中国对东盟出口增长二元边际影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 05:18

本文选题：中国东盟自由贸易区 + 区域经济一体化　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)建立的主要目的是加强中国与东盟十个国家之间的贸易发展关系,促进区域贸易自由化发展。关于中国—东盟自由贸易区建设的想法,从20世纪90年代以来双方就开始合作谈判。2002年在柬埔寨首都金边举行协议签署会议上,中国与东盟十国的领导人签署了《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,这意味着双方建立自由贸易区的进程正式开始启动。中国-东盟自由贸易区的成功建立意味着覆盖人口面积最多的全球第三大自由贸易区的诞生了。从此,该协议的签署和双方开始的频繁的贸易合作促进了双方的贸易的迅猛发展。2002年,中国和东盟自贸区的进出口贸易总额是547亿美元,而到了2012年双方贸易总额突破了4000亿美元,相比2002年的增长了7.3倍,事实证明中国对东盟国家自由贸易区的形成促进了双边的经贸关系更加深化、长远的发展。由于近几年中国—东盟国家的贸易额度大幅增长,贸易关系不断加深,本文运用2002-2012年间中国对东盟10国出口贸易的海关数据分析,基于贸易增长的二元边际视角深度分析中国向东盟出口增长的问题并做出详细阐述。从协议签订的初始发展到目前为止,中国的出口增长主要依赖于集约的贸易边际,然而扩展的贸易边际也在不断上升,但是所占比例较小。此外,本文通过构建引力模型进行实证研究分析中国对东盟出口增长的二元边际的影响因素,发现各个因素对二元边际影响作用均不相同。研究结果表明,国家经济规模越大对二元边际的促进作用越突出；出口的目的地国越远,可变贸易成本越高,致使对二元边际的影响为负向；双边交易国的使用同一语言和地理接壤等因素对二元边际有正向影响并促进可变贸易成本的降低。本文分析结果与贸易引力模型的基础理论是一致的。本文研究主要内容分为四章。第一章绪论,简要描述研究背景与研究意义、国内外相关文献综述、研究方法及创新之处。第二章关于中国至东盟自由贸易区出口增长的二元边际分解,本章研究分析中国对东盟各国出口的出口产品种类、出口产品价值与双边贸易的产品种类对二元边际的增长影响效应。第三章针对中国向东盟出口二元边际的影响因素进行实证分析。本章运用引力模型进行实证研究,主要考察经济规模、地理距离、语言的相同性与地接壤近等影响因素对出口增长的二元边际影响作用。第四章结论与政策建议,本章归纳中国对东盟自由贸易区出口增长的实证分析结论并提出相关政策性建议。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of the establishment of CAFTAA is to strengthen the trade development relationship between China and 10 ASEAN countries and to promote the development of regional trade liberalization. On the idea of building a China-ASEAN Free Trade area, the two sides have been negotiating cooperation since the 1990s. At the agreement signing meeting held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia's capital, in 2002, The leaders of China and ASEAN signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN, which means that the process of establishing a free trade area between China and ASEAN has officially begun. The successful establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area means the birth of the world's third largest free trade area with the largest population. Since then, the signing of the agreement and the frequent trade cooperation between the two sides have promoted the rapid development of bilateral trade. In 2002, the total import and export trade between China and the ASEAN Free Trade area was 54.7 billion US dollars. By 2012, the total trade volume between China and ASEAN had exceeded 400 billion US dollars, a 7.3-fold increase compared with 2002. It has been proved that the formation of China's Free Trade area with ASEAN countries has promoted the deepening and long-term development of bilateral economic and trade relations. As the trade quota between China and ASEAN countries has increased dramatically in recent years and trade relations have been deepened, this paper analyzes the export trade between China and ASEAN from 2002 to 2012. Based on the dual marginal perspective of trade growth, the problem of China's export growth to ASEAN is analyzed and elaborated in detail. From the beginning of the agreement to now, China's export growth mainly depends on the intensive trade margin, but the expanding trade margin is also rising, but the proportion is small. In addition, this paper makes an empirical study on the influence factors of China's dual margin of export growth to ASEAN through the establishment of gravity model, and finds that each factor has different effects on dual marginal. The results show that the larger the national economic scale is, the more prominent the promotion effect is to the dualistic margin, and the further the destination country of export is, the higher the variable trade cost is, which leads to the negative impact on the dualistic margin. The use of the same language and geographical border in bilateral trading countries has a positive impact on the duality margin and promotes the reduction of variable trade costs. The results of this paper are consistent with the basic theory of trade gravity model. The main content of this paper is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is introduction, briefly describes the research background and significance, domestic and foreign literature review, research methods and innovations. The second chapter is about the dualistic marginal decomposition of the export growth between China and ASEAN Free Trade area. This chapter analyzes the types of export products that China exports to ASEAN countries. The effect of export product value and bilateral trade product category on the growth of dualistic margin. The third chapter makes an empirical analysis on the influence factors of the dualistic margin of China's export to ASEAN. In this chapter, an empirical study using gravity model is conducted to investigate the dual marginal effects of economic scale, geographical distance, language similarity and proximity to land on export growth. Chapter four concludes with policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the empirical analysis of China's export growth to ASEAN Free Trade area and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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