中国石油进口安全研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 20:14

本文选题：石油进口 + 安全　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油是中国的第二大消费能源,是确保国家安全和国民经济平稳发展的重要战略性资源,但是中国68.53%的石油却需要从国外进口,中国也成为仅次于美国的第二大石油进口国,而且石油对外依存度可能还将进一步攀升。高石油依存度使得中国的能源安全乃至国家安全存在风险,面临威胁。一旦国际形势不稳定,中国石油进口可能被中断,对中国造成威胁。石油进口安全是指国家以合理的价格获得稳定不间断的石油供应、能将石油安全运送到国内、并能预防和抵御各种风险和威胁的状态。其衡量指标含供应安全、运输安全和价格安全三个维度,三个维度下具体包括8个要素:石油进口来源集中度、主要油源地的稳定性、中国与主要油源地外交关系的稳定性、石油输运能力、石油码头的接卸能力、保护海上运输安全的能力、保护陆上管道运输安全的能力和国际石油的议价权。中国石油进口的供应安全度较高,通过分析2011-2016年中国石油进口来源数据发现,进口来源集中度低,进口来源分散;通过分析2010-2015年主要油源地的石油产量和石油净出口量数据变化,发现石油产量和出口量保持稳定;主要油源地的政治状况也较稳定,中国与主要油源地外交关系良好。中国石油运输安全度较低,通过分析中国超大型油轮的数据发现,海上运输存在的问题有超大型油轮数量少,运力不足,海上航线途经的霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡存在地缘政治风险,缺乏关键海域的制海权;陆地石油运输方面,中缅原油管道面临的地缘政治环境较为恶劣,管道的维修保护能力较低。中国石油的价格安全度极低,存在的问题主要是国际石油议价权低,规避价格风险的能力低。解决中国石油进口存在的风险和问题,首先,中国应在国家层面认知到石油进口安全的重要性,从国家战略、制度和政策等方面提供方向指导和支持。其次,对三个维度的具体风险,采取针对性的措施。针对供应维度的风险,主要的解决措施包括:第一,强化中国的石油外交力度,深化与油源国的友好合作关系;第二,寻找新的石油进口来源,提高多元化程度;第三,增加中国的战略石油储备。针对运输维度的风险,主要的解决措施包括:第一,建造新的海运油轮,提高国油国运比例;第二,提高中国海军和空军的远洋护卫能力;第三,运用联合国的力量保护霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡等关键海域;第四,积极推建管道应急维修政府间合作机制,并将管道安全纳入到现有的区域合作框架中。针对价格维度的风险,主要的措施有:第一,加快中国石油工业体制的市场化建设;第二,改革中国的成品油定价机制,以市场定价为主,政府调控为辅;第三,建立石油期货交易市场,完善相关法律法规;第四,推进人民币的国家化。
[Abstract]:Oil is China's second largest consumer energy source and an important strategic resource to ensure national security and the smooth development of the national economy. However, 68.53 percent of China's oil needs to be imported from abroad, and China has become the second largest oil importer after the United States. And the degree of dependence on oil will probably climb further. High oil dependence makes China's energy security and even national security at risk. If the international situation is unstable, China's oil imports may be interrupted, posing a threat to China. Oil import security refers to a state in which a country can obtain a steady and uninterrupted oil supply at a reasonable price, can transport oil safely to the country, and can prevent and resist all kinds of risks and threats. The index includes three dimensions: supply security, transportation security and price security. The three dimensions include eight factors: concentration of oil import sources, stability of major oil sources, stability of diplomatic relations between China and major oil sources. The capacity of oil transportation, the ability of receiving and unloading of oil wharves, the ability of protecting the safety of maritime transportation, the ability of protecting the safety of onshore pipeline transportation and the bargaining power of international oil. The supply security of China's oil import is relatively high. By analyzing the data of China's oil import sources from 2011-2016, it is found that the concentration of import sources is low and the import sources are dispersed. By analyzing the data changes of oil production and net export volume in the major oil source areas from 2010 to 2015, it is found that the oil production and export volume remain stable, and the political situation of the major oil source regions is also stable, and China has good diplomatic relations with the major oil source regions. The safety degree of China's oil transportation is relatively low. By analyzing the data of China's super-large tankers, it is found that the problems in maritime transportation include the small number of super-large tankers and insufficient transportation capacity. There are geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mande, which the sea routes pass through, and there is no right to control the sea in the key sea areas. In terms of land oil transportation, the Sino-Myanmar crude oil pipeline faces a relatively bad geopolitical environment. The maintenance and protection ability of pipeline is low. The price safety of PetroChina is very low, the main problem is that the international oil bargaining power is low, and the ability to avoid the price risk is low. First of all, China should recognize the importance of oil import security at the national level and provide direction guidance and support from the aspects of national strategy, system and policy. Secondly, the specific risk of the three dimensions, take targeted measures. In view of the risks in the supply dimension, the main solutions include: first, to strengthen China's petroleum diplomacy and deepen the friendly and cooperative relations with oil-source countries; second, to find new sources of oil imports and increase the degree of diversification; third, Increase China's strategic oil reserves. In view of the risks in the transport dimension, the main solutions include: first, the construction of new marine tankers to increase the national oil transport ratio; second, the enhancement of the Chinese navy and air force's ocean-going escort capability; and third, Using the strength of the United Nations to protect key sea areas such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mande; fourthly, actively promoting the intergovernmental cooperation mechanism for pipeline emergency maintenance and integrating pipeline safety into the existing regional cooperation framework. In view of the risk of price dimension, the main measures are as follows: first, to accelerate the market-oriented construction of China's petroleum industry system; second, to reform the pricing mechanism of refined oil products in China; to focus on market pricing, supplemented by government regulation and control; and third, to reform the pricing mechanism of refined oil products in China. Establish oil futures trading market, improve relevant laws and regulations; fourth, promote the nationalization of RMB.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61

【相似文献】