反倾销的动因与影响研究：异质性视角的机理分析与实证检验

发布时间：2018-04-11 12:16

本文选题：反倾销 + 异质性　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：反倾销的动因与影响研究对于理解反倾销如何发起以及企业如何应对具有重要意义。以往研究多注重宏观层面的分析,而少有微观企业层面的探讨。特别是对反倾销的影响研究,多从贸易流量以及出口二元边际的角度出发,而基于异质性企业贸易理论发展前沿的、对企业行为进行影响效应分析的相关理论和经验研究还比较缺乏。论文基于国家、行业、企业间和企业内等不同层次的异质性视角,对反倾销的动因以及对出口企业的微观影响进行分析,试图揭示反倾销发起的模式和规律、以及出口企业在面对反倾销时基于产品和市场选择的应对策略与效果,为我国制定相应政策从而帮助企业增强出口竞争力、促进对外贸易可持续发展提供重要参考。论文首先结合反倾销动因的相关文献和理论分析,以中国和印度的对比分析为基础,采用宏观经济数据、产品和行业层面的数据,分别从宏观经济因素、策略性因素以及其他因素的角度探讨了新兴经济体的反倾销模式与动因,并深入分析了反倾销发起的国家和行业异质性。其次,基于多产品企业模型的理论分析,采用2000-2009年工业企业与海关匹配数据进行实证检验,研究了多产品企业遭遇反倾销后的出口产品调整,包括产品范围和产品结构的调整以及核心产品转换,并对以核心产品为基础的产品异质性效应进行深入探讨。再次,论文通过对质量内生模型的分析,利用2000-2009年的海关数据检验了反倾销分别对出口企业产品单位价值、产品质量以及质量调整价格的影响,并对企业间和企业内的异质性反应分别进行检验。最后,论文还探究了反倾销的间接影响,即贸易政策不确定性对出口企业市场进入退出的影响,以贸易政策不确定性理论模型为研究基础,分别从企业内产品间以及集聚区域内企业间的贸易政策信息传递出发,以反倾销目标产品和相似产品为对象分析了企业的市场进入退出选择。通过理论与实证分析,论文得到的主要结论有:首先,中国的反倾销模式比印度更有规律性,各方面因素都较好地解释了中国反倾销发起的原因,其中经济增长、反倾销“俱乐部”效应以及自由贸易协定的参与均显著抑制了中国的反倾销使用。中国和印度的报复模式和传播模式不同,印度与发达国家更为相似。中国的反倾销发起具有很强的行业层面和国家层面的异质性特征,而印度反倾销对不同行业和不同国家的差异性不大。其次,企业在反倾销影响下会收缩产品范围,且在全球市场的产品收缩比在特定市场中更加明显,同时反倾销促使企业在特定市场的产品结构偏向其核心产品,而在全球市场中没有显著变化。反倾销对企业产品范围的负向影响主要来自遭遇反倾销的核心产品,如果非核心产品遭遇反倾销,则企业产品范围所受影响较小。反倾销加快了企业核心产品转换,并使其核心产品的表现更差。尤其在特定市场中,无论面对反倾销的是否为核心产品,都会对企业核心产品转换产生不利影响,然而稳定的核心产品更有利于企业对核心产品的改进。再次,在反倾销影响下,出口企业的平均产品质量会上升,而平均价格则会下降,同时该效应在距离更近的市场中表现更为显著,且各行业中遭受反倾销最多的钢铁行业反应却更不明显。反倾销后,竞争力差的企业退出市场,从而提高了平均的出口企业竞争力。同时反倾销会促使在位企业优化内部资源配置,提升产品质量、降低价格,改进企业的竞争力水平,而这种资源再分配主要流向企业原本具有优势的市场和更接近企业核心竞争力的产品,且该效应会随着市场距离的增加而减弱。最后,反倾销引起的贸易政策不确定性会显著减少出口目标产品企业的新市场进入,且在经常使用反倾销的国家中该效应更加显著。对于相似产品的新市场进入也有类似效应。贸易政策不确定性还会减少出口目标产品企业的市场退出,但对于市场份额较大的企业其退出概率则会下降。企业相似产品的市场退出概率会下降,同样是由市场份额较大的企业引起。贸易政策信息还存在区域内的溢出效应,在反倾销信息强度高的集聚区域,非目标企业的新市场进入概率也会下降。
[Abstract]:The causes and effects of anti-dumping anti-dumping for understanding how to initiate and how to deal with the enterprise has important significance. The previous studies focus on the macro level analysis, rather than on the micro enterprise level. Especially the influence of anti-dumping, trade flow and export from two yuan margin perspective, and heterogeneity based on the theory of the development of frontier trade enterprises, relevant theories and research experience and effect analysis on enterprise behavior is still lacking. Based on country, industry, enterprise and the enterprise in different levels of heterogeneity perspective, motivation of anti-dumping and micro impact on export enterprises were analyzed to reveal the pattern of anti-dumping and the law initiated, and export enterprises in the face of market products and the choice of coping strategies and effect based on anti-dumping, so as to help our country to formulate appropriate policies To strengthen the export competitiveness of enterprises, and provide an important reference for promoting the sustainable development of foreign trade. Firstly, combined with relevant literature and theoretical analysis of anti-dumping reasons, in contrast to China and India based analysis using macroeconomic data, products and industry level data, respectively from the macro economic factors, policy factors and other factors discussed the anti dumping mode and motivation of emerging economies, and in-depth analysis of the state and industry heterogeneity of anti-dumping. Secondly, analysis of multi product enterprise model based on the theory of the 2000-2009 years of industrial enterprises and customs, data analysis, enterprise of multi product after the anti-dumping export adjustment, including adjust the product range and product structure and core products and the conversion effect of product heterogeneity in core products based on in-depth study Again, through the analysis on the quality of endogenous model, test the anti-dumping unit to the product export enterprises value of the use of customs data for 2000-2009 years, affecting the quality of the products and the quality of the price adjustment, and the heterogeneity of response to the enterprise and the enterprise inside were tested. Finally, the paper also explores the indirect effect dumping, trade policy uncertainty impact on market entry and exit export enterprises, the trade policy uncertainty theory as the research foundation, respectively from the enterprise products and agglomeration among enterprises in the trade policy information transfer of anti-dumping target products and similar products as the object of enterprise market entry opt out. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the anti dumping Chinese mode more than India law, all factors are better To explain the China initiated anti-dumping reasons, including economic growth, anti-dumping "club" effect and the free trade agreement in Chinese significantly inhibited the use of anti-dumping. China and India revenge mode and communication mode, India and the developed countries are more similar. China anti-dumping launched strong the industry level and the national level heterogeneity, and anti dumping in India not for differences in different industries and different countries. Secondly, the range of products will shrink in the anti-dumping under the influence of the enterprise, and in the global market are more obvious than contraction in specific markets, and to promote the product structure of anti-dumping enterprises in a specific market in favor of its core products, while there was no significant change in the global market. The anti-dumping on enterprise product range negative influence mainly from the core products suffered anti-dumping, if non nuclear Heart products anti-dumping, the enterprise product range is influenced slightly. Anti dumping has accelerated the enterprise core product conversion, and make the core products worse. Especially in the specific market, whether in the face of anti-dumping is the core product, will have an adverse impact on the transfer of enterprise core products, improvement of the core products however stable core products more conducive to enterprises. Thirdly, in the anti-dumping under the influence of the average product quality of export enterprises will increase, while the average price will drop, while the effect of performance in closer market is more significant, and the industry suffered most anti-dumping reaction but the iron and steel industry not obvious. After anti-dumping, the poor competitiveness of enterprises out of the market, so as to improve the competitiveness of export enterprises. At the same time the average anti-dumping will encourage incumbent enterprises optimize the allocation of internal resources, improve product quality, reduce Low price, improve the level of competitiveness of enterprises, and the redistribution of resources mainly to enterprises have the advantage of the market and closer to the core competitiveness of enterprises and products, the effect will be weakened with the increase of market distance. Finally, the anti dumping caused by trade policy uncertainty will significantly reduce the export target market products into the enterprise, and in the frequent use of anti-dumping in the countries of the effect is more significant. For the market of similar products to have similar effects. Trade policy uncertainty will reduce the export target product enterprises to withdraw from the market, but the market share of large enterprises the exit probability will drop. Enterprises of similar products of the market exit probability will decline, is the same caused by the market share of large enterprises. There are spillover effect of regional trade policy information, in the anti-dumping information set high strength The probability of new market entry for non target enterprises will also decline.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.02;F753.51

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