中泰贸易影响因素分析的研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 16:54

本文选题：贸易 + 贸易协定　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在过去的一个多世纪,在科技和商业方面都发生了很大的变化与发展。有很多的大事件发生,经历了这些变革,今天的世界也因此发生了很大的变化,特别是在经济方面尤其突出。1978年,中国经济改革成为社会主义市场经济之后,经济的力量转移到了东方的世界。中国的购买力平价和名义国内生产总值(nominal GDP),分别位列世界第一和世界第二。中国目前是世界上的出口和进口产品的中心,大部分的在地图上的国家都跟中国有贸易往来。由于开放的国家政策,其他世界国家的商人可以自由来往中国,投资各种个样的业务。由此可以拓宽他们在中国的市场,这促使了在中国的交易和投资的增长。中国在2001年成为世界贸易组织(WTO)的成员之时,转折点就开始了。成为了世贸组织的成员之后,中国作为免费的车手,受益于世界经济。中国在开始了在农业,工业和服务部门开放的自由贸易。此外,中国也开放了国内经济,以鼓励其他国家的经济发展。中泰贸易已经过了一百多年,中泰之间的贸易流量达百万美元以上。在Sukhothai王朝之前,为了保持中泰关系,中国和泰国常常互相拜访和让他们的大使去另一国家,实现互相的来往。后来,在Rattanakosin王朝的时候,中国是泰国的一个大贸易伙伴。直到今天,这个贸易也没停止也没减少,中国和泰国现在好像已经变成了一家人。他们不但进行产品贸易,而且进行文化交流。本世纪中,技术和工商有很大发展和进步。毫无疑问,中泰贸易还将继续下去。他们的流量每年都在以前所未有的速度增长。双边贸易问题也日益浮现出来。所以,这个论文要分析什么因素影响中泰贸易。为了填补以前的学习空白,首先这个学习要介绍在不同时期泰国和中国有什么很好的关系,学习现有的对相关文献和因素作用。然后,学习和了解各个因素有什么好什么不好的地方也看看中泰之间的不同贸易方式。论文最后是选择因素研究。从之前的论文研究发现各种各样的影响贸易的因素。大部分的论文是在研究经济因素,也有的研究非经济性的因素。本篇论文是从贸易协定,汇率,和税率出发,研究影响双边贸易的非经济因素。本研究只用到了一个贸易协定就是中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)。本研究搜集了从1992年到2015年总共24年的数据作为参考。为了做统计,这个研究的数据从互联网取得,中泰两国汇率之间取平均汇率(每个年的平均),泰国从中国进口的流量,泰国到中国出口的流量,泰国对进口中国的商品征税,中国对泰国的商品征税,和贸易协定(CAFTA)动用的时候。进口和出口的商品被分为20类行业,他们有资本商品行业,中间产品行业,消费品行业,纺织品行业,金属制品行业,化学品行业,原料品行业,机械电子品行业,杂品行业,橡胶和塑料制品行业,燃料油成品行业,蔬菜品行业,食品产品行业,皮张产品行业,石头和玻璃产品行业,矿产行业,木材产品行业,鞋业产品行业,动物产品行业,和输运产品行业。最后用线性回归与以上的数据回答问题,研究和讨论是什么因素对中泰贸易有影响。汇率平均用每年的汇率平均,税率用最惠国税率,这种关税是世贸组织成员的收费率,除了他们有贸易协定之外。简而言之,这个比率必须是一个会员向另一个会员收取的最高费用。所以哪个国家不是世贸组织的会员可能被收费更高也可以收费更便宜,有两国之间有没有什么贸易协定的情况决定。此论文的大部分的数据从World Integrated Trade Solution网站收集。本论文的研究方法,收集的全部的数据,这些数据算是原始数据。所以,先把它们放在Microsoft Excel准备数据.数据处理包含两个数据集。第一个是进口的流量,第二个是出口的流量。然后把这两个excel的文件进行STATA软件里。最后,选择线性回归模特方式分析数据。因此,本研究能完成探究式什么因素进口还是出口经济产生了影响。本研究假设四个因素都对中泰贸易有影响,因此这里我们给出五个假设。第一假设:贸易协定对中泰贸易有正影响,第二假设:汇率对中泰贸易有正影响,第三假设:税率对中泰贸易有正影响,两个因素对这双边贸易有正影响,就是贸易协定和税率,别的因素对中泰贸易没有什么影响。结果可以这样来阐述:贸易协定:由于它是有重要意义的,这个因素必然对贸易有正影响。它的p-value等于0.00意思是它对贸易的影响太重了,因为它对进口和出口的流量有很大影响。据统计结果,中国-东盟自由贸易区被使用后,进口和出口的流量便很大程度上由稳定增加进入峭立增加。很显然,贸易协定设计了一种适合于增长市场区域的机制,在贸易协定使用之后,给市场起到了积极的影响。这是由于税率在很大程度上被降低或者豁免了,所以在这样的条件下,所有的新生商为了勘探新市场而努力输出自己的产品。与此同时,旧的在位者利用了免税率的机会来挣钱。税率:它也对这贸易也有正影响,p-value也跟贸易协定一样,等于0.00都进口和出口的流量,所以他也有很重大的影响。因为国外的商品有可能比国内产品便宜,为保护国内的商业竞争,对国外的商品征收税款是制定税率的目标。统计资料表明,当没有征税之后,图表上的数据是完全不一样。2010以前,在有中国-东盟自由贸易区的时候,图表显示的状况是属于正常上升的。但是有中国-东盟自由贸易区后,它呈现出了陡增的趋势。这些数据都说明了税率确实对双边贸易有着正向的影响。汇率:不意税率对双边贸易进口和出口的流量是没有意义的。对于这个结果,存在着几种合乎情理的解释。第一合乎情理是时间,因为这个研究用了24年的数据,就是长时间,所以可以说税率对贸易很少或者没有影响到进口和出口的流量。其次合乎情理是因为中国的政府控制税率所以它变化的幅度不大。所以它对贸易的流量没有显著性的影响。这个论文的目是为了了解哪些因素对中泰这两个交往历史悠久的国家的经济活动有正向的影响。对以上每个因素的研究和讨论,发现它们或多或少对提高和改善两个国家的关系都有积极或者没有太大的影响,可以把上述讨论小结如下。1)中国-东盟自由贸易区对贸易的发展有特别大的正影响。在有CAFTA后比没有CAFTA时,贸易的流量急剧的上升。2)另外,税率可以作为很好的贸易壁垒,他是轨迹贸易的阻碍。没有税率的时候,贸易的流量增加是很有意义的。3)中泰得汇率变少根本对贸易没有什么影响。另一方便,正常,消费者的需求对贸易有关系。数字现成,数字质量,单独变数这三个因素的选择造成了本研究有些局限性。对于数字现成,汇集贸易数据能从三个地方取得,每个国家的公用材料和第三方数据记录。每个国家的记录在网上可能不总是公开的,使用第三者的数据应该注意数据的正确性和准确性。使用的资料众多,所以数据来源可能发生不一致性。还有CAFTA被实施后的数据算是将来的数据。而贸易协定和税率这种类型的变量,现在无法分析它们的持续性的影响。如上所述,数据不应来自多个来源,以避免不一致;然而,从一个来源获取所有数据并不能保证数据的完整性和准确性。在整个研究中,大约10%的数据集是不完整的。在理想情况下,即将使用统计模型分析的数据应该是完全干净的。实际上,当有数据丢失的时候,必须进行内插或使用统计量测量,如平均值来填补缺失的部分。在分析软件的结果时,要考虑到结果可能并不总是100%准确。对于未来的研究,为了比较每个贸易协议的有效性,填补本研究课题的空白并且签订更多的贸易协定将是十分有利的。从年度到季度或每月来更多的细节,可以比较它们在长期和短期之间的差异是如何不同的。处理像文化这样不明确的变量,应该采用更为具体的措施,例如两国的历史背景。最好是通过使用统计模型并在尝试分析时避免这种变量。可能的研究思想是,促进西方与东方国家之间的贸易的不同因素,贸易是改善国家文化转型的因素,以及它在以后有何帮助等论文的结果该对政府有好处因为他们该知道应该公布什么政策增加还是减少中泰贸易的流量。另外,这个论文也包括文化因素以及它是否对这个贸易有正影响,同时也可对泰国和别的国家贸易有借鉴作用。