基于系统动力学模型的中美贸易顺差分析
发布时间：2018-11-03 19:38
【摘要】：中美贸易顺差问题一直以来都是专家学者们研究的重点问题。但是学者们多年来关于中美贸易顺差的研究,大多是选取一个单一的影响因素进行单向原因的定性和定量分析,缺乏对中美贸易顺差形成原因的外部政治环境以及其影响因素内部运行机制的分析。鉴于传统贸易理论对现代中美贸易失衡缺乏解释力,未能解释当今中美贸易严重失衡的现象。依据传统贸易理论的分析结果,中美之间的贸易顺差额应该是逐渐缩小并且趋于稳定的,但是现实情况刚好与之相反。因此,为了能够更进一步的解释现实中美贸易失衡的原因,本文首次引入了系统动力学模型对影响中美贸易失衡的各个主要因素进行建模,从而对其形成子系统分别进行分析,从全局性的角度把握中美贸易失衡的本质。本文绪论部分简单的论述了选题背景和意义、研究内容、方法框架以及文献综述等内容。第二部分简述了中美贸易的发展现状以及现今中美贸易失衡的现状。第三部分主要介绍了系统动力学方法,以及采用此方法的原因,并且建立了影响中美贸易顺差各个因素的系统动力学模型。本文的第三章主要对影响中美贸易顺差因素的五个子系统进行定性分析:美元霸权因果关系子系统、第三产业统计差异因果关系子系、美国虚拟产品出口因果关系子系统、储蓄论因果关系子系统、中美比较优势各因素子系统。本文引入了中美贸易之间“浮肿现象”的概念,对美国虚拟产品在中美双方贸易中对双边顺差影响进行了一定程度上的分析。经过中美贸易顺差原因子系统进行定性分析之后,本文第五、六两章对能够进行定量分析的美国对华FDI、东南亚产业转移进行定量分析,分别建立相关流图,利用结合计量模型所得出的线性方程进行Venism仿真分析,初步模拟未来30年中美贸易顺差额的变动情况。最后综合以上分析得出结论:中美贸易顺差额的持续扩大是多方面因素共同影响的结果;中美贸易顺差额在可预见的未来不可能缩小,并且在未来30年具有持续扩大的趋势;美国政府在中美贸易中获得了最大的利益;最后章本文提出了对策和建议。
[Abstract]:The issue of trade surplus between China and the United States has always been the focus of research by experts and scholars. However, for many years, scholars have studied the trade surplus between China and the United States, mostly by selecting a single influencing factor for qualitative and quantitative analysis of one-way causes. It lacks the analysis of the external political environment and the internal operating mechanism of the influencing factors of Sino-American trade surplus. In view of the lack of explanation of the trade imbalance between China and the United States in modern times, the traditional trade theory fails to explain the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States. According to the analysis of traditional trade theory, the trade balance between China and the United States should gradually decrease and tend to be stable, but the reality is just the opposite. Therefore, in order to further explain the causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, the system dynamics model is introduced for the first time to model the main factors that affect the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Grasp the essence of the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of overall situation. The introduction of this paper briefly discusses the background and significance of the topic, research content, method framework and literature review. The second part briefly describes the development of Sino-US trade and the current situation of Sino-US trade imbalance. The third part mainly introduces the system dynamics method and the reason why it is used, and establishes the system dynamics model which affects each factor of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The third chapter of this paper mainly analyzes the five subsystems that influence the factors of Sino-US trade surplus: the US dollar hegemony causality subsystem, the tertiary industry statistical differential causality sub-system, the United States virtual product export causality subsystem. Savings theory of causality subsystem, the comparative advantage of China and the United States each factor subsystem. This paper introduces the concept of "bloated phenomenon" between China and the United States, and analyzes to a certain extent the influence of American virtual products on bilateral surplus in Sino-US trade. After the qualitative analysis of the cause subsystem of Sino-US trade surplus, the fifth and sixth chapters of this paper quantitatively analyze the Southeast Asian industrial transfer from the United States to China, which can be quantitatively analyzed, and establish the relevant flow charts respectively. By using the linear equation derived from the econometric model, the Venism simulation analysis is carried out to preliminarily simulate the change of the trade balance between China and the United States in the next 30 years. Finally, the conclusion is drawn from the above analysis: the continuous expansion of Sino-American trade balance is the result of multiple factors, and the Sino-u. S. Trade balance will not be reduced in the foreseeable future, and will continue to expand in the next 30 years The American government gains the greatest benefit in Sino-American trade. In the last chapter, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12
本文编号：2308791
[Abstract]:The issue of trade surplus between China and the United States has always been the focus of research by experts and scholars. However, for many years, scholars have studied the trade surplus between China and the United States, mostly by selecting a single influencing factor for qualitative and quantitative analysis of one-way causes. It lacks the analysis of the external political environment and the internal operating mechanism of the influencing factors of Sino-American trade surplus. In view of the lack of explanation of the trade imbalance between China and the United States in modern times, the traditional trade theory fails to explain the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States. According to the analysis of traditional trade theory, the trade balance between China and the United States should gradually decrease and tend to be stable, but the reality is just the opposite. Therefore, in order to further explain the causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, the system dynamics model is introduced for the first time to model the main factors that affect the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Grasp the essence of the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of overall situation. The introduction of this paper briefly discusses the background and significance of the topic, research content, method framework and literature review. The second part briefly describes the development of Sino-US trade and the current situation of Sino-US trade imbalance. The third part mainly introduces the system dynamics method and the reason why it is used, and establishes the system dynamics model which affects each factor of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The third chapter of this paper mainly analyzes the five subsystems that influence the factors of Sino-US trade surplus: the US dollar hegemony causality subsystem, the tertiary industry statistical differential causality sub-system, the United States virtual product export causality subsystem. Savings theory of causality subsystem, the comparative advantage of China and the United States each factor subsystem. This paper introduces the concept of "bloated phenomenon" between China and the United States, and analyzes to a certain extent the influence of American virtual products on bilateral surplus in Sino-US trade. After the qualitative analysis of the cause subsystem of Sino-US trade surplus, the fifth and sixth chapters of this paper quantitatively analyze the Southeast Asian industrial transfer from the United States to China, which can be quantitatively analyzed, and establish the relevant flow charts respectively. By using the linear equation derived from the econometric model, the Venism simulation analysis is carried out to preliminarily simulate the change of the trade balance between China and the United States in the next 30 years. Finally, the conclusion is drawn from the above analysis: the continuous expansion of Sino-American trade balance is the result of multiple factors, and the Sino-u. S. Trade balance will not be reduced in the foreseeable future, and will continue to expand in the next 30 years The American government gains the greatest benefit in Sino-American trade. In the last chapter, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 田银华,朱文蔚;美国的直接投资对中美贸易影响的协整分析[J];当代财经;2005年10期
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