中国与“一带一路”国家农产品出口市场细分：贸易连续体理念与方法

发布时间：2018-03-17 08:35

本文选题：“一带一路”　切入点：市场准入　出处：《华中农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”倡议给我国经济发展带来了新的机遇,农产品对外经贸合作是“一带一路”建设的重要组成部分之一。同时,“一带一路”沿线各国资源禀赋各异,经济互补性较强,有较大的合作潜力和合作空间。但是,需要注意的是,“一带一路”沿线各国市场准入程度各异,贸易开放水平不同,对国际市场农产品的需求不一。面对不同市场准入水平和贸易特点的国家,根据地理区域划分农产品贸易伙伴并制定出口策略的传统贸易策略制定方法已逐渐显现其劣势。我们不能采用“放之四海而皆准”的农产品出口贸易策略,而是需要针对特定市场特征和需求“量体裁衣”,实行差异化的贸易策略。那么,各个国家农产品贸易基本情况如何?中国的哪些农产品具有比较优势?如何量化判断各国的农产品市场准入程度?如何构建农产品贸易连续体指标体系?如何有效甄别不同国家所处的特定市场并提出有针对性的出口贸易策略?围绕本研究中的这些核心问题,展开了实证研究。本研究按照“现状—比较优势—市场细分—对策建议”的逻辑思路展开研究。为了透彻了解中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状与基本特征,本研究基于《协调商品名称和编码制度》(HS)4分位农产品贸易数据,研究了2000-2015年中国与沿线59个国家农产品贸易的总体现状、分区域现状和分种类现状、贸易结构和出口集中度,并判断了中国与沿线国家农产品贸易特征。研究发现:总体上,中国与沿线国家农产品贸易联系日益紧密,贸易逆差不断缩小。分区域看,中国与各区域农产品出口额不断增长,东盟是最重要的农产品贸易伙伴,其次是西亚、中东及北非和蒙俄。分种类看,中国与沿线国家分种类农产品出口迅速增长,园艺产品和水产品是最主要的出口农产品品种。并且,中国与沿线国家农产品出口集中度不高,出口品种结构分散。为了深入探究中国与沿线国家农产品比较优势动态变化,采用贸易竞争力指数和比较优势指数测算了2000-2015年中国与沿线国家农产品总体比较优势和分种类比较优势,并构建贸易竞争优势矩阵研究了细分园艺产品和水产品的比较优势品种变化、变动方向。研究结果表明:总体上,中国与沿线国家农产品竞争力不强,但近年来有所好转。农产品贸易缺乏比较优势,而且有所恶化。分种类看,中国的园艺产品和水产品具有较强的竞争优势,同时其比较优势的细分品种范围有所扩大,而谷类产品失去竞争优势。从细分种类看,园艺产品蔬菜中亚热带水果及其加工品具有较强的竞争优势,水产品中鱼产品和软体动物具有较强的竞争优势。为了准确识别沿线国家处于贸易连续体谱系的位置,并提出差异化农产品出口贸易策略,本研究以园艺产品和水产品为研究对象,建立HS 4分位关税数据库,从市场基本经济情况、市场容量、市场准入、海关环境和制度环境5个方面构建中国与沿线国家农产品出口市场细分指标体系。在信度检验的基础上,采用层次聚类分析法对出口市场细分指标进行聚类分析,最后,提出针对不同贸易连续体国家的出口贸易策略。研究发现:沿线国家市场容量差异较大,消费水平各异。东盟国家消费水平较高,部分西亚、中东及北非的消费水平相对较低。各个国家市场准入水平差异较大,与中国签订自由贸易区协定的国家相对容易进入。东盟和部分中东欧国家的市场准入保护水平低,而西亚、中东及北非、南亚国家的市场准入保护水平相对较高。各个国家处于农产品贸易连续体谱系的不同位置,东盟是中国最重要的农产品出口贸易伙伴。根据贸易连续体的方法,把沿线国家农产品出口市场分为4类:主要贸易国、次要贸易国、贸易潜力国和贸易开拓国。最后,在全文研究结论的基础上提出了促进我国与沿线国家农产品贸易合作、扩大我国农产品出口的对策建议:创新合作方式,加强对外农业合作;深挖比较优势,培育优势农产品;促进出口多元化,实行差异化出口策略等。在总结前人研究的基础上,本文的创新体现在以下几个方面:(1)引入贸易连续体理念与方法到国际农产品市场细分指标体系中,采用层次聚类分析方法对中国与沿线国家农产品出口市场进行细分研究。本研究从沿线国家基本经济状况、市场容量、市场准入、海关环境和制度环境共5方面考虑,构建农产品出口贸易连续体指标体系进行聚类分析,对前沿研究具有一定的补充性。(2)采用最新的HS 4分位农产品贸易数据资料,研究中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的基本情况和比较优势动态。在分析2000-2015年中国与沿线国家农产品总体结构、区域结构和产品结构的基础上,进一步研究了HS 4分位园艺产品和水产品的竞争优势。研究结果不仅增加了对中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的了解,也提高了对双边比较优势判断的准确度。又充分显示了具有比较优势的细分农产品品种变动方向,与同类研究相比更有深度。(3)构建HS 4分位园艺产品和水产品关税数据库,以贸易加权关税作为衡量关税水平的指标,对沿线国家农产品市场准入水平有更为清晰的认识。基于WITS数据库、WTO关税数据库和中国自由贸易区服务网的相关数据和文件,构建HS 4分位园艺产品和水产品的关税数据,并以贸易加权关税来度量平均关税水平,以进行市场细分研究。研究结论具有一般性和普适性。
[Abstract]:"The Belt and Road" initiative to China's economic development has brought new opportunities for agricultural products, foreign trade and economic cooperation is an important part of The Belt and Road construction. At the same time, "The Belt and Road countries along different resource endowments, economic complementarity, cooperation has great potential and space for cooperation. However, note that the" The Belt and Road "along the national market access degree is different, different levels of trade openness, the agricultural products in the international market demand. Facing different market access and trade characteristics of the country, according to the geographical area of traditional trade strategy of agricultural products trade partners and the development of export strategy method has been gradually to show its disadvantages. We cannot adopt" export trade strategy applicable everywhere "agricultural products, but the need for specific market demand and characteristics of" tailor ", the implementation of differentiated The trade strategy. Then, how is the basic of all national agricultural trade? What is the comparative advantage of agricultural products Chinese? How to judge the market access of agricultural products? How to construct the index system of the continuum of trade in agricultural products? How to effectively identify specific markets in different countries. And proposed the strategy of export.? around these core problems in this research, carried out empirical research. Research on logical thinking of this study in accordance with the current situation of comparative advantage - market segmentation - Countermeasures ". In order to thoroughly understand the situation in China and the countries along the trade of agricultural products and basic characteristics, based on the" harmonized commodity description and encoding system > (HS 4) into the agricultural product trade data, study the overall situation of 2000-2015 years Chinese along with the 59 national agricultural trade, regional situation and classification status of trade The structure and export concentration, and determine the Chinese along with the national agricultural products trade characteristics. The research shows that: in general, China along with the national agricultural products trade is more closely linked, the trade deficit is shrinking. In terms of regions, exports of agricultural products Chinese with regional growth, ASEAN agricultural products are the most important trade partners secondly, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and Mongolia and Russia. See, the rapid growth of exports of agricultural products and China species divided along the country, horticultural products and aquatic products are the main export varieties of agricultural products and agricultural products, home Chinese along with the country's export concentration is not high, in order to further diversify the export structure of varieties. To explore China along with the national agricultural products dynamic comparative advantage, the trade competitiveness