最后,本研究对于那些对跨国贸易有着兴趣的人有一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:In the past more than a century, great changes and developments have taken place in science and technology and commerce. Many big events have taken place, and these changes have undergone great changes in the world today, especially in the economic aspect, especially in.1978 years. After China's economic reform became a socialist market economy, it was economic. Power is transferred to the eastern world. China's purchasing power parity and nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) are ranked first in the world and second in the world. China is now the center of exports and imports in the world, and most of the countries on the map have trade contacts with China. Chinese businessmen are free to go to China and invest in various kinds of business. Thus, they can widen their market in China, which has contributed to the growth of trade and investment in China. When China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the turning point began. After becoming a member of the WTO, China was free. China is opening up free trade in agricultural, industrial and service sectors. China has also opened its domestic economy to encourage economic development in other countries. China and Thailand trade has been over more than 100 years, and the trade flow between China and Thailand is more than a million dollars. Before the Sukhothai Dynasty, to ensure that With China and Thailand relations, China and Thailand often visit each other and let their ambassadors go to another country to achieve each other. Then, at the time of the Rattanakosin Dynasty, China was a big trading partner in Thailand. Until today, the trade has not stopped and has not been reduced. China and Thailand now seem to have become a family. They do not. There is no doubt that Sino Thai trade will continue. Their flow is growing at an unprecedented rate every year. The bilateral trade problem is emerging. So, this paper is to analyze what factors affect China and Thailand trade. In order to fill the previous learning gap, first of all, this study is to introduce a good relationship between Thailand and China at different times, to learn the existing related literature and factors. Then, to learn and understand what is not good for each factor and to see the different ways of trade between China and Thailand. Finally, the thesis is the choice. A variety of factors affecting trade are found in the previous paper. Most of the papers are in the study of economic factors and some of the non economic factors. This paper studies the non economic factors that affect bilateral trade from trade agreements, exchange rates, and tax rates. This study is only used in a trade agreement. This is the China ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA). This study collected data from 1992 to 2015 for a total of 24 years. In order to make statistics, the data obtained from the Internet, the average exchange rate between China and Thailand (the average of each year), the flow of Thailand from China, the flow of Thailand to China, Thailand, The import and export of goods in China are taxed, China's goods are taxed in Thailand, and the trade agreement (CAFTA) is used. Imports and exports are divided into 20 categories. They have capital commodities, intermediate products, consumer goods, textiles, metal products, chemicals, raw materials, machinery and electronic products. Product industry, rubber and plastic products industry, fuel oil product industry, vegetable product industry, food product industry, leather product industry, stone and glass product industry, mineral industry, wood product industry, shoe industry, animal product industry, and transportation product