全球价值链下亚太自由贸易区的贸易效应研究
发布时间：2018-10-10 14:18
【摘要】：随着多边贸易谈判受阻,区域性及双边自由贸易谈判在全球日渐盛行。美国亦顺应潮流,主导推动跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴协定(TTIP),无疑将对中国深度融入全球价值链形成障碍。中国正在积极寻求与其他贸易伙伴商建自由贸易区。在2016年11月闭幕的亚太经济合作组织(APEC)第二十四次领导人非正式会议在秘鲁的首都利马闭幕。在此次会议上,各经济体的领导人批准了 APEC部长会议提交的《亚太自贸区集体战略研究报告》和相关政策建议,并以此作为《亚太自贸区利马宣言》。这是亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)从愿景到行动中,APEC各经济体通过集体行动实现的第一个实质性动作,对于亚太区域一体化进程具有里程碑式意义。因此,基于全球价值链背景研究FTAAP的贸易效应具有重要的现实意义。本文首先采用定性分析的方法分析亚太地区各成员国和地区贸易的历史和现状,并分别从贸易总额的角度和增加值贸易的角度对贸易结构比较分析。研究结果表明,亚太自贸区各成员间的贸易结构互补性较强,合作拥有较为坚实的基础。在理论分析的基础上,本文运用一般均衡模型——全球贸易分析模型(GTAP),对建立亚太自贸区的贸.易效应进行预测,模拟自贸区建立后各成员在贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易条件、生产结构、国内生产总值(GDP)以及经济福利等方面变化。理论上而言,亚太地区贸易迅速发展且拥有不断发展的经贸关系,贸易产品结构互补性强。从实证结果来看,自贸区建立以后,大部分成员的福利、国内生产总值和贸易条件都会得到提高,进出口也会增加。最为重要的是,对中国而言,加入亚太自贸区有利于促进其相关产业的升级,提高在全球价值链中的地位。因此,建立亚太自贸区不仅具有重要的战略意义,而且有着现实的经济意义。
[Abstract]:With multilateral trade negotiations blocked, regional and bilateral free trade negotiations are becoming more and more popular around the world. The United States is also in line with the trend, leading the promotion of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP),) will undoubtedly create obstacles to China's deep integration into the global value chain. China is actively seeking free trade zones with other trading partners. The 24th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' informal meeting, which closed in November 2016, closed in Lima, Peru's capital. At the meeting, the leaders of the economies approved the "Asia-Pacific Free Trade area Collective Strategy study" and related policy recommendations submitted by the APEC Ministerial Conference as part of the Lima Declaration of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area. This is the first substantive action that APEC economies achieve through collective action from vision to action in (FTAAP), and it is a milestone for the process of regional integration in Asia and the Pacific. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the trade effect of FTAAP based on the background of global value chain. In this paper, the history and present situation of trade among member countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region are analyzed by qualitative analysis, and the trade structure is compared from the point of view of total trade volume and value added trade. The results show that the trade structure of the members of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area is highly complementary and the cooperation has a solid foundation. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper applies the global trade analysis model (GTAP), a general equilibrium model, to establish a free trade area in Asia and the Pacific. The changes of trade scale, trade structure, terms of trade, production structure, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic welfare were simulated after the establishment of the free trade zone. In theory, trade in the Asia-Pacific region develops rapidly and has a growing economic and trade relationship, and the structure of trade products is highly complementary. From the empirical results, after the establishment of the FTA, the welfare, GDP and terms of trade of most members will be improved, and the import and export will also increase. Most importantly, for China, joining the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone will help promote the upgrading of its related industries and enhance its position in the global value chain. Therefore, the establishment of Asia-Pacific Free Trade area not only has important strategic significance, but also has realistic economic significance.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F746
[Abstract]:With multilateral trade negotiations blocked, regional and bilateral free trade negotiations are becoming more and more popular around the world. The United States is also in line with the trend, leading the promotion of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP),) will undoubtedly create obstacles to China's deep integration into the global value chain. China is actively seeking free trade zones with other trading partners. The 24th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' informal meeting, which closed in November 2016, closed in Lima, Peru's capital. At the meeting, the leaders of the economies approved the "Asia-Pacific Free Trade area Collective Strategy study" and related policy recommendations submitted by the APEC Ministerial Conference as part of the Lima Declaration of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area. This is the first substantive action that APEC economies achieve through collective action from vision to action in (FTAAP), and it is a milestone for the process of regional integration in Asia and the Pacific. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the trade effect of FTAAP based on the background of global value chain. In this paper, the history and present situation of trade among member countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region are analyzed by qualitative analysis, and the trade structure is compared from the point of view of total trade volume and value added trade. The results show that the trade structure of the members of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area is highly complementary and the cooperation has a solid foundation. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper applies the global trade analysis model (GTAP), a general equilibrium model, to establish a free trade area in Asia and the Pacific. The changes of trade scale, trade structure, terms of trade, production structure, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic welfare were simulated after the establishment of the free trade zone. In theory, trade in the Asia-Pacific region develops rapidly and has a growing economic and trade relationship, and the structure of trade products is highly complementary. From the empirical results, after the establishment of the FTA, the welfare, GDP and terms of trade of most members will be improved, and the import and export will also increase. Most importantly, for China, joining the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone will help promote the upgrading of its related industries and enhance its position in the global value chain. Therefore, the establishment of Asia-Pacific Free Trade area not only has important strategic significance, but also has realistic economic significance.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F746
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