山西省科技服务业系统动力学建模与实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 07:10

本文选题：山西省科技服务业 + 系统动力学　；参考：《中北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的蓬勃发展以及科学技术的不断进步,以提供智力服务为主要特征的科技服务业迅猛发展。科技服务业在第三产业乃至整个国民经济中扮演着越来越重要的角色。科技服务业一方面将技术、知识等要素通过研发与技术转化为现实生产力,成为现代服务业中具有高附加值的重要产业,另一方面又为其他产业的发展提供了有力的科技支撑,成为促进产业结构优化升级的重要途径。山西省作为国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区,急需大力培育和发展科技服务业,以解决粗放的经济发展方式及科技创新水平不足等问题。因此,系统地研究山西省科技服务业的发展,对于培育转型发展的驱动力,实现山西经济的长远发展有着重大的意义。本文基于系统动力学动态反馈分析方法对山西省科技服务业进行实证研究。首先,本文分析了山西省科技服务业的发展现状及存在的问题,认为目前山西省科技服务业处于发展初期,但仍有较大的发展潜力;其次,本文借助系统动力学理论,建立了科技服务业系统动力学模型。基于确定的建模思路构建了适用于科技服务业的系统框架,并对山西省科技服务业进行了应用研究,搭建了系统流图;再次,对系统动力学模型所需数据及操作进行总结,列出所需方程式,并对所构模型进行相关检验,随后通过改变相关控制变量进行了政策模拟。根据模拟结果可以得出,科技服务业能够有效推进山西省社会经济的发展,在省内第三产业产值以及地区GDP的增长中有着突出的贡献,而科技服务业的发展受到政策、资金、人才、基础设施以及科技意识环境等方面的影响。通过培育良好的科技创新环境、适度的政策干预、有效的资金投入、高素质人才的培养以及完善的基础设施建设,能够有效推进科技服务业的发展。最后,本文通过对政策模拟结果的分析,为山西省科技服务业的发展提供了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the vigorous development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the service industry of science and technology, which is characterized by providing intellectual services, is developing rapidly. Science and technology service industry plays a more and more important role in the tertiary industry and even the whole national economy. On the one hand, the scientific and technological service industry transforms technology, knowledge and other elements into real productivity through research and development, and becomes an important industry with high added value in modern service industry. On the other hand, it provides a powerful scientific and technological support for the development of other industries. It has become an important way to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Shanxi Province, as a comprehensive reform experimental area of national resource-based economy transformation, is in urgent need of cultivating and developing sci-tech service industry in order to solve the problems of extensive economic development mode and insufficient level of scientific and technological innovation. Therefore, it is of great significance to systematically study the development of scientific and technological service industry in Shanxi Province to cultivate the driving force of transformation and development and to realize the long-term development of Shanxi economy. Based on the dynamic feedback analysis method of system dynamics, this paper makes an empirical study on the science and technology service industry in Shanxi Province. First of all, this paper analyzes the current situation and existing problems of the scientific and technological service industry in Shanxi Province, and thinks that the current scientific and technological service industry in Shanxi Province is in the early stage of development, but still has great potential for development. Secondly, this paper makes use of the theory of system dynamics. The system dynamics model of science and technology service industry is established. Based on the established modeling ideas, the system framework suitable for science and technology service industry is constructed, and the application of Shanxi science and technology service industry is studied, and the system flow diagram is built. Thirdly, the data and operation of the system dynamics model are summarized. The required equations are listed and the model is tested. Then the policy simulation is carried out by changing the relevant control variables. According to the simulation results, it can be concluded that the scientific and technological service industry can effectively promote the social and economic development of Shanxi Province, and it has a prominent contribution to the output value of the tertiary industry and the growth of regional GDP in the province, while the development of the scientific and technological service industry is subject to policies and funds. The impact of talent, infrastructure, and scientific and technological awareness of the environment and so on. Through cultivating a good environment of scientific and technological innovation, moderate policy intervention, effective investment of funds, training of high quality talents and perfect infrastructure construction, the development of science and technology service industry can be effectively promoted. Finally, through the analysis of policy simulation results, this paper provides relevant policy recommendations for the development of science and technology service industry in Shanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：中北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719

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