自由贸易协定下我国货物贸易结构变动的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 15:40

本文选题：自由贸易协定 + 货物贸易　；参考：《沈阳理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2002年11月4日与东盟签署《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》以来,标志着我国自由贸易区的发展进入一个新的阶段。截止2014年7月我国已陆续与12个国家或地区签订了自贸协定,并将逐步深化与其他多个国家的自贸区谈判协商,如海合会,挪威等。自由贸易协定的签署不仅对我国的经济发展和国际间贸易产生积极影响,也使我国货物进出口结构在一定程度上发生了改变。本文基于比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论、关税同盟理论和自由贸易区理论等理论基础,从我国自由贸易协定的签署历程,我国与自贸区伙伴和非自贸区伙伴的贸易结合度指数、贸易专业化指数、显示性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数等方面,以及运用面板数据模型等计量方法,选取了1996-2012年间的国别贸易数据,深入研究自由贸易协定对我国货物进出口结构变动的影响。通过实证研究发现:自由贸易协定对扩大我国货物贸易出口规模与改善货物出口结构均具有一定影响,且这种影响会随时间的变化而变动。自由贸易协定签署初期,我国与贸易伙伴之间的贸易流量(贸易规模)出现较明显增长,之后趋于平稳;同时,自由贸易协定显著改善了我国货物贸易出口结构,但不同自由贸易协定对不同类别货物的出口结构影响不尽相同。同时,自由贸易协定的签署在整体上对我国货物贸易进口规模和进口结构改善起到较大的推动作用,不同自贸区对我国货物贸易进口的影响也不尽相同。早期与我国签署自贸协定的国家或地区目前都表现出良好的发展趋势,对我国各类货物贸易的进口都起到推动作用;后期与我国签署自贸协定的国家或地区也都在一定程度上对我国进口贸易起到一定的促进作用,特别是贸易基数、规模较大的自贸区。此外,有一些自贸区因发展潜力受限或发展潜力没有充分发掘等因素,对进口波动指数表现出趋于稳定影响,但因其影响力与规模较小,对我国的进口贸易影响不大。
[Abstract]:Since the signing of the China ASEAN Framework Agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation with ASEAN in November 4, 2002, the development of China's free trade zone has entered a new stage. By the end of July 2014, China has signed a free trade agreement with 12 countries or regions, and will gradually deepen the negotiation and negotiation of the free trade zone with other countries, such as the sea. Norway and so on. The signing of the free trade agreement not only has a positive impact on the economic development and international trade of our country, but also changes the import and export structure of our country. Based on the theory of comparative advantage, the theory of factor endowment, the theory of Customs Union and the theory of free trade area, this article is from our country. From the signing process of the trade agreement, China's trade union with FTA partners and non trade zone partners, trade specialization index, display comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index, as well as the use of panel data models, selected the country trade data of 1996-2012 years, and studied free trade in depth. The effect of the easy agreement on the change of the import and export structure of China's goods. Through the empirical study, it is found that the free trade agreement has a certain influence on the expansion of the export size of goods trade and the improvement of the export structure of goods, and the effect will change with the time. At the same time, the free trade agreement significantly improved the export structure of goods trade in China, but the different free trade agreements have different effects on the export structure of different categories of goods. The improvement of the structure of the mouth has played an important role in promoting the import of goods trade in China. The countries or regions that signed the trade agreements with our country at the early stage have shown a good trend of development and the import of all kinds of goods trade in our country. Home or region also plays a certain role in promoting China's import trade to a certain extent, especially the trade base and large scale free trade area. In addition, some of the free trade zones have some factors such as limited development potential or development potential, which have a stable impact on the import volatility index table, but because of its influence and scale Smaller, it has little impact on China's import trade.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F744;F752.6

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