中国服务贸易进口的技术溢出效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-11 11:18

本文选题：技术溢出 + 进口服务贸易　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：服务贸易是在一定历史条件下产生的。国际服务贸易从逻辑上起源于国际货物贸易,它独立于国际货物贸易,并于二十世纪末在我国获得了长足的发展。服务贸易具有附加值高、技术含量高和资金密度高的特点。从全球范围来看,科技产出主要集中在少数发达国家手中,而技术进步却在全球范围内发生。广大发展中国家和地区作为技术追随国和模仿国,主要是通过分享世界技术进步成果获得先进技术。因此,作为一个发展中国家,我们不得不考虑通过国际贸易的技术溢出效应能够获得哪些动态收益。大量理论研究和实证研究都证实了服务贸易技术溢出效应的存在性,服务贸易的技术溢出效应对发展中国家的技术进步至关重要。然而,尽管服务贸易在全球经济中扮演重要角色,但以往的文献对其重视程度不够,对货物贸易的研究远远多于对服务贸易的研究。本文则是在新古典增长理论、新贸易理论和内生增长理论的支撑下,运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,结合我国1983-2013年服务贸易统计数据,对模型进行ADF单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验、协整检验,动态分析我国服务贸易进口与技术进步之间长期稳定的均衡关系。实证分析结果表明,服务贸易进口的技术溢出效应对技术进步有明显的促进作用,而技术进步不能显著影响服务贸易进口。从脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析可以更清晰的看出,短期内服务贸易进口对技术进步的贡献率较大,随着时间的延长,正效应逐渐减小。技术进步对服务贸易进口也存在一定的促进作用和较长的持续效应。最后,在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,针对我国服务贸易现阶段特征和存在问题,提出加强我国服务贸易进口技术溢出效应的对策。
[Abstract]:Service trade is produced under certain historical conditions.International trade in services originated logically from international trade in goods. It is independent of international trade in goods and has developed rapidly in China at the end of the 20th century.Trade in services is characterized by high added value, high technology and high capital density.Globally, technological output is concentrated in a small number of developed countries, while technological progress takes place globally.As a technological follower and a mimic country, developing countries and regions acquire advanced technology mainly by sharing the achievements of the world's technological progress.Therefore, as a developing country, we have to consider what dynamic benefits can be obtained through the technology spillover effect of international trade.A large number of theoretical and empirical studies have confirmed the existence of technology spillover effects in services trade, and the technology spillover effects of service trade are of great importance to the technological progress of developing countries.However, although trade in services plays an important role in the global economy, the previous literature has not paid enough attention to it, and the research on trade in goods is far more than that on trade in services.Supported by neoclassical growth theory, new trade theory and endogenous growth theory, this paper applies impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model, and combines statistics data of China's trade in services from 1983 to 2013.The ADF unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test are used to dynamically analyze the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's service trade imports and technological progress.The empirical results show that the technology spillover effect of service trade imports can obviously promote the technological progress, but the technological progress can not significantly affect the service trade imports.From the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, it can be seen that in the short term, the contribution rate of service trade imports to technological progress is large, and the positive effect decreases gradually with the extension of time.The technical progress also has the certain promotion function and the longer lasting effect to the service trade import.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, aiming at the characteristics and existing problems of China's service trade at the present stage, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to strengthen the technology spillover effect of China's service trade imports.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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