美国量化宽松货币政策对中美贸易的溢出效应

发布时间：2018-07-12 18:28

本文选题：量化宽松 + 溢出效应　；参考：《云南财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年美国金融危机严重破坏了美国的经济,使得美国的市场遭到巨大的冲击,为了减弱此次金融危机的破坏,恢复本国的市场,美联储实施了多轮量化宽松货币政策,并将利率调整为零。量化宽松政策的理论研究起源于美国南安普顿大学的Werner(1991),其区别于传统的货币政策,不是简单的降息与增加货币供给,而是通过量化规模实现既定的政策目标。而后在2001年日本首次实施了量化宽松货币政策来刺激本国经济,期间为量化宽松政策的实际实施提供了大量的研究数据,从而丰富了量化宽松政策的理论体系并且为量化宽松政策的实施提供了具体依据。本文对美国量化宽松政策的理论依据、目标以及政策效果做出了详细的分析,理论基于货币非中性理论、克鲁格曼的“流动性陷阱”理论与金融加速其理论,美国基于量化宽松政策的理论结合此次金融危机对美国经济的冲击对此次量化宽松政策制定了具体的政策目标,包括稳定市场、稳定物价、刺激经济和稳定就业等,取得的经济复苏效果明显,并且量化宽松政策的实施效果不仅仅局限于国内,其还对外国的经济产生了连带的影响,中国作为其贸易伙伴,两国之间的贸易规模巨大,美国的量化宽松货币政策通过多种渠道对中国的经济贸易产生影响,文章针对美国的量化宽松政策对中国贸易的溢出效应分别进行了实证分析和理论分析。对于国际宏观经济的研究模型,本文采用的是蒙代尔-弗莱明-多恩布什模型与新开放经济宏观经济学模型。前者由蒙代尔(Mundell,1963)与弗莱明(Fleming,1962)在20世纪60年代早期,基于凯恩斯分析框架提出,而后多恩布什在此基础上加入了预见性假设,完善了蒙代尔-弗莱明-多恩布什模型,模型认为影响国际间宏观经济传导的因素主要包括国内需求、国外需求、汇率与利率等因素;新开放经济宏观经济学模型是由奥伯斯特菲尔德(ObstfeldRogoff,1995)创建,其分析框架是基于两国动态一般均衡模型构建的,模型认为影响国际间宏观经济传导的因素主要包括居民消费、汇率方面的价格粘性和垄断竞争等。文章对美国量化宽松政策对中国贸易的溢出效应的理论分析在基于以上两个模型的基础上还添加了马歇尔-勒那条件作为对于汇率变动是如何影响发达国家与发展中国家的分析,主要表现为中国的进出口总额与美国的进出口总额如何随着汇率的改变而改变。同时本文在理论分析的基础上结合中国与美国近年来的月度贸易数据和美国国内的CPI、PPI与汇率等因素,根据VAR模型对美国量化宽松货币政策对中国贸易的溢出效应做了实证分析,分别对美国M2、美国CPI、美国PPI、美国国内消费者信心指数和汇率对中国进出口总额、中国进口额以及中国出口额作了分析,包括对模型变量的格兰杰因果检验、脉冲效应等。实证结果显示,在短期来看美国的量化宽松货币政策对中国的贸易存在正的溢出效应,但是从长期来看会对中国的贸易存在负面效应。针对实证结果文章结合中国目前的经济现状给出了五条政策建议,包括扩大内需、优化产业结构、加速推进人民币国际化、完善信用体系和多元化贸易结构。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the American financial crisis seriously damaged the American economy and made the market of the United States greatly impacted. In order to weaken the destruction of the financial crisis and restore its market, the Federal Reserve implemented the multi round quantitative easing monetary policy and adjusted the interest rate to zero. The theoretical research on the quantitative loosening policy originated in Southampton, America. Werner (1991), which is different from the traditional monetary policy, is not a simple interest rate reduction and an increase in money supply, but a fixed policy goal by quantifying the scale. In 2001, the first implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan to stimulate the domestic economy provided a great deal of research for the practical implementation of the quantitative easing policy. It enriches the theoretical system of quantitative easing policy and provides a specific basis for the implementation of quantitative easing policy. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the theoretical basis, objectives and policy effects of the quantitative easing policy in the United States. The theory is based on the non neutral theory of money, Krugman's "liquidity trap" theory and financial addition. The theory that the quantitative easing policy based on the theory of quantitative easing combined with the impact of the financial crisis on the US economy has formulated specific policy objectives for this quantitative easing policy, including stabilizing the market, stabilizing prices, stimulating the economy and stabilizing employment and so on. The effect of economic recovery is obvious, and the effect of quantitative easing policy is not effective. Only in China, it also has a joint impact on the foreign economy. China, as its trading partner, has a large scale of trade between the two countries. The quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States has an impact on China's economic and trade through a variety of channels. The article aims at the spillover effect of the United States' quantitative easing policy on China's trade. This paper uses the Mundell Fleming Dombush model and the New Open Economy Macroeconomics model. The former is made by Mundell (Mundell, 1963) and Fleming (Fleming, 1962) in the early 1960s, based on the Keynes analysis framework, and then more. On this basis, Nbush added the foreseeable hypothesis and perfected the Mundell Fleming Dombush model. The model believed that the factors affecting the international macro-economic transmission mainly include domestic demand, foreign demand, exchange rate and interest rate and so on. The new open economy macroeconomic model is Obstfeld (ObstfeldRogoff, 1995). The analysis framework is based on the dynamic general equilibrium model of the two countries. The model holds that the factors that affect the international macro-economic transmission mainly include the consumption of residents, the price stickiness of the exchange rate and the monopoly competition. The theoretical analysis of the spillover effects of quantitative easing policy on China's trade in the United States is based on the two models above. On the basis of the model, the Marshall LNA condition is also added to the analysis of how the exchange rate changes affect the developed countries and the developing countries. The main expression is how the total import and export of China and the total import and export of the United States change with the exchange rate. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper combines China and the United States in recent years. The monthly trade data and the CPI, PPI and exchange rate in the United States are used to make an empirical analysis on the spillover effect of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's trade according to the VAR model, respectively, for American M2, US CPI, American PPI, American domestic consumer confidence index and foreign exchange rate for China's total import and export, China's import and China. The export volume is analyzed, including the Grainger causality test and the pulse effect on the model variables. The empirical results show that the quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States has a positive spillover effect on China's trade in the short term, but it will have a negative effect on China's trade in the long run. Five policy suggestions are given, including expanding domestic demand, optimizing industrial structure, accelerating the internationalization of RMB, improving the credit system and diversified trade structure.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F827.12

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