大宗商品价格对中国一般物价水平影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 23:23

本文选题：大宗商品指数　切入点：居民消费价格指数　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：大宗商品多为重要战略性生产和生活物资,是一国宏观经济发展的重要组成部分。我国在大力推进城市化与工业化进程的过程中,大宗商品的市场参与度不断加深,而且作为生产和消费的上游产品,能够在一定程度上反映整个宏观经济的走势。因此,研究大宗商品价格波动对我国宏观经济走势的影响,具有重要的现实意义,是客观认识大宗商品市场在我国经济发展中的重要地位并进一步发展完善大宗商品市场的基础。本文在总结国内外学者关于大宗商品市场与宏观经济关系的研究的基础上,将大宗商品价格对我国居民消费物价的影响路径分为产品价格影响路径和货币影响路径。在产品价格影响路径方面大宗商品市场主要通过直接参与最终市场产品交换和作为投入品以经过生产交换价值增值后的价值形态参与最终市场产品交换,这两种方式影响宏观经济：在货币影响路径方面,大宗商品价格波动通过影响货币政策,最终影响我国居民消费物价水平。通过使用向量自回归模型(VAR)、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等模型对2011年1月至2014年10月相关数据进行实证研究发现,无论是市场总体消费物价水平还是具体不同类别产业的消费物价水平均受到大宗商品价格波动的影响,并且居民消费价格对大宗商品价格波动的响应具有明显的滞后性,大宗商品指数可以作为我国居民消费价格指数的先行指标。最后,本文针对整体层面和各传导路径层面现状提出具有针对性且切实可行的政策建议。为健全和发展我国大宗商品市场,稳定并发展宏观经济服务。文章在论述过程中,尽力做到理论与实际相结合,致力于使所运用的数据样本与选取的分析模型具有典型代表性且适用于当前经济环境,以得出真实可靠的结论。
[Abstract]:It is an important part of macro - economic development in China . In the process of energetically promoting urbanization and industrialization , the market participation of commodities is deepening , and as an upstream product for production and consumption , it is important to study the influence of commodity price fluctuation on the macro - economy trend of China . Therefore , it is important to study the important position of commodity market in our country ' s economic development and further develop the basis for improving commodity market .

On the basis of summarizing domestic and foreign scholars ' study on commodity market and macro - economy relationship , the influence path of commodity price on consumer price in China is divided into product price influence path and currency influence path .

By using the model of vector self - regression model ( VAR ) , Johansen co - integration test , causality test , impulse response function , variance decomposition and so on , we find that the consumption price level of the market as a whole is influenced by the fluctuation of commodity price , and the consumption price of residents has obvious lag in the response of commodity price fluctuation , and the commodity index can be used as the leading indicator of consumer price index in China .

Finally , this paper puts forward some practical and feasible policy suggestions on the whole level and the current situation of each conduction path . In order to perfect and develop our country ' s commodities market , to stabilize and develop the macro - economic service .

In this paper , we try to combine the theory with practice in the course of the discussion , and try to make the applied data sample and the selected analytical model representative and suitable for the current economic environment , so as to obtain a realistic and reliable conclusion .

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F724.5;F726;F224

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