中国贸易结构变化成因及趋势研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 07:07

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济飞速发展,尤其是我国的对外贸易,实现了惊人的飞跃,我国的外贸额在2013年已跃居国际首位,已是一个完全的贸易大国；我国的工业制成品的比重,多年前就已远远超过了初级产品,且我国工业制成品与初级产品出口额之比非常高,达到19：1,而发达国家该比例才80：20；1995年以来,我国一直稳定保持资本密集型产品输出为主的贸易结构,其出口额始终超过另一种产品,即劳动密集型产品：而高新技术产品进出口之迅速扩张更是中国的技术进步水平提高的证明,同时说明了中国外贸提升之良好势头。对外贸易是一个国家经济增长之有力支撑点,而其结构的变化作用于我国之经济发展之影响力更是举足轻重,它是我国外贸之框架,它发生变动,既会影响其自身的运行,也关系到我国整体经济情况。因此,在我国的对外贸易发展如此快速的今天,了解影响贸易结构的相关要素就显得特别重要,本文选取人民币汇率、出口退税和技术进步三个重要的影响要素,从国际贸易理论出发,运用举例分析法、理论研究辅以图表研究法、以及理论联系实际法,采用1993年-2014年的相关数据,做了上述三个要素作用于贸易结构之效应分析,并且做了其发展趋势分析,得出：人民币汇率贬值将显著有益于我国产品输出,提升输出额,增速提高,于进口之效应不显著；出口退税能有效刺激出口贸易,促进进出口贸易发展,增大出口贸易规模,能优化贸易结构,提高贸易顺差；技术进步有益于优化外贸结构,其中技术引进产生之效应不显著,而技术扩散和技术创新则与我国工业制成品输出比例显著相关,总体来看对我国的贸易结构有显著优化作用的结论。因此,本论题最后再提出几条简单的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially China's foreign trade, which has achieved an astonishing leap. China's foreign trade volume has leapt to the first place in the world in 2013, and it has become a completely trading country. Many years ago, it was well ahead of primary products, and the ratio of manufactured goods to primary exports in China was very high, reaching 19: 1, compared with 80 to 20 in developed countries; since 1995, China has been steadily maintaining a trade structure dominated by the export of capital-intensive products, and its export volume has always exceeded that of another product. That is, labor-intensive products: the rapid expansion of high-tech products import and export is a proof of the improvement of China's technological progress, and also shows the good momentum of China's foreign trade promotion. Foreign trade is the supporting point of a country's economic growth, and its structural changes play an important role in the economic development of our country. It is the framework of China's foreign trade, and its changes will affect its own operation. Also related to the overall economic situation of our country. Therefore, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade today, it is particularly important to understand the relevant factors affecting the trade structure. This paper selects three important factors, namely, RMB exchange rate, export tax rebate and technological progress. Based on the theory of international trade, this paper analyzes the effects of the above three factors on the trade structure by using the analysis of examples, the theoretical research supplemented by the method of chart research and the method of combining theory with practice, and using the relevant data from 1993 to 2014. By analyzing its development trend, it is concluded that RMB exchange rate depreciation will significantly benefit the export of our products, increase the export volume, increase the growth rate, and have no significant effect on imports, and that export tax rebates can effectively stimulate export trade. Promoting the development of import and export trade and increasing the scale of export trade can optimize the trade structure and increase the trade surplus. Technology diffusion and technological innovation are significantly related to the export ratio of manufactured goods in China, and the conclusion is that it has a significant effect on the optimization of China's trade structure. Therefore, this thesis finally puts forward several simple policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6

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