ECFA框架下两岸服务贸易自由化的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 15:19

本文选题：ECFA　切入点：两岸服务贸易　出处：《中央民族大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2013年6月,中国大陆和台湾在《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement,以下简称ECFA)的基础上,签订了《海峡两岸服务贸易协议》(Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement,以下简称《协议》),为促进两岸服务贸易进一步自由化及便利化奠定了基础。两岸服务贸易自由化,是新时代两岸服务贸易发展的主旋律,将在很大程度上促进两岸经济贸易发展。2013年,大陆服务贸易额高达5365亿美元,台湾地区服务贸易额为940亿美元,两岸服务贸易发展均呈较快增长趋势。两岸签订ECFA及其框架下《协议》之后,双边服务贸易发展更为迅速。在这种背景下,很多学者开始研究两岸服务贸易自由化相关问题,但大多是定性研究,缺少定量方面的研究。因此,定量研究ECFA框架下两岸服务贸易自由化的经济效应,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。论文第一部分为绪论,主要介绍了论文的研究背景、研究意义、研究方法、创新点、不足之处和相关研究综述等,目的是为下文的顺利展开奠定基础。第一章主要从服务贸易相关理论出发,为ECFA框架下两岸服务贸易自由化的研究奠定理论基础,该章主要介绍了服务贸易的比较优势理论、规模经济理论、国家竞争优势理论和地缘经济理论。论文第二章则从两岸服务贸易的发展现状出发,为ECFA框架下两岸服务贸易自由化的研究奠定现实基础,该章主要从总量、内部结构和国际竞争力三方面分析了中国大陆和台湾各自的服务贸易发展现状,并从服务贸易合作水平和合作领域方面,分析了中国大陆与台湾相互间服务贸易发展现状。论文第三章主要分析了ECFA的签订对两岸服务贸易自由化的推动作用,该部分在内容上起到承上启下的作用,主要为第四章ECFA框架下两岸服务贸易自由化的经济效应分析做理论铺垫。论文第四章为全文的重点和核心,主要选取全球贸易分析模型GTAP①模拟分析了两岸服务贸易自由化的经济效应。通过实证分析,得出两岸服务贸易自由化对大陆地区、台湾地区和两岸经贸往来密切的国家和地区具有不同的经济效应。论文第五章则对两岸服务贸易自由化更好发展提出了对策建议,包括：平衡两岸所获利益、重视与利益相关国博弈、创新服务贸易增长方式和完善服务体系政策法规等,并得出两岸服务贸易自由化会推动两岸贸易的成长,提高两岸实际GDP的增长速度与福利水平,并促进两岸相关产业发展的基本结论及需要进一步研究的问题。
[Abstract]:In June 2013, China and Taiwan built on the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The signing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (hereinafter referred to as "Agreement") has laid a foundation for further liberalization and facilitation of cross-strait service trade. It is the main theme of the development of cross-strait service trade in the new era, and will greatly promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade. In 2013, the service trade volume of the mainland reached US $536.5 billion, and that of the Taiwan region was US $94 billion. The development of service trade between the two sides of the strait has shown a relatively rapid growth trend. After the signing of the ECFA and its Agreement under the Framework, bilateral service trade has developed more rapidly. Under this background, many scholars have begun to study issues related to the liberalization of cross-strait service trade. But most of them are qualitative and lack of quantitative research. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study quantitatively the economic effects of cross-strait service trade liberalization under the framework of ECFA. This paper mainly introduces the research background, research significance, research methods, innovation points, deficiencies and related research review, etc. The purpose of the paper is to lay a foundation for the smooth development of the following chapter. It lays a theoretical foundation for the research on the liberalization of cross-strait service trade under the framework of ECFA. This chapter mainly introduces the comparative advantage theory of service trade and the theory of economies of scale. The second chapter sets out from the current situation of the development of cross-strait service trade, and lays a realistic foundation for the research of cross-strait service trade liberalization under the framework of ECFA. The internal structure and international competitiveness of China and Taiwan are analyzed, and the level and field of cooperation in service trade are analyzed. This paper analyzes the current situation of service trade development between mainland China and Taiwan. Chapter three mainly analyzes the role of ECFA in promoting the liberalization of service trade between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, which plays a connecting role in the content. It mainly lays a theoretical foundation for the economic effect analysis of cross-strait service trade liberalization under the framework of ECFA 4th. Chapter 4th is the focus and core of the thesis. This paper mainly selects the global trade analysis model GTAP1 to simulate and analyze the economic effects of cross-strait service trade liberalization. Taiwan and countries and regions with close economic and trade ties have different economic effects. Chapter 5th of the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the better development of cross-strait service trade liberalization, including: balancing the benefits gained by the two sides of the strait. Attach importance to the game with the stakeholders, innovate the growth mode of service trade and perfect the policies and regulations of service system, and draw the conclusion that the liberalization of service trade between the two sides will promote the growth of cross-strait trade and improve the growth speed and welfare level of cross-strait actual GDP. And to promote the development of relevant industries across the Taiwan Strait basic conclusions and needs further research.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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