industry. Finally, use linear regression and above data to answer questions, research and discuss What is the factor that has an impact on the Sino Thai trade. The average exchange rate uses the average annual exchange rate and the MFN rate, which is the rate of the WTO members, except for their trade agreements. In short, the rate must be the highest fee charged by a member to another member. So which country is not the world's world. The members of the organization may be charged higher or cheaper, and there are no trade agreements between the two countries. Most of the data in this paper is collected from the World Integrated Trade Solution website. Put the data in Microsoft Excel. The data processing includes two data sets. The first is the import flow, the second is the export flow. Then the two Excel files are carried out in the STATA software. Finally, the linear regression model is selected to analyze the data. Therefore, this study can be completed into an inquiry into what factors import or export economy. This study assumes that four factors have an impact on China and Thailand trade, so here we give five hypotheses. First hypothesis: the trade agreement has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, second hypothesis: the exchange rate has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, and the third hypothesis: the tax rate has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, and the two factors have positive impact on the bilateral trade, It is trade agreements and tax rates, and other factors have little impact on China and Thailand trade. The result can be explained as follows: Trade Agreements: because it is important, this factor is bound to have a positive impact on trade. Its p-value equals 0 meaning that its impact on trade is too heavy because it has a large shadow of the flow of imports and exports. After the use of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the flow of import and export has greatly increased from stable to steep increase. It is clear that the trade agreement has designed a mechanism suitable for the growth of the market region, which has had a positive impact on the market after the use of the trade agreements. This is due to the tax rate is very high. It is largely reduced or exempted, so under such conditions, all the new producers try to export their products in order to explore new markets. At the same time, the old incumbent used the opportunity of tax exemption to make money. Tax rate: it also has a positive impact on this trade, and p-value, like trade agreements, is equal to 0 imports and exports. The flow of the mouth, so he also has a significant impact. Because foreign goods may be cheaper than domestic products, in order to protect domestic commercial competition, the tax collection of foreign goods is the goal of making tax rates. Statistics show that, when no tax is taxed, the figures on the chart are completely different before.2010, in the presence of China ASEAN freedom. At the time of the trade zone, the chart shows a normal rise. But after the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, it shows a steep increase. These figures show that the tax rate does have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Exchange rate: the rate of disintent is meaningless to the flow of bilateral trade intake and exports. As a result, there are several reasonable explanations. The first reason is time, because the study used 24 years of data for a long time, so it can be said that the tax rate has little or no impact on the flow of imports and exports. Secondly, it