中国服务贸易出口规模影响因素的理论及实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-19 04:40

本文选题：服务贸易 + 出口规模　；参考：《安徽工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的深入发展,世界产业结构的调整,国际产业重心逐渐向服务业调整,服务贸易在国际贸易中占据重要位置。中国服务贸易虽然持续稳步增长,但是服务贸易逆差呈现出逐年扩大的趋势。因此,本文以中国服务贸易出口规模为切入点,结合中国服务贸易发展现状,通过理论和实证分析中国服务贸易出口规模的影响因素,依据研究结果对如何扩大中国服务贸易出口规模,扭转服务贸易逆差提供政策建议。首先,本文阐述了比较优势理论和竞争优势理论的核心观点及其对服务贸易的适用性,并从经济发展水平、技术进步、人力资本、外商直接投资、经济发展规模、金融市场发展及其他影响因素方面具体的对一国服务贸易出口规模的影响机制分别进行细致分析。第三章就中国服务贸易的发展现状进行全面分析,并从TC指数、RCA指数、CA指数三个方面对中国服务贸易国际竞争力水平进行测度,得出中国服务贸易整体上处于竞争劣势,中国服务贸易分部门发展极其不均衡。第四章选取了中国1990-2012年度数据,对影响中国服务贸易出口规模的因素进行实证分析。利用逐步回归法消除各变量之间的多重共线性后,得出国内生产总值、外商直接投资、货物贸易出口、RD经费支出和汇率的变动这五个因素与中国服务贸易出口有正相关关系,金融深化度这个变量对中国服务贸易出口有负向影响。最后,在上述研究的基础上,提出中国要合理规划服务贸易的总目标和结构目标、加强重点部门服务贸易的发展力度、完善服务贸易管理体系、进一步提高经济效率、健全中国金融体系、合理引导外商直接投资流向、充分发挥货物贸易的联动效应、增强服务贸易部门自主研发能力和完善人民币汇率形成机制来扩大中国服务贸易出口规模,从而促进中国服务贸易持续科学的发展。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and the adjustment of world industrial structure, the center of gravity of international industry is gradually adjusted to service industry. Service trade occupies an important position in international trade. Although China's service trade continues to grow steadily, the trade deficit in services is increasing year by year. Therefore, this paper takes the export scale of China's service trade as the starting point, combines the current situation of China's service trade development, and analyzes the influencing factors of the scale of China's service trade export through theory and empirical analysis. Based on the results of the study, policy suggestions are provided on how to expand the scale of China's service trade exports and reverse the trade deficit in services. First of all, this paper expounds the core views of comparative advantage theory and competitive advantage theory and their applicability to service trade, and from the level of economic development, technological progress, human capital, foreign direct investment, economic development scale. In the aspect of financial market development and other influencing factors, the influence mechanism of a country's export scale of service trade is analyzed in detail. The third chapter analyzes the current situation of China's service trade, and measures the international competitiveness level of China's service trade from three aspects of TC index and RCA index, and concludes that China's service trade is at a competitive disadvantage on the whole. The development of the subsector of China's trade in services is extremely uneven. Chapter four analyzes the factors that influence the export scale of China's service trade. By using the stepwise regression method to eliminate the multiple collinearity between variables, it is concluded that five factors, such as GDP, foreign direct investment, R D expenditure and exchange rate change, have positive correlation with China's service trade exports. The degree of financial deepening has a negative impact on China's export of service trade. Finally, on the basis of the above research, it is proposed that China should rationally plan the overall objectives and structural objectives of service trade, strengthen the development of service trade in key sectors, improve the management system of service trade, and further improve economic efficiency. We should improve China's financial system, rationally guide the flow of foreign direct investment, give full play to the linkage effect of trade in goods, strengthen the independent R & D capability of the service trade sector and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to expand the scale of China's service trade exports. So as to promote the sustainable scientific development of China's service trade.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68;F752.62

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