell from 147 dollars per barrel to 40 dollars per barrel in 2008, and the cost of fuel has been drastically reduced, which is a major positive for airlines. However, some domestic airlines have incurred huge losses as a result of hedging business. While Southwest Airlines of the United States has maintained a steady return under the same hedging operation. Such an example shows that hedging is a sharp double-edged sword, and when the price is correctly judged, it will reduce the price cost. Stable overall income; if the wrong direction, futures contracts will eat into the main business of small profits, and even cause huge losses for the company. Drawing lessons from the advanced cases at home and abroad and according to the relevant strategy of Air China, the paper designs the fuel hedging scheme of Shanghang Airlines. The first part introduces the background and significance of the topic and the introduction of literature at home and abroad to provide an effective basis for in-depth research; the second part outlines the development of hedging theory. The third part studies the case of fuel hedging of domestic and foreign airlines in order to learn from the success of Southwest Airlines and Eastern Airlines from the perspective of practice. Pointing out the direction for Shanshan Airlines' hedging strategy design; 4th part is the design of Shandong Airlines fuel hedging scheme, which is also the core link in the article. According to the specific situation of Mountain Airlines to improve the above hedging strategy and specific risk prevention and control analysis, put forward risk prevention and control measures; Part 5th analyses the research results and puts forward the relevant policy recommendations. The results show that the application of hedging strategy in China's aviation industry fuel cost risk control can play a better effect. It is an effective tool to stabilize the fluctuation rate of fuel cost. The flexible application of trade risk prevention and control, financial risk prevention and control and other financial risk prevention and control measures plays a very important role in ensuring the whole operation process. The implementation of preventive and control measures directly affects the efficiency of hedging.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F562.6;F724.5;F764.1

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