考虑需求信息更新的损失规避零售商多期权合约订货策略研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 09:44

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展,企业间的竞争日趋激烈。面对竞争,供应链成员可以通过缔结供应链合约绑定共同利益,从而使目标更加趋于一致。在经济社会的高速发展的过程中,消费者的个性化需求不断增强,并且产品更新速度不断提高,从而导致市场需求的波动性加大。而面对不确定市场需求环境时,供应链成员一方面可以通过购买期权合约来规避不确定需求带来的影响,另外一方面可以利用信息更新降低需求的不确定性。同时,越来越多的研究发现供应链决策者不仅仅最大化自身的期望收益,更多的决策者表现出具有诸如损失规避、风险厌恶等偏好。为此,本文考虑需求信息更新及决策者个人具有损失规避偏好情况下,研究不确定需求市场环境下零售商的多期权合约订货策略。本文在需求信息更新和现货市场环境下,引入期权机制,建立具有一定柔性的两阶段订货模型,研究损失规避零售商的订货策略的问题。探讨了损失规避零售商在第二阶段根据市场需求与现货市场商品价格,如何选择期权合约的执行数量与现货市场的购买量,以及在第一阶段中如何选择期权合约的订购量,解决了损失规避零售商使用期权合约中一个重要的决策问题。并且研究了在混合市场中损失规避零售商签订期权合约后,制造商的最优生产决策问题。研究表明,损失规避零售商的订货决策问题存在最优解,并随着市场需求信息更新而变化。为了研究期权合约的潜在价值,我们引入了预期单位机会节约的概念,用以衡量损失规避零售商在不同市场中使用期权带来的单位效益。此外,我们详细比较了混合市场与纯现货市场,混合市场与纯期权合约市场的不同情景,从而分析研究现货市场和期权合约市场供需竞争之间的影响。此篇文章有助于开发相对直观的期权合约模型,相比于其他随机现货市场和需求信息环境下供应链中的供应期权合约研究,给出了一些新的见解。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the competition between enterprises is becoming more and more fierce. In the face of competition, supply chain members can bind common interests by concluding supply chain contracts, thus making the objectives more consistent. In the process of rapid development of economy and society, the individualized demand of consumers is increasing, and the speed of product renewal is increasing, which leads to the increasing volatility of market demand. In the face of uncertain market demand environment, supply chain members can avoid the impact of uncertain demand by purchasing option contracts on the one hand, and reduce the uncertainty of demand by updating information on the other. At the same time, more and more researches have found that supply chain decision makers not only maximize their own expected income, but also have such preferences as loss aversion and risk aversion. Therefore, in this paper, considering the demand information update and the individual preference of loss aversion, we study the multi-option contract ordering strategy of retailers in uncertain demand market environment. In this paper, under the demand information update and spot market environment, the option mechanism is introduced, and the two-stage ordering model with certain flexibility is established, and the problem of the order strategy of the loss aversion retailer is studied. In the second stage, according to the market demand and the commodity price in the spot market, the author discusses how to select the quantity of the execution of the option contract and the purchase amount of the spot market, and how to select the order quantity of the option contract in the first stage. It solves an important decision problem in the use of option contracts by loss aversion retailers. The optimal production decision of the manufacturer in mixed market is studied after the loss evading retailer signs the option contract. It is shown that there is an optimal solution to the order decision problem of loss averse retailers and it changes with the updating of market demand information. In order to study the potential value of option contracts, we introduce the concept of expected unit opportunity savings, which is used to measure the unit benefit brought by the use of options by loss-averse retailers in different markets. In addition, we compare the different scenarios between the mixed market and the pure spot market, the mixed market and the pure option contract market in detail, so as to analyze the influence of the competition between supply and demand in the spot market and the option contract market. This paper is helpful to develop a relatively intuitive option contract model. Compared with other supply options contracts in stochastic spot market and demand information environment, this paper gives some new ideas.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F724.2

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