中国出口潜力及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 09:36

本文选题：出口潜力　切入点：潜力拓展型　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国经济自2012年以来,在国际市场需求结构的变化以及供给侧结构性失衡问题的双重压力下,进入了中高速发展的“新常态”,在此背景下,出口总额虽然仍居世界第一,但是增长动力明显不足。2015年中国出口出现了-2.58%的增长,并且传统劳动密集型商品出口比较优势也在逐渐减弱。因此,对中国的出口潜力进行测算,并对影响因素进行分析,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文以中国出口潜力及影响因素为研究主题,一是,在对国内外出口潜力及影响因素相关文献研究的基础上,用中国2001-2015年间的出口数据,从总量、市场结构、出口依存度等方面进行了分析,发现中国出口一直存在依存度高、市场区位分布集中等问题。结合显示性优势指数分析,发现中国在后危机时代存在出口增长乏力、出口要素禀赋优势逐渐弱化等问题。二是,针对上述的分析结果,选取了2008-2015年的面板数据,以引力模型为实证分析工具,在人民币不断升值和针对中国的贸易保护主义重新抬头的基础上添加了汇率和APEC两个变量,对模型进行拓展后回归,并检验确定了最佳模型。三是,利用回归方程,从总量层面对中国的出口潜力及其影响因素分别进行实证分析,发现出口潜力整体上呈现出“中间大两头细”的状态,即“潜力拓展型”的国家或地区占多数。“潜力巨大型”,“潜力再造型”的国家比较少,且数量上相差不大,其中“潜力再造型”国家中不乏有发展程度相当、相似需求度高、但是潜力差距大的国家,这些依然可以是拓展出口潜力的目标。通过对欧盟和东盟以及金砖国家的出口潜力进行了单独分析,发现对德国、荷兰、匈牙利、马耳他、波兰、斯洛文尼亚的出口处于不足状态,对比利时、丹麦等17国的出口适中;对东盟10国的印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡、菲律宾、越南处于不足状态,缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨处于适中状态;金砖国家中对俄罗斯、南非处于不足状态,对巴西、印度处于适中状态。四是,对出口的影响因素分析,发现经济总量与出口成正相关,且对出口的影响很大,并且出口对象国的经济总量对数对中国出口总量对数的弹性系数大于中国自身经济总量对出口的弹性系数;汇率对出口具有较小的抑制作用;APEC对出口有很大的促进作用。五是,基于实证的回归方程,在假定目前的世界经济发展趋势稳定的条件下对我国未来的出口进行了趋势分析,并结合出口的影响因素分析,就中国如何突破瓶颈挖掘出口潜力提出了几点参考建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2012, China's economy has entered the "new normal" of medium and high speed development under the double pressure of the change in the structure of international market demand and the structural imbalance on the supply side. In this context, the total export volume still ranks first in the world. In 2015, China's exports increased by -2.58 percent, and the comparative advantage of traditional labor-intensive goods exports was gradually weakened. Therefore, the export potential of China was measured and the influencing factors were analyzed. It is of great practical significance. This paper focuses on the export potential of China and its influencing factors. First, on the basis of the research on the domestic and foreign export potential and its influencing factors, the author uses the export data of China from 2001 to 2015 to analyze the export potential of China. This paper analyzes the market structure and export dependence, and finds that China's export has always had problems such as high degree of dependence and concentrated market location distribution, etc. Combined with the analysis of indicative advantage index, it is found that China's export growth has been weak in the post-crisis era. Secondly, in view of the above analysis results, the panel data from 2008 to 2015 are selected, and the gravity model is used as an empirical analysis tool. On the basis of the appreciation of RMB and the resurgence of trade protectionism against China, two variables, exchange rate and APEC, are added to the model, and the model is extended, and the best model is determined. Third, the regression equation is used. Through the empirical analysis of China's export potential and its influencing factors from the total volume level, it is found that the export potential as a whole presents a state of "middle big and two small". That is, "potential development type" countries or regions account for the majority. "potential remolding" countries are relatively small, and the number of "potential remolding" countries is not much different. Among them, "potential remolding" countries have similar development degree and high similarity demand. But countries with large gaps in potential can still be targets for expanding their export potential. A separate analysis of the export potential of the European Union and ASEAN and the BRICS countries shows that in Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia's exports are inadequate, to Belgium, Denmark and other 17 countries moderate; to ASEAN's 10 countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam is inadequate; Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia is in a moderate state; the BRICS countries are in a moderate state for Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India. Fourth, an analysis of the factors affecting exports shows that the total economic volume is positively correlated with exports. And it has a great influence on export, and the elastic coefficient of the logarithm of economic total to the logarithm of China's export is larger than that of China's own economic aggregate to export. Exchange rate has a small inhibitory effect on exports. APEC has a great role in promoting exports. Fifthly, based on the empirical regression equation, the trend analysis of China's future exports is carried out on the assumption that the current world economic development trend is stable. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to break through the bottleneck and tap the export potential.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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