西方经济制裁对中俄贸易影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-01 16:09

【摘要】：中俄是全面战略协作伙伴关系,近二十年时间里,中俄两国始终保持着高度友好的政治关系,对中俄两国人民和世界和平都做出了巨大贡献。然而,与两国高度友好的政治关系相比,中俄经济合作却不尽如人意。虽然,两国间经贸合作在持续稳定的增长,但是“政热经温”仍是中俄经济合作的主要特征,中俄贸易额相比中国与其他世界大国相距甚远,两国间的投资额也相当有限。如何在高度友好的政治关系的基础上促进两国经贸合作,是中俄学术界始终关注和探讨的重要问题。2013年因乌克兰危机引发了以美国为首的西方国家对俄罗斯的经济制裁与俄罗斯的反制裁,给俄罗斯经济带来严重冲击,也对俄罗斯的国际经济关系产生连带影响。那么,这对中俄经贸合作产生怎样的影响,它带来是机遇还是挑战?本文采用实证分析方法,对西方经济制裁后中俄经贸关系发生的变化,包括规模与结构两个方面,进行实证分析,从中得出西方经济制裁对中俄经贸合作的影响的现实结论,发现影响中俄经贸合作的深层次问题,以此推动中俄经贸合作健康向前发展。本文内容除了绪论之外包括四个部分。第一部分是对西方对俄罗斯经济制裁的内容、方式的综合分析,并将此次经济制裁与以往经济制裁进行比较。第二部分是对中俄贸易的规模与结构进行描述性分析,从而给出西方经济制裁之前中俄经贸的整体面貌以及西方经济制裁后发生的改变。第三部分是通过实证分析观察西方经济制裁与中俄经贸合作之间的关联性。第四部分是在第二和第三部分研究结论的基础上对中俄经贸合作提出建议。最后,本文给出一些研究结论与启示。通过实证分析发现,在西方经济制裁后,中俄贸易结构中工业制成品所占的比重在增加,尤其是资本技术密集型产品比重增加较为明显。通过贸易结合度指数与贸易互补性指数对中俄贸易进一步分析,得出中俄贸易结合度越来越紧密,中国对俄罗斯的贸易结合度较高但有所下降,而俄罗斯对中国的贸易结合度在不断上升。中俄贸易在工业制成品、机械设备运输品、杂项制品方面具有较强的互补性,这也为中俄贸易关系的加强奠定了基础。西方经济制裁对俄罗斯的贸易总额、出口产生了显著的负面影响,对俄进口影响并不显著。中俄双方贸易为“潜力开拓型”,双边贸易仍然具有很大的发展空间。最后,本文主要从改善中俄贸易制度与优化中俄贸易结构两方面对中俄贸易提出对策建议,以期能够推动中俄贸易的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Over the past two decades, China and Russia have maintained highly friendly political relations and made great contributions to the peoples of China and Russia and to world peace. However, compared with the highly friendly political relations between the two countries, economic cooperation between China and Russia is far from satisfactory. Although the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is growing steadily and steadily, the "political hot economy" is still the main characteristic of Sino-Russian economic cooperation. The Sino-Russian trade volume is far from that of other major countries in the world, and the investment between the two countries is quite limited. How to promote economic and trade cooperation between the two countries on the basis of highly friendly political relations, It is an important issue that has always been concerned and discussed by the Chinese and Russian academic circles. In 2013, because of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States-led Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia and Russia's anti-sanctions, which had a serious impact on the Russian economy. It also has a knock-on effect on Russia's international economic relations. So, how does this affect Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation? is it an opportunity or a challenge? This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the changes in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations after the western economic sanctions, including the two aspects of scale and structure, and draws the realistic conclusion of the influence of the western economic sanctions on the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. To find out the deep problems that affect the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, so as to promote the healthy development of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. In addition to the introduction, the content of this paper includes four parts. The first part is a comprehensive analysis of the contents and methods of the western economic sanctions against Russia, and compares the economic sanctions with the previous ones. The second part is a descriptive analysis of the scale and structure of Sino-Russian trade, so as to give the overall appearance of Sino-Russian trade before the western economic sanctions and the changes that have taken place after the western economic sanctions. The third part is the empirical analysis of the relationship between Western economic sanctions and Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. The fourth part is based on the conclusions of the second and third parts of the study on Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. Finally, some conclusions and revelations are given. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the proportion of manufactured goods in Sino-Russian trade structure is increasing after western economic sanctions, especially the proportion of capital-technology-intensive products. Through the further analysis of Sino-Russian trade by trade combination index and trade complementarity index, it is concluded that Sino-Russian trade integration is getting closer and closer, and China's trade integration with Russia is higher but lower. Russia's trade with China is on the rise. Sino-Russian trade is highly complementary in industrial manufactured goods, machinery and equipment, and miscellaneous products, which has laid the foundation for the strengthening of Sino-Russian trade relations. Western economic sanctions have a significant negative impact on Russia's total trade volume and exports, but not on Russia's imports. Trade between China and Russia is a potential-developing type, and bilateral trade still has a lot of room for development. Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on Sino-Russian trade from the aspects of improving Sino-Russian trade system and optimizing Sino-Russian trade structure, in order to promote the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752;F755.12

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