越中贸易逆差的现状、成因及对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 02:01

本文选题：贸易逆差 + 越中贸易逆差　；参考：《南京师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：越南和中国拥有悠久的贸易历史,自从20世纪90年代两国恢复外交关系后,两国的贸易高速发展。2015年越中贸易总额约为957. 79亿美元,比2001年增长了近34倍。在越中两国贸易高速发展的同时,一些问题相应而生,其中最严重的是越南对中国的贸易逆差问题。在越中贸易中,越南长期处在贸易逆差地位,2014年越中贸易逆差值达到386亿美元,是越南向中国出口额的两倍多。越南对外贸易逆差大部分来自越中贸易逆差。越中贸易逆差产生的原因虽然相对复杂,但其根本原因则同越南处于城镇化与工业化阶段,国内市场需求旺盛,但国内工业体系不发达,国内制造力无法满足内需,而中国是个世界制造大国,与越南国土相连、隔海相望,在出口到越南市场具有很大的地理优势有着密切的联系。特别是越南出口到中国的产品大多都是初级农产品和资源类产品,高附加值的产品相对较少,产品种类比较单一。长期的越中贸易逆差对越南产生了很多负效应。首先,越中贸易逆差持续消耗越南的外汇储备,大大削弱越南防范和化解国际风险的能力;其次,越中贸易逆差严重影响了越南盾币值稳定,以致人民币对越南盾的汇率持续走高,升值幅度显著;再次,越中贸易逆差很大程度上影响越南工商业的发展,尤其是不利于越南制造业的健康发展;最后,越中贸易逆差的长期存在,有可能恶化两国之间的贸易伙伴关系的可持续发展。减少越中贸易逆差,可以采用的措施主要有:第一,越南政府应从宏观层面为越南企业的发展提供公平有利的发展环境,促进越南企业的发展,提升竞争力。第二,越南政府应该增加对基础设施的投入,为越南企业出口创造便利的交通条件。第三,越南应该充分发挥比较优势,对越南的初级产品进行深度加工再出口,增加产品价值。第四,越南应该优化产品出口结构,增加出口产品的科技含量和附加值。此外,越南和中国两国政府应进一步加强与越南的经济贸易合作,着重发展边境贸易;适当增加中国向越南投资的资金。
[Abstract]:Vietnam and China have a long history of trade and trade has grown rapidly since the two countries resumed diplomatic relations in the 1990s. Total trade between Vietnam and China in 2015 was about 957. It was $7.9 billion, an increase of nearly 34 times over 2001. With the rapid development of trade between Vietnam and China, some problems have arisen, the most serious of which is Vietnam's trade deficit with China. Vietnam has a long-standing trade deficit with China, which hit $38.6 billion in 2014, more than twice the value of Vietnam's exports to China. Vietnam's foreign trade deficit comes mostly from Vietnam's trade deficit with China. Although the reasons for the Sino-Vietnamese trade deficit are relatively complex, the underlying causes are similar to Vietnam's stage of urbanization and industrialization, with strong domestic market demand, but the domestic industrial system is underdeveloped, and domestic manufacturing power cannot meet domestic demand. China is a manufacturing country in the world. It is connected with Vietnamese territory and faces each other across the sea. It has a great geographical advantage in exporting to Vietnam market. In particular, Vietnam exports to China mostly primary agricultural products and resource products, high value-added products are relatively less, product types are relatively single. The long-term trade deficit between Vietnam and China has had a lot of negative effects on Vietnam. First, Vietnam's trade deficit with China continues to consume Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves, greatly weakening Vietnam's ability to prevent and defuse international risks; secondly, Vietnam's trade deficit with China has seriously affected the stability of the value of the Vietnamese dong. As a result, the exchange rate of the RMB against the dong continues to rise and the appreciation rate is significant. Thirdly, the Vietnamese trade deficit largely affects the development of Vietnamese industry and commerce, especially against the healthy development of Vietnam's manufacturing industry. Finally, The long-term trade deficit between Vietnam and China threatens to worsen the sustainable development of the trade partnership between the two countries. The main measures to reduce the trade deficit between Vietnam and China are as follows: first, the Vietnamese government should provide a fair and favorable development environment for the development of Vietnamese enterprises from the macro level, promote the development of Vietnamese enterprises and enhance their competitiveness. Second, the Vietnamese government should increase investment in infrastructure and create convenient transportation conditions for Vietnamese enterprises' exports. Third, Vietnam should give full play to its comparative advantage and re-export its primary products to increase the value of its products. Fourth, Vietnam should optimize its export structure and increase its scientific and technological content and added value. In addition, the governments of Vietnam and China should further strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Vietnam, focus on developing border trade, and appropriately increase Chinese investment in Vietnam.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.33

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