中国对非洲贸易与投资的多边阻力及其空间溢出效应
发布时间：2018-08-26 07:48
【摘要】：在全球化时代,国与国之间的关系不仅受到双边因素的影响,而且受到其它国家的影响,即存在“第三方效应”,中非的经贸关系也毫不例外。目前,非洲已经成为中国第四大海外投资目的地和十大贸易伙伴之一,而中国则已经连续五年成为非洲最大的贸易伙伴。尽管中国和非洲在双方经济中扮演着日益重要的角色,但是中非的经贸合作也受到了“多边阻力”的影响。大国之间围绕非洲丰富的能源、资源和广阔的市场三个领域进行着激烈的竞争,都企图在非洲大陆分一杯羹,但国与国的竞争过程中,既有冲突也有合作。 本研究聚焦大国对非贸易与投资的多边影响,在实证分析中以非洲6个主要贸易伙伴国和投资来源国2003-2012年间对非洲33个国家的数据作为样本,对中国对非贸易与投资的时空变化特征、影响因素、以及国与国之间的交互影响进行了详实的分析。首先,本文从时间和空间两个维度,分析中国对非贸易与投资的时空演变过程,发现中国对非贸易与投资的规模和增长率表现出了显著的地区差异,而且全球金融危机对非洲的贸易与投资产生了负面的冲击。其次,与传统的OLS回归模型不同的是,本文运用了较为前沿的空间计量经济学技术手段,对中国对非贸易与投资的多边影响进行了实证分析,发现中国对非贸易与投资存在显著的第三方效应,而且中国对非洲的直接投资可以确认为复合-垂直模式；基于影响因素的分析表明中国对非贸易与投资呈现出显著的市场寻求和资源寻求动机,非洲国家的经济开放度、制度因素和基础设施亦在其中发挥了作用；而且解释变量的空间滞后项也对贸易投资规模产生了影响,后者的影响表明了空间溢出效应的存在。再次,从大国对非贸易之间的交互影响角度出发,分析了大国对非贸易之间存在的竞争或互补效应,结果发现不管是进口贸易还是出口贸易抑或贸易总量均表现出互补效应；而基于动态视角的分析表明,这种互补效应在样本期间并未出现大的变化,大国对非的出口贸易互补效应要大于贸易总额互补效应,贸易总额互补效应大于进口贸易互补效应。采用不同的空间权重矩阵进行的稳健性分析表明,贸易与投资的空间相关仍然显著,本文其它的主要结论仍然成立。
[Abstract]:In the era of globalization, the relations between countries are not only affected by bilateral factors, but also by other countries, that is, the "third party effect", and the economic and trade relations between China and Africa are no exception. Africa has become China's fourth largest overseas investment destination and one of its top 10 trading partners, while China has become Africa's largest trading partner for the fifth year in a row. Although China and Africa play an increasingly important role in both economies, economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa has also been affected by "multilateral resistance." There is fierce competition among the big powers over Africa's abundant energy resources and vast markets. They all try to get a share of the African continent but there are conflicts and cooperation in the process of competition between countries. This study focuses on the multilateral impact of large countries on non-trade and investment, using data from 6 major African trading partners and countries of origin of investment as a sample for 33 countries in Africa between 2003 and 2012. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial changes of China's non-trade and investment, the influencing factors, and the interaction between countries. First of all, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of China's non-trade and investment from two dimensions of time and space, and finds that the scale and growth rate of China's non-trade and investment show significant regional differences. And the global financial crisis has had a negative impact on trade and investment in Africa. Secondly, different from the traditional OLS regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the multilateral impact of China on non-trade and investment by using the advanced spatial econometric techniques. It is found that there is a significant third party effect in China's trade and investment in Africa, and China's direct investment in Africa can be confirmed as a composite vertical model. The analysis based on the influencing factors shows that China has obvious market and resource seeking motives for Africa's trade and investment, and the economic openness, institutional factors and infrastructure of African countries also play a role in it. The spatial lag term of the explanatory variable also has an effect on the scale of trade and investment, which indicates the existence of spatial spillover effect. Thirdly, from the point of view of the interaction between big countries and non-trade, this paper analyzes the competition or complementary effects between big countries and non-trade. The results show that both import trade, export trade and total trade show complementary effects. The analysis based on dynamic perspective shows that this complementary effect has not changed greatly during the sample period. The complementary effect of export trade to Africa is greater than that of total trade, and the complementary effect of total trade is greater than that of import trade. The robust analysis using different spatial weight matrices shows that the spatial correlation between trade and investment is still significant and other main conclusions of this paper are still valid.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F224
本文编号：2204204
[Abstract]:In the era of globalization, the relations between countries are not only affected by bilateral factors, but also by other countries, that is, the "third party effect", and the economic and trade relations between China and Africa are no exception. Africa has become China's fourth largest overseas investment destination and one of its top 10 trading partners, while China has become Africa's largest trading partner for the fifth year in a row. Although China and Africa play an increasingly important role in both economies, economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa has also been affected by "multilateral resistance." There is fierce competition among the big powers over Africa's abundant energy resources and vast markets. They all try to get a share of the African continent but there are conflicts and cooperation in the process of competition between countries. This study focuses on the multilateral impact of large countries on non-trade and investment, using data from 6 major African trading partners and countries of origin of investment as a sample for 33 countries in Africa between 2003 and 2012. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial changes of China's non-trade and investment, the influencing factors, and the interaction between countries. First of all, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of China's non-trade and investment from two dimensions of time and space, and finds that the scale and growth rate of China's non-trade and investment show significant regional differences. And the global financial crisis has had a negative impact on trade and investment in Africa. Secondly, different from the traditional OLS regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the multilateral impact of China on non-trade and investment by using the advanced spatial econometric techniques. It is found that there is a significant third party effect in China's trade and investment in Africa, and China's direct investment in Africa can be confirmed as a composite vertical model. The analysis based on the influencing factors shows that China has obvious market and resource seeking motives for Africa's trade and investment, and the economic openness, institutional factors and infrastructure of African countries also play a role in it. The spatial lag term of the explanatory variable also has an effect on the scale of trade and investment, which indicates the existence of spatial spillover effect. Thirdly, from the point of view of the interaction between big countries and non-trade, this paper analyzes the competition or complementary effects between big countries and non-trade. The results show that both import trade, export trade and total trade show complementary effects. The analysis based on dynamic perspective shows that this complementary effect has not changed greatly during the sample period. The complementary effect of export trade to Africa is greater than that of total trade, and the complementary effect of total trade is greater than that of import trade. The robust analysis using different spatial weight matrices shows that the spatial correlation between trade and investment is still significant and other main conclusions of this paper are still valid.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F224
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