汇率波动对马拉维贸易收支的影响

发布时间：2018-06-16 19:43

本文选题：汇率 + 贸易收支　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本研究通过评估汇率波动对进出口的影响并分析其与整体贸易收支的关系,来估计汇率波动对马拉维贸易收支的影响。本研究的指导假设是马拉维的汇率波动和贸易收支有正相关关系。自1980年以来,尽管马拉维政府采取了多项贸易政策和货币政策调整措施,但马拉维的贸易收支仍保持赤字。赤字主要是由以下几个方面原因造成的:贸易竞争力不足、生产力有限、国内外贸易联系和体制不健全、缺乏多元化、缺乏竞争性的地方产业以及汇率的波动性。尽管双边、地区和多边层面的贸易协定提供了大量的市场准入机会,但贸易逆差仍在持续增长。一部分逆差是因为马拉维经济过度依赖进口产品,这些进口品对于经济运转不可或缺,其中的一些主要产品和商品包括肥料、石油产品、运输设备、药品、医疗设备、军事武器、汽车、电器、印刷材料和消费食品等。在上个世纪,马拉维政府实施多种货币政策并尝试各种汇率制度以维持对名义汇率的控制,并将其作为工具以促进经济增长和保护消费者和投资者免受通货膨胀的影响。然而,汇率制度的变化加之国内政策冲击、外部经济冲击和气候冲击,都影响了马拉维货币价值的波动性及其竞争力。本研究的目的是实证估计汇率波动对马拉维贸易平衡的影响,我们采用1994-2015年期间的年度时间序列数据,选取进出口额、马拉维实际汇率、马拉维和美国的消费者价格指数(2010=100)与国内外GDP作为研究变量,并运用均值调整相对变化统计模型(Mean Adjusted Relative Change Statistical Model)来估计波动率。在进一步的检验中,我们使用广义迪基-富勒(ADF)单位根检验来考察数据的平稳性,发现大多数变量是二阶平稳的。我们还运用约翰森协整模型检验各数据序列是否存在协整关系,例如进(出)口、国内(外)收入、进出口品相对价格(以实际汇率)以及实际汇率波动率等。在此基础上,我们利用OLS回归估计波动率对贸易收支的影响。整体研究的结果表明,实际汇率波动对马拉维的贸易收支有正向影响,尽管影响幅度不是很大。其传导机制在于,虽然汇率波动影响出口增长,但同时更为迅速地影响进口增长,而且影响幅度超过了出口增量,因为马拉维是一个进口密集型国家。本研究还认为,马拉维的贸易赤字并不表明经济遭遇困境(例如统计数据表明马维拉经济持续增长),而是表明国内需求和投资在不断增长,因此对于马拉维政府而言,需要把工作重点放在减少和消除贸易壁垒上,以此鼓励贸易增长。另一个结论是,马拉维的货币贬值从长远来看能有效改善贸易收支,但在短期内贸易收支反而会恶化。因此,贸易收支对汇率波动的反应似乎符合马歇尔勒纳条件,即贬值在长期内能改善贸易收支平衡。
[Abstract]:This study estimates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Malawi's trade balance by assessing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on imports and exports and analyzing the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the overall trade balance. The guiding hypothesis of this study is that there is a positive correlation between Malawi's exchange rate fluctuations and trade balance. Malawi's trade balance has remained in deficit since 1980, despite a number of trade and monetary policy adjustments. The deficit is mainly caused by the following reasons: insufficient trade competitiveness, limited productivity, imperfect domestic and foreign trade links and systems, lack of diversification, lack of competitive local industries and exchange rate volatility. Although bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements offer plenty of market access, the trade deficit continues to grow. Part of the deficit is due to Malawi's overdependence on imports, which are essential to the functioning of the economy. Some of the main products and commodities include fertilizers, petroleum products, transportation equipment, medicines, medical equipment, Military weapons, automobiles, electrical appliances, printed materials and consumer food. In the last century, the Malawi government implemented a variety of monetary policies and tried various exchange rate regimes to maintain control of the nominal exchange rate and to use it as a tool to promote economic growth and protect consumers and investors from inflation. However, the changes of exchange rate regime and the impact of domestic policies, external economic shocks and climate shocks all affect the volatility and competitiveness of Malawi's monetary value. The purpose of this study is to empirically estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Malawi's trade balance. We use the annual time series data for the period 1994-2015 to select imports and exports, and Malawi's real exchange rate. Malawi and the United States consumer price index 2010 / 100) and domestic and foreign Adjusted as research variables, and the mean adjusted relative change statistical model can be used to estimate volatility. In the further test we use the generalized Dick-Fuller 's unit root test to investigate the stationarity of the data and find that most variables are second-order stationary. We also use Johansen cointegration model to test whether there are cointegration relationships among data sequences, such as in / out port, domestic (external) income, relative price of imports and exports (at the real exchange rate) and real exchange rate volatility. On this basis, we use OLS regression to estimate the impact of volatility on trade balance. The results of the overall study show that the real exchange rate fluctuations have a positive impact on Malawi's trade balance, although the extent of the impact is not very large. The transmission mechanism is that, while exchange rate fluctuations affect export growth, they also affect import growth more rapidly than export increments, as Malawi is an import-intensive country. The study also considers that Malawi's trade deficit does not indicate economic distress (for example, statistics show that the Mavila economy continues to grow, but rather that domestic demand and investment are growing, so for the Government of Malawi, Efforts need to be focused on reducing and removing trade barriers to encourage trade growth. Another conclusion is that Malawi's currency depreciation can effectively improve its trade balance in the long run, but in the short term it will worsen. Therefore, the response of trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations seems to be in line with Marshall Lerner's condition that depreciation can improve the balance of trade in the long run.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F742

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