欧盟与中国乳制品贸易增长的原因和潜力的研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 14:24

本文选题：乳制品 + 引力模型　；参考：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在过去的几十年间,中国的乳制品产业正在飞速发展,逐渐成为了中国经济的支柱性产业之一。但是,乳制品产业仍存在着一些问题,如供给-需求不平衡、科技创新能力缺失、安全监管不严格等,导致中国现在仍是乳制品进口大国。目前,中国的乳制品进口来源较为单一,其乳制品的主要进口来源为新西兰。随着改革开放的进一步深入,中国已经开始与欧盟、澳大利亚、东盟等国家和地区展开或者签订了自由贸易协定。自由贸易协定的签订和自由贸易区的建立,将对中国的进出口贸易产生巨大的影响,特别是对于乳制品进口,将有可能改变中国的乳制品产业结构。因此,本文综合分析了中欧之间的贸易现状和发展趋势,并结合中国的乳制品产业发展现状和乳制品贸易现状,通过建立引力模型,研究中欧进口税减低对中国乳制品进口贸易的影响,最后对中欧贸易区的发展趋势和中国的应对策略进行了分析和建议。本文主要得到如下结论:1)虽然中国的乳制品产业保持快速而又稳定的增长,且具有非常大的发展潜力,中国的乳制品产品的附加价值不断上升,而且中国乳制品在国内市场还存在供给与需求不平衡的现象、科技创新能力缺失、安全监管不严格等问题。同事,欧盟能够提供质量保证,价格合理的乳制品。因此,欧盟对中国乳制品出口进一步增长存在有利的条件。2)过去二十年中欧乳制品贸易分析表明,欧盟对中国乳制品出口有利条件的外在的和内在的原因是这些:欧盟牛奶配额限制取消;欧盟市场牛奶价格不稳定的问题;俄罗斯食品禁运;中国人生活质量提高,牛奶消费模式有很大的变化;中国乳制品进口的条件有利;三聚氰胺事件与其他牛奶质量问题;欧盟品牌在中国的影响。3)中国的乳制品进口贸易存在贸易顺差巨大、进口来源集中、贸易依存度逐渐增加等现状。欧盟对中国乳制品出口增长的潜力很大。不过,在未来竞争仍将存在因为:别的国家,比如说新西兰,美国乳制品非常有竞争力;有快速增长的乳制品市场,比如说印度;中国乳制品质量也不断改进。同事,欧盟牛奶大部分是自给自足的,它的乳制品进口关税很高。因此,中国对欧盟乳制品出口增长的潜力不大。4)通过建立中欧乳制品贸易引力模型,发现:贸易双方国家的GDP与中国乳制品进口贸易量存在显著的正相关;中国人口数量与中国乳制品进口贸易量存在显著的正相关,而欧盟乳制品贸易伙伴国的人口数量与中国的乳制品进口不存在显著的相关性;贸易双方的距离因素对中国乳制品进口贸易不存在明显的相关性;中国的进口关税税率与乳制品进口贸易量之间存在显著的负相关;人民币-欧元之间的汇率与中国乳制品进口贸易量存在显著的负相关性。5)中国对欧盟乳制品进口关税税率的降低分析表明,如果中国队欧盟乳制品进口关税税率降低,还是两个国家签订自由贸易区协议,中国对欧盟乳制品进口额将大幅增加。6)针对上述结论,中国的应对策略包括:(1)审慎对待各种不利影响,正确应对各种问题;(2)进一步加快贸易自由化,加强国内经济建设;(3)密切关注欧元汇率在未来的走势并充分利用金融创新工具,以规避欧元兑人民币汇率波动所带来的风险。中国应该结合自身的经济发展状况,进一步加快贸易自由化的改革进程,尽快与欧盟达成自由贸易协定。如果中国与欧盟建立自由贸易区,将必然会促进中国从欧盟进口乳制品,这一方面会使中国居民能够享受到更多更加优质的乳制品产品,另一方面也将对中国的乳制品产业产生巨大的冲击。未来中国需要对本国乳制品相关企业的发展足够重视。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, China's dairy industry is developing rapidly and gradually become one of the pillar industries in China's economy. However, there are still some problems in the dairy industry, such as the imbalance of supply and demand, the lack of scientific and technological innovation ability, and the lack of strict safety supervision, which are still the major importers of dairy products. China has begun to launch or sign free trade agreements with the EU, Australia, ASEAN and other countries and regions with the further deepening of the reform and opening up. The free trade agreement and the establishment of free trade zones will be China The import and export trade has a great influence, especially for the import of dairy products, it will be possible to change the Chinese dairy industry structure. Therefore, this paper analyzes the trade status and development trend of China and Europe, and combines the present situation of China's dairy industry and the present situation of dairy trade, and studies China Europe through the establishment of gravitational model. In the end, the following conclusions are made as follows: 1) although China's dairy industry has maintained rapid and stable growth, and has great potential for development, China's dairy products Additional value is rising, and there is still a phenomenon of imbalance between supply and demand in China's dairy products, lack of scientific and technological innovation and strict safety supervision. The European Union can provide quality assurance, reasonable price of dairy products. Therefore, the EU has a favorable condition for the further growth of Chinese dairy exports,.2) The analysis of China EU dairy trade over the past twenty years shows that the external and internal reasons for the EU's favorable conditions for Chinese dairy exports are these: the abolition of the EU's milk quota restrictions, the instability of the milk price in the EU market, the Russian food embargo, the increase in the living quality of China's life, and the great change in the consumption pattern of milk in China; China The conditions for the import of dairy products are favorable; the melamine event and other milk quality problems; the influence of the EU brand in China.3) China's dairy import trade has a huge trade surplus, the import source and the increasing trade dependence. The European Union has a great potential for the growth of Chinese dairy exports. However, the future competition still remains. It will be: other countries, such as New Zealand, American dairy products are very competitive; there is a fast growing dairy market, such as India, the quality of dairy products in China is constantly improving. Colleagues, the European Union milk is mostly self-sufficient, its dairy import tariffs are very high. Therefore, China's growth potential for the EU dairy exports .4) by establishing a gravitational model of China European dairy trade, it is found that there is a significant positive correlation between the GDP of the countries of the trade and the import of Chinese dairy products; there is a significant positive correlation between the number of Chinese population and the import trade of dairy products in China, and the population of the EU's dairy trade partners and the import of dairy products in China There is no significant correlation; the distance between the two sides of the trade does not have a significant correlation with the import trade of Chinese dairy products; there is a significant negative correlation between China's import tariff rate and the import trade volume of dairy products; there is a significant negative correlation between the exchange rate between the RMB and the euro and the import trade of Chinese dairy products.5 China The analysis of the import tariff rate of European Union dairy products shows that if the import tariff rate of the Chinese European Union dairy products is reduced, the two countries sign the free trade zone agreement, China will increase the import of the EU dairy products by a large.6. In view of the above conclusion, China's Countermeasures include: (1) the correct treatment of various adverse effects, correct To deal with all kinds of problems; (2) to further accelerate trade liberalization and strengthen domestic economic construction; (3) pay close attention to the future trend of the exchange rate of the euro and make full use of financial innovation tools to avoid the risks caused by the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB. If China and the EU establish a free trade zone, China will inevitably promote the import of dairy products from the EU, which will enable Chinese residents to enjoy more quality dairy products, and on the other hand it will have a huge impact on China's dairy industry. China needs to pay enough attention to the development of its dairy related enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.82;F752.7

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