中俄石油天然气贸易影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 06:02

本文选题：国内生产总值 + 汇率　；参考：《河北大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油天然气作为人类社会赖以生存的物质基础,是经济发展和社会进步的必要条件。我国作为世界第二大能源消费国以及最大的发展中国家,油气安全已经成为我国经济社会快速发展的重要保障,因而也成为了各界包括学术研究领域的关注点。俄罗斯是世界主要的油气生产和出口大国之一,中俄两国油气贸易合作互补性强,在中俄外交关系良好,具有地缘优势的有利情势下,分析其影响因素进而更好保障我国的油气安全是很有必要的。本文首先在梳理国内外学者对于中俄油气贸易研究的基础上,对中俄油气贸易的现状、特点及其影响因素方面进行研究。然后结合我国实际情况,构建了VAR模型,并选取了我国经济发展水平、人均收入水平、我国对俄罗斯贸易开放度及我国油气消费量占生产量的比重四个指标,利用2000年至2013年的数据对中俄油气贸易影响因素进行了实证分析,其结论是中国油气消费量占生产量比重是影响中俄油气贸易额的最主要因素且具有正向相关性,说明中俄的油气贸易很大程度上是为了满足我国国内油气供应的空缺;同时中国经济发展水平和人均国民收入对中俄油气贸易同样具有正向相关性,虽然影响程度小于油气消费量占生产量比重因素,但是也不可忽视。最后结合非经济影响因素以及实证分析结果提出相关的对策建议:提高我国油气的有效供应、加强我国新能源的开发、保持我国经济稳定增长,逐步有序地开放我国油气贸易以及增进中俄两国之间互信与合作。
[Abstract]:As the material foundation of human society, oil and gas is a necessary condition for economic development and social progress. As the world's second largest energy consumer and the largest developing country, oil and gas security has become an important guarantee for the rapid development of China's economy and society, and has also become the focus of attention of all circles, including academic research. Russia is one of the major oil and gas production and export countries in the world. China and Russia are highly complementary in oil and gas trade cooperation. Under the favorable circumstances of good Sino-Russian diplomatic relations and geographical advantages, It is necessary to analyze the influencing factors and better protect the oil and gas safety in China. Based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research on oil and gas trade between China and Russia, the present situation, characteristics and influencing factors of oil and gas trade between China and Russia are studied in this paper. Then, according to the actual situation of our country, we construct the VAR model, and select four indexes: the level of our country's economic development, the level of per capita income, the degree of our country's trade openness to Russia and the proportion of our oil and gas consumption to production. Based on the data from 2000 to 2013, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of oil and gas trade between China and Russia. The conclusion is that the proportion of oil and gas consumption in production is the most important factor affecting the oil and gas trade between China and Russia and has positive correlation. It shows that the oil and gas trade between China and Russia is to a large extent to meet the vacancy of domestic oil and gas supply in China. At the same time, the level of China's economic development and per capita national income are also positively correlated with Sino-Russian oil and gas trade. Although the degree of influence is less than the proportion of oil and gas consumption to production, it can not be ignored. Finally, combined with non-economic factors and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions: to improve the effective supply of oil and gas in China, to strengthen the development of new energy in China, and to maintain the steady growth of our economy. Gradually and orderly opening up of China's oil and gas trade and enhancing mutual trust and cooperation between China and Russia.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.7

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