我国P2P网络借贷平台财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 10:15

本文选题：P2P网络借贷　切入点：财务风险　出处：《长安大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在互联网金融时代,P2P网络借贷是互联网金融的重要创新模式,它在缓解民间资本的投资需求、填补中小企业的融资缺口及完善我国金融体系方面发挥了重大的现实作用。2014年以来,中央政府的工作报告多次提及要规范发展互联网金融,由此表明政府开始加强对互联网金融的重视,社会各界对其关注度也逐渐增加。随着互联网金融的快速发展,其中P2P网络借贷行业的发展势头较猛,平台数量也随之迅速上升,同时平台的诈骗、跑路和提现困难等事件频繁发生。而且目前,P2P网络借贷平台的从业者和相关专家学者不重视其财务风险,以及缺乏财务风险的预警、识别、估计与控制等理论基础,一定程度上阻碍了P2P网络借贷行业的良性发展。因此,对P2P网络借贷平台的财务风险进行评价及预警分析是非常必要的。结合我国P2P网络借贷行业的特点,并参考和借鉴商业银行财务风险的理论基础,本文首先对我国P2P网络借贷平台面临的财务风险进行了详细分析;在此基础上,结合商业银行财务风险评级指标和方法,确定了平台的财务风险评价指标;其次运用主成分分析法结合改进的KLR信号分析法,建立财务风险预警模型;并选取100个样本平台,搜集评价指标的原始数据,运用财务风险预警模型对其进行实证分析。通过对样本平台进行预警分析,找出平台所处的风险水平,发现了平台存在的风险问题。得出的分析结果大致符合平台发展实际,说明该预警模型具有一定的合理性,能够为以后平台财务风险的评价和预警分析提供参考,为投资者进行投资提供借鉴,并进一步为平台管理层寻找风控重点和监管层进行监管提供思路。最后,针对P2P网络借贷平台存在财务风险提出相应的改进建议,为平台的稳定、健康、持续发展献计献策。
[Abstract]:In the era of Internet finance, P2P network lending is an important innovative mode of Internet finance, which is alleviating the investment demand of private capital.Filling the financing gap for small and medium-sized enterprises and improving our financial system have played an important practical role. Since 2014, the central government's work report has repeatedly mentioned the need to standardize the development of Internet finance.This shows that the government has begun to pay more attention to Internet finance, and the attention of all sectors of society has gradually increased.With the rapid development of Internet finance, P2P network lending industry is developing rapidly, and the number of platforms is also rising rapidly.Moreover, at present, practitioners of P2P network lending platforms and relevant experts and scholars do not attach importance to their financial risks, and lack the theoretical basis of early warning, identification, estimation and control of financial risks.To some extent, it hinders the benign development of P2P network lending industry.Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and analyze the financial risk of P2P network lending platform.Combined with the characteristics of P2P network lending industry in China, and referring to the theoretical basis of financial risk of commercial banks, this paper firstly analyzes the financial risks faced by P2P network lending platform in China in detail.Combined with the index and method of financial risk rating of commercial banks, the financial risk evaluation index of the platform is determined. Secondly, the financial risk early warning model is established by using principal component analysis combined with improved KLR signal analysis, and 100 sample platforms are selected.Collect the raw data of the evaluation index, use the financial risk early warning model to carry on the empirical analysis to it.Through the early warning analysis of the sample platform, the risk level of the platform is found, and the risk problem of the platform is found.And further for the platform management to find risk control focus and regulatory layer to provide ideas for supervision.Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to improve the financial risk of P2P network lending platform, which can provide suggestions for the stability, health and sustainable development of the platform.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.4

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