中加天然气贸易可行性问题的系统建模和分析

发布时间：2018-05-25 22:07

本文选题：天然气 + 加拿大　；参考：《清华大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国天然气进口需求规模巨大且迅速增长,正在积极寻求多元化的天然气进口来源。加拿大天然气资源丰富,天然气主要出口到美国,在美国页岩气革命后开始积极寻求亚太LNG(液化天然气)出口市场。因此,发展中加天然气贸易符合两国各自利益。然而,目前国内外对于中加天然气贸易的可行性问题尚缺乏科学和系统的分析。因此,本文尝试基于系统分析、供应链建模和多标准决策方法,对中加天然气贸易的可行性问题开展系统建模和分析,重点研究三个问题:1)进口LNG在我国未来天然气供应中的战略地位?2)中加LNG贸易的工程经济性?3)加拿大在我国众多LNG进口来源中的竞争力?针对上述问题,本文研究方法和内容包括:1)通过绘制我国2012年天然气分配图,和探讨天然气战略和政策、天然气需求、天然气资源可供性、天然气基础设施4方面影响因素的现状和趋势,开展我国天然气整体供需趋势的系统分析,明确进口LNG在我国未来天然气供应中的战略地位;2)基于工程经济学方法,构建从加拿大到我国的LNG供应链的静态和动态经济评价模型,计算加拿大至我国的LNG到岸成本和中加签订25年LNG贸易合同的内部收益率,并进行敏感性分析;3)基于多标准决策方法,考虑LNG价格、天然气探明储量、政治稳定性、LNG出口能力和平均航运距离5个决策标准,针对我国包含加拿大在内的12个LNG进口气源国,建立我国LNG进口来源选择的多标准决策模型,计算和分析了加拿大在我国LNG进口来源选择中的优先级。通过上述研究,本文的主要发现如下:1)我国天然气供需缺口将日益扩大,而国内非常规气发展存在较大不确定性,管道气进口存在较大供应安全隐患,因此应更加重视进口LNG在我国未来天然气供应中的战略地位;2)从静态经济性分析结果看,加拿大在我国LNG进口来源中具有较强的成本竞争力,其到岸成本低于我国2013年大多数LNG进口来源的价格,存在一定的盈利空间;从动态经济性分析结果看,如果要保证签订中加25年的LNG贸易项目有15%的内部收益率,则到岸价格应高于17.35 US$/MMBtu(3.84元/立方米),而项目内部收益率将主要受到到岸价格和到岸成本的影响;3)多标准决策模型的计算结果表明,虽然加拿大目前没有LNG出口能力,但由于价格、资源和政治稳定性上的综合优势,其在所分析的我国12个LNG进口气源中的选择优先级居中。从敏感性分析结果看,加拿大LNG进口的优先级计算结果对5个决策准则的敏感性普遍较小。但是,如果未来加拿大天然气资源可供性和LNG出口能力同时大幅增长,将会大幅提高加拿大LNG进口的优先级。总体来看,加拿大在我国众多LNG进口来源中的竞争力尚可,推进中加LNG贸易将有利于我国LNG进口渠道的多元化。
[Abstract]:China's natural gas import demand is growing rapidly and it is actively seeking diversified sources of natural gas imports. Canada is rich in natural gas, mainly exported to the United States, after the U.S. shale gas revolution began to actively seek Asia-Pacific LNG (liquefied natural gas) export market. Therefore, it is in the interest of both countries to develop natural gas trade between China and Canada. However, there is still a lack of scientific and systematic analysis on the feasibility of natural gas trade between China and Canada at home and abroad. Therefore, based on system analysis, supply chain modeling and multi-standard decision methods, this paper attempts to model and analyze the feasibility of natural gas trade between China and Canada. This paper focuses on three questions: 1) the strategic position of imported LNG in China's future natural gas supply (2) the engineering economy of LNG trade between China and Canada (3) the competitiveness of Canada in many LNG import sources in China? In view of the above problems, the research methods and contents of this paper include: (1) drawing the natural gas distribution map of China in 2012, and discussing the natural gas strategy and policy, natural gas demand, and the availability of natural gas resources. The present situation and trend of four influencing factors of natural gas infrastructure, the systematic analysis of the overall supply and demand trend of natural gas in China, and the clear strategic position of imported LNG in the future natural gas supply of our country are based on the engineering economics method. The static and dynamic economic evaluation models of LNG supply chain from Canada to China are constructed to calculate the LNG landed cost from Canada to China and the internal rate of return of LNG trade contract signed by China and Canada for 25 years. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the basis of multi-standard decision method, considering five decision criteria, such as LNG price, proven reserves of natural gas, political stability, LNG export capacity and average shipping distance. For 12 LNG import gas source countries including Canada, a multi-standard decision model for LNG import source selection in China is established, and the priority of Canada in LNG import source selection in China is calculated and analyzed. Through the above research, the main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) the gap between supply and demand of natural gas in China will be widening day by day, while there is greater uncertainty in the development of unconventional gas in China, and there is a large hidden danger of supply safety in the import of pipeline gas. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the strategic position of imported LNG in China's future natural gas supply. The CIF cost is lower than the price of most LNG import sources in China in 2013, and there is some profit space. From the result of dynamic economic analysis, if we want to ensure that there is an internal return rate of 15% for the 25 year LNG trade project between China and Canada, Then the CIF price should be higher than 17.35 US$/MMBtu(3.84 / m3, and the internal rate of return of the project will be mainly affected by the CIF price and the CIF cost. The results of the multi-standard decision model show that, although Canada does not have the LNG export capacity at present, However, due to the comprehensive advantages of price, resources and political stability, its choice priority of the 12 LNG imported gas sources in China is in the middle. From the sensitivity analysis results, the sensitivity of the priority calculation results of Canadian LNG imports to the five decision criteria is generally less. However, if Canada's natural gas availability and LNG export capacity increase sharply in the future, Canada's LNG imports will be significantly higher priority. In general, Canada's competitiveness in China's many LNG import sources is fair, and the promotion of China-Canada LNG trade will be conducive to the diversification of China's LNG import channels.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.22;F752.7;F757.11

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