基于碳测算的中国木质林产品贸易结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 02:03

本文关键词： 木质林产品碳储量碳排放贸易碳流量对策建议　出处：《北京林业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球气候变暖使推行低碳经济成为全人类的共识,木质林产品碳储量和碳排放对温室气体排放具有重要影响。我国是木质林产品生产和贸易大国,围绕木质林产品碳储量和碳排放,估算和分析中国木质林产品碳储量和碳排放变化及贸易碳流量现状,基于碳测算结果,提出低碳经济下优化我国木质林产品贸易结构、增强木质林产品碳管理的可行建议,使其在节能减排过程中发挥积极作用。本文对IPCC指南中提到的木质林产品碳储量核算方法进行了对比分析,采用其中的储量变化法利用FAO数据库中的生产和贸易数据,估算了1962-2012年中国总体木质林产品碳储量及2000-2012年贸易碳流量；然后采用投入产出法利用WIOD提供的中国2000-2011年投入产出表估算中国总体木质林产品碳排放及贸易隐含碳排放量,在此基础上分析中国总体木质林产品贸易碳流量对该行业碳排放的影响。接着按照FAO对木质林产品的分类标准具体测算分析中国分类木质林产品贸易碳流动现状。最后,结合碳储量和碳排放,引入贸易碳效率的概念,从进口、出口两方面评价中国木质林产品贸易商品结构现状,并提出优化我国木质林产品贸易结构以提高木质林产品贸易碳效率增加国内碳储量的对策建议。主要研究结论如下：(1)1962-2012年间,中国总体木质林产品碳储量不断增长,且增速逐年加快。中国总体木质林产品贸易进出口碳量不断上涨,总体上属于碳净进口型。(2)2000-2011年间,中国总体木质林产品碳排放量平均排在所有国民经济部门的第二位。中国总体木质林产品进出口隐含碳排放量在某种程度上影响着该行业碳排放量。中国总体木质林产品贸易碳净流量对该行业碳减排起到贡献作用但作用不大。(3)从分类木质林产品贸易碳流量现状看,2000-2013年间,工业原木、锯材和木浆这三种作为原材料的木质林产品进口碳量大于出口碳量,对中国木质产品碳库贡献最大,而人造板、纸和纸板在满足国内市场需求的同时也出口了大量碳量。(4)从贸易碳效率的角度评价中国木质林产品贸易结构,得出主要进口商品中,木浆、回收纸符合贸易碳效率最优标准,工业原木、锯材没有实现贸易碳效率最优情况；主要出口商品中,人造板符合贸易碳效率最优标准,而纸和纸板没有实现贸易碳效率最优化。最后,根据实证研究结果,提出进一步提高木质林产品贸易碳效率增加国内碳储量的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Global warming makes the implementation of low-carbon economy a common understanding of all mankind. Carbon storage and carbon emissions from wood forest products have an important impact on greenhouse gas emissions. China is a large country in the production and trade of wood forest products. Based on the carbon storage and carbon emissions of wood forest products, the changes of carbon storage and carbon emissions of wood forest products in China and the current situation of trade carbon flow are estimated and analyzed. Based on the results of carbon measurement, the trade structure of wood forest products in low carbon economy is proposed to optimize the trade structure of wood forest products in China. The feasible suggestions of enhancing carbon management of wood forest products and making them play an active role in the process of energy saving and emission reduction. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the carbon storage accounting methods of wood forest products mentioned in the IPCC guidelines. Based on the production and trade data in FAO database, the carbon storage of China's total woody forest products from 1962 to 2012 and the carbon flux of trade from 2000 to 2012 were estimated by means of reserve variation method. Then the input-output method is used to estimate China's total wood forest product carbon emissions and trade implied carbon emissions using the input-output table provided by WIOD for 2000-2011. On the basis of this, the paper analyzes the influence of the carbon flux of China's total wood forest products trade on the carbon emissions of this industry. Then, according to the classification standard of FAO for wood forest products, the paper calculates and analyzes the current situation of carbon flow in the trade of classified wood forest products in China. Combined with carbon storage and carbon emissions, this paper introduces the concept of trade carbon efficiency, and evaluates the current situation of trade commodity structure of Chinese wood forest products from the aspects of import and export. The countermeasures and suggestions of optimizing the trade structure of woody forest products in China in order to improve the carbon efficiency of trade in wood forest products and to increase domestic carbon reserves are put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: from 1962 to 2012, the total carbon reserves of woody forest products in China increased continuously. And the growth rate has been accelerating year by year. The import and export carbon content of China's total wood forest products trade has been increasing, which is generally a net carbon intake type. China's total woody forest products are ranked second on average among all sectors of the national economy. The implied carbon emissions from imports and exports of china's total woody forest products affect the industry's carbon emissions to some extent. China's total wood industry. Net carbon flow of quality forest products trade plays a contribution to carbon emission reduction in this industry, but it has little effect.) from the current situation of carbon flow in classified wood forest products trade, from 2000 to 2013, Industrial logs, sawn timber and wood pulp are three kinds of wood-based forest products that are raw materials, the import carbon is larger than the export carbon, which contributes the most to the carbon pool of China's wood products, while the wood-based panels. Paper and Board not only meet the domestic market demand, but also export a large amount of carbon.) from the perspective of trade carbon efficiency, the trade structure of China's wood forest products is evaluated. It is concluded that among the main imported commodities, wood pulp and recycled paper meet the optimal standards for trade carbon efficiency. Industrial logs and sawn timber do not achieve optimal trade carbon efficiency; among the main export commodities, wood-based panels meet the trade carbon efficiency criteria, while paper and paperboard do not optimize trade carbon efficiency. Finally, according to empirical research results, The countermeasures and suggestions to further improve the trade carbon efficiency of wood forest products and increase domestic carbon storage are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.88;F752.6

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