中国贸易开放度对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-29 14:40

【摘要】：贸易开放与经济增长一直是经济学家们乐此不疲的重点研究领域,他们对于两者的研究已经形成了完整严密的理论体系和研究方法,并得出了基本一致的结论。而关于贸易开放度对经济增长的影响的研究,经济学家们却莫衷一是。中国自改革开放以来,对外贸易和经济增长都得到了巨大的提升,显然两者之间存在着密切的联系。本文正是基于此背景下研究我国贸易开放度对经济增长的影响,以期找到现实依据。本文首先回顾了贸易开放度与经济增长的相关理论,对贸易开放度影响经济增长的内在机制进行了梳理和分析,然后对1982-2013年我国贸易开放度和经济增长的宏观表现进行了描述性分析。最后,本文在新增长理论框架下,构建了贸易开放度与经济增长的面板数据模型,把对外贸易依存度作为贸易开放度的衡量指标,运用动态面板数据的GMM估计方法较好的处理了解释变量的内生性问题,并在此基础上选取了我国30省份2001-2012年的面板数据进行了实证分析。研究表明：贸易开放度对经济增长具有促进作用,两者之间存在着倒U型关系,除个别省份外我国大部分省份的贸易开放水平仍然偏低,还未达到临界点。劳动力和资本投入仍然是推动各省经济增长的主要因素,人力资本对经济增长的影响不显著。分区域来看,贸易开放的经济增长效应在不同区域间差别较大,东部地区贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用最大,人力资本的增长效应显著增强。
[Abstract]:Trade opening and economic growth have always been the key research fields of economists. They have formed a complete and rigorous theoretical system and research methods, and reached a basic conclusion. On the impact of trade openness on economic growth, economists do not agree. Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade and economic growth have been greatly improved, it is obvious that there is a close relationship between the two. This paper is based on this background to study the impact of China's trade openness on economic growth in order to find a realistic basis. This paper first reviews the relevant theories of trade openness and economic growth, and analyzes the internal mechanism that trade openness affects economic growth. Then, the macro performance of China's trade openness and economic growth from 1982 to 2013 is analyzed in a descriptive way. Finally, under the framework of new growth theory, this paper constructs a panel data model of trade openness and economic growth, and regards foreign trade dependence as a measure of trade openness. The GMM estimation method of dynamic panel data is used to deal with the endogenous problem of explanatory variables, and on this basis, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2012 are selected for empirical analysis. The results show that the degree of trade openness has a positive effect on economic growth, and there is an inverted U-type relationship between the two. The level of trade openness in most provinces except individual provinces is still on the low side and has not reached the critical point. The labor force and capital investment are still the main factors to promote the economic growth of the provinces, and the impact of human capital on the economic growth is not significant. The economic growth effect of trade opening varies greatly among different regions, and the economic growth effect of eastern region is the most significant, and the growth effect of human capital is significantly enhanced.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752;F124

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