is reasonable because the government controls tax rates in China so it does not change much. It has no significant impact on the flow of trade. The aim of the paper is to understand which factors have a positive impact on the economic activities of the two countries with long history in China and Thailand. The research and discussion of each of the above factors found that they are more or less positive or less on the relationship between improving and improving the two countries. With too much influence, the above discussion can be summed up as the following.1) China ASEAN Free Trade Zone has a special positive impact on trade development. In the case of CAFTA, the flow of trade increases sharply when compared to without CAFTA, and the tax rate can be a good trade barrier. He is a hindrance of the trajectory trade. When there is no tax rate, trade is not. The increase in flow rate is a very meaningful.3) China and Thailand have little effect on trade. Another convenient, normal, consumer demand is related to trade. The choice of three factors, digital ready-made, digital quality, individual variable, has caused some limitations in this study. For digital ready-made, the collection of trade data can be taken from three places. Each country's public materials and third party data records are recorded. The records of each country may not always be published on the Internet. The data using the third should pay attention to the correctness and accuracy of the data. There is a large number of data used, so the data sources may be incompatible. And the data after the CAFTA is implemented is the future data. The variables such as trade agreements and tax rates are now unable to analyze their persistence. As mentioned above, the data should not come from multiple sources to avoid inconsistencies; however, obtaining all data from one source does not guarantee the integrity and accuracy of the data. In the whole study, about 10% of the data sets are incomplete. In the ideal case, the data that is to be analyzed using the statistical model should be completely clean. In fact, when there is a loss of data, it is necessary to insert or use statistics, such as the average to fill the missing part. In the analysis of the results of the software, it is necessary to take into account that the result may not always be 100% accurate. For future research, In order to compare the effectiveness of each trade agreement, filling the gap in this research topic and signing more trade agreements will be very beneficial. More details from the annual to quarterly or monthly can compare their differences between the long and short term. For specific measures, such as the historical background of the two countries, it is best to avoid such variables by using statistical models and trying to analyze them. Possible research ideas are different factors to promote trade between the West and the eastern countries, trade is the factor to improve the transformation of the national culture, and the results of what it will have in the future. It is good for the government because they know what policy to increase or reduce the flow of trade between China and Thailand. In addition, the paper also includes cultural factors and whether it has a positive impact on the trade, but also can be used for reference to trade in Thailand and other countries. Finally, this study is interested in those who are interested in transnational trade. People have a certain reference.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.36

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