贸易增加值视角下中国服务出口国际竞争力研究
发布时间：2018-08-20 16:53
【摘要】：服务贸易在全球贸易中的地位日益上升,在2015年服务贸易总额在全球贸易总额中占比达到22.2%,超过1/5。在这一背景之下,中国服务贸易也在以惊人的速度不断增长,但在进口规模和出口规模保持高速增长的同时,也伴随着服务贸易逆差的日益扩大。随着中间品贸易的普及,国际分工模式逐渐转向产业内分工和产品内分工,"世界制造"逐渐替代"国家制造"成为产品的新标签,全球价值链逐渐成为全球贸易格局的新主导。不仅如此,伴随中间产品多次跨境流通的是价值增值在每一次流通中的重复计算,带来贸易规模虚高的现象。所以在贸易增加值核算法下重新核算中国服务出口和其国际竞争力水平,并在此基础上确定中国服务出口国际竞争力的影响因素,对于明确中国服务出口的真实贸易利益、提升其在全球价值链分工中的国际竞争力水平具有十分重要的意义。本文基于贸易增加值核算法—KPWW法和2016年WIOD最新发布的世界投入产出表计算了中国2000-2014年30个服务行业的出口国内增加值,并在行业层面和整体层面与传统的服务出口额进行了纵向、横向比较。结果发现中国传统贸易统计方法下的服务出口总额被高估的程度在45%以上,但高估率是在逐渐递减的;分行业来看,建筑业(c27),航空运输(c33)等行业的服务出口额被高估程度最大,其出口额中有一半以上的要素增加值是由其他国家所创造的。在出口国内增加值的基础上对衡量国际竞争力的国际市场占有率和显性比较优势指数两个指标做了一定的改进,并据此测算了中国30个服务行业的出口国际竞争力,通过与传统贸易统计方法下的结果进行对比发现,整体上的国际市场占有率差异较小,但分行业来看不少行业的国际竞争力在传统方法下被高估。通过贸易增加值视角下中国服务出口国际竞争力影响因素的实证分析发现,产值、人均固定资产投资占用额和制造业出口国内增加值对劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业的出口国内增加值产生正向影响;外商直接投资、人民币汇率、人均可支配收入则是对技术密集型和知识密集型行业的出口国际竞争力产生正向影响。最后提出政策建议,认为中国需要在提升国际分工地位的前提下,通过改善国内生产要素结构、合理利用外资等方式来保持优势行业的竞争优势和改变劣势行业的竞争地位。
[Abstract]:Trade in services is rising in global trade, accounting for 22. 2% of total global trade in 2015, more than a fifth of the total. In this context, China's trade in services is growing at an alarming rate, but with the rapid growth of import and export, the trade deficit in services is also expanding day by day. With the popularization of intermediate goods trade, the international division of labor gradually shifts to intra-industry division and intra-product division. "made in the world" gradually replaces "national manufacturing" as a new label of products, and the global value chain gradually becomes the new dominant pattern of global trade. Not only that, but also the repeated calculation of value added in each circulation, which brings the phenomenon that the scale of trade is false. Therefore, the re-accounting of China's service exports and its level of international competitiveness under the trade value-added accounting method, and the determination of the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's service exports on the basis of this, will make clear the true trade interests of China's service exports. It is of great significance to improve its international competitiveness in the division of labor in global value chain. Based on the trade value added accounting method-KPWW method and the world input-output table published by WIOD in 2016, this paper calculates the export domestic value added of 30 service industries in China from 2000 to 2014. And in the industry level and the overall level with the traditional service exports vertical, horizontal comparison. The results show that the total export of services is overvalued by more than 45%, but the rate of overestimation is decreasing gradually under the traditional trade statistics method of China, and the services exports of construction industry (C27), air transport (C33) and other industries are the most overvalued by industries, such as construction industry (C27), air transport industry (C33) and so on. More than half of its exports are created by other countries. On the basis of domestic added value of exports, this paper improves the two indexes of international market share and explicit comparative advantage index to measure international competitiveness, and calculates the export international competitiveness of 30 service industries in China. By comparing with the results of the traditional trade statistics method, it is found that the overall international market share difference is small, but the international competitiveness of many industries is overestimated under the traditional method. Through the empirical analysis of the factors influencing the international competitiveness of China's service exports from the perspective of added value of trade, it is found that the output value, The per capita occupation of fixed assets investment and the domestic value added of manufacturing exports have a positive impact on the domestic value added of labor-intensive industries and capital-intensive industries; foreign direct investment, RMB exchange rate, Per capita disposable income has a positive impact on the export competitiveness of technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward, which suggest that China should maintain the competitive advantage and change the competitive position of the inferior industries by improving the structure of domestic factors of production and utilizing foreign capital rationally on the premise of enhancing the position of international division of labor.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68
本文编号：2194333
[Abstract]:Trade in services is rising in global trade, accounting for 22. 2% of total global trade in 2015, more than a fifth of the total. In this context, China's trade in services is growing at an alarming rate, but with the rapid growth of import and export, the trade deficit in services is also expanding day by day. With the popularization of intermediate goods trade, the international division of labor gradually shifts to intra-industry division and intra-product division. "made in the world" gradually replaces "national manufacturing" as a new label of products, and the global value chain gradually becomes the new dominant pattern of global trade. Not only that, but also the repeated calculation of value added in each circulation, which brings the phenomenon that the scale of trade is false. Therefore, the re-accounting of China's service exports and its level of international competitiveness under the trade value-added accounting method, and the determination of the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's service exports on the basis of this, will make clear the true trade interests of China's service exports. It is of great significance to improve its international competitiveness in the division of labor in global value chain. Based on the trade value added accounting method-KPWW method and the world input-output table published by WIOD in 2016, this paper calculates the export domestic value added of 30 service industries in China from 2000 to 2014. And in the industry level and the overall level with the traditional service exports vertical, horizontal comparison. The results show that the total export of services is overvalued by more than 45%, but the rate of overestimation is decreasing gradually under the traditional trade statistics method of China, and the services exports of construction industry (C27), air transport (C33) and other industries are the most overvalued by industries, such as construction industry (C27), air transport industry (C33) and so on. More than half of its exports are created by other countries. On the basis of domestic added value of exports, this paper improves the two indexes of international market share and explicit comparative advantage index to measure international competitiveness, and calculates the export international competitiveness of 30 service industries in China. By comparing with the results of the traditional trade statistics method, it is found that the overall international market share difference is small, but the international competitiveness of many industries is overestimated under the traditional method. Through the empirical analysis of the factors influencing the international competitiveness of China's service exports from the perspective of added value of trade, it is found that the output value, The per capita occupation of fixed assets investment and the domestic value added of manufacturing exports have a positive impact on the domestic value added of labor-intensive industries and capital-intensive industries; foreign direct investment, RMB exchange rate, Per capita disposable income has a positive impact on the export competitiveness of technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward, which suggest that China should maintain the competitive advantage and change the competitive position of the inferior industries by improving the structure of domestic factors of production and utilizing foreign capital rationally on the premise of enhancing the position of international division of labor.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68
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