index and comparative advantage index to measure 2000-2015 years Chinese along with the national agricultural products overall comparative advantage and types Comparative advantage, comparative advantage and variety change of horticultural products and aquatic products to build subdivision trade competitive advantage matrix change direction. The results show that: Overall, China along with the national competitiveness of agricultural products is not strong, but in recent years, the trade of agricultural products has improved. The lack of comparative advantage, and worsened. See China, horticultural products and aquatic products has a strong competitive advantage, at the same time the sub varieties of its comparative advantage has expanded the scope, and cereal products lose competitive advantage. From the sub species, horticultural products in Central Asia with vegetables fruits and processed products has a strong competitive advantage, fish products and software products with strong water animal competitive advantage. In order to accurately identify the countries along the continuum in the trade lineage position, and put forward the trade strategy of export differentiation of agricultural products, horticultural products and water in this study The product as the research object, establish HS 4 digit tariff database, from the basic situation of market economy, market capacity, market access, construct the index system of the export market Chinese subdivision along with the national agricultural products 5 aspects of customs and institutional environment. Based on reliability test, using hierarchical clustering analysis method of cluster analysis. The export market segmentation index finally, put forward the strategy of export trade in different countries. The study found: continuum along the national market capacity is different, different levels of consumption. ASEAN countries have higher levels of consumption, part of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the consumption level is relatively low. The difference of each country market access level greatly, signed a free trade agreement. The country is relatively easy to enter and China. Market access protection level of ASEAN and some Eastern European countries, and West Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asian countries in the city Field access protection level is relatively high. Each country is in a different position of agricultural product trade continuum lineage, ASEAN is Chinese the most important agricultural product export trade partners. According to the method of trade along the continuum, the national agricultural products export market is divided into 4 categories: the main trade country, secondary trading country, trade and trade development potential in China at last, based on the conclusions of the study are proposed to promote China and the countries along the trade cooperation of agricultural products and Countermeasures to expand exports of agricultural products in China: innovation and cooperation, strengthen foreign agricultural cooperation; deep comparative advantage, cultivate the advantages of agricultural products; to promote export diversification, implement differentiation strategy based on exports. A review of the previous studies, the innovation of this paper lies in the following aspects: (1) introduce the ideas and methods to the continuum of trade of international agricultural products market segmentation index system, using layer Clustering analysis method China segmentation research on along with the national agricultural products export market. This study from the countries along the basic economic situation, market capacity, market access, customs and institutional environment in 5 aspects, the construction of agricultural products export trade continuum index system for cluster analysis, has certain supplementary on cutting-edge research. (2) using the latest HS 4 points of agricultural product trade data, the basic situation of China along with national agricultural trade and dynamic comparative advantage. In the analysis of overall structure of China along with national agricultural products for 2000-2015 years, based on the regional structure and product structure, further study of the HS 4 points and horticultural products the competitive advantages of aquatic products. The research results not only increased the national agricultural trade Chinese along with understanding, but also improve the judgment of the bilateral comparative advantage of accuracy. And fully The display has a comparative advantage in agricultural products segmentation direction changes, compared with similar studies in more depth. (3) to construct HS 4 points of horticultural products and aquatic products tariff database, on a trade weighted tariff as a measure of tariff level indicators, the market for agricultural products along the country entry level have more clear understanding based on. WITS database, WTO database and data service China tariff free trade area network and build files, HS 4 points of horticultural products and aquatic products tariff data, and on a trade weighted tariff to measure the average tariff level, in order to study market segmentation. The conclusion of the study is general and universal.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.62

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