反倾销调查“恐惧效应”的判定及效力测度分析
发布时间：2018-11-08 20:22
【摘要】：反倾销调查除了产生已广为人知的贸易限制、贸易转移、继发保护等效应之外,是否还会产生导致被控倾销国出口至第三方市场数量下降的所谓“恐惧效应”?运用统计和计量的手段回答这一问题的逻辑和方法是全面认识和科学判定反倾销贸易效应的技术关键。本文以欧盟对华无缝钢管以及独联体国家对华彩涂板反倾销调查案件为例,在大量涉案贸易数据的基础上,遵循先遴选后排除的思路,运用Chow突变点检验、虚拟变量模型、Granger因果关系检验和分位数回归等方法和手段,通过对比分析,在示范性地演示反倾销调查“恐惧效应”判定方法和程序从而为国际贸易活动中类似效应的检验提供可能评测范式的同时,回答了反倾销调查是否必然存在“恐惧效应”这一问题。在此基础上,运用聚类分析法对反倾销调查“恐惧效应”进行效力测度,得出如下结论:欧盟反倾销调查是我国无缝钢管出口美国市场大幅下滑的直接原因,本文将此称作反倾销调查的“恐惧效应”。与此同时,对中国无缝钢管主要出口的23个国家进行聚类分析,发现反倾销调查“恐惧效应”只发生在美国,并未传导至其他国家。
[Abstract]:In addition to the well-known effects of trade restrictions, trade transfers and secondary protection, will anti-dumping investigations have the so-called "fear effect" that leads to a decline in the number of alleged dumping countries exporting to third-party markets? The logic and method of answering this question by means of statistics and metrology is the technical key to comprehensively understand and scientifically judge the effect of anti-dumping trade. Taking the European Union seamless steel tubes and the CIS countries' anti-dumping investigation cases against China as an example, on the basis of a large number of trade data involved, following the idea of first selecting and then excluding, using Chow mutation point test, virtual variable model, Methods and means of Granger causality test and quantile regression were compared and analyzed. While demonstrating exemplary methods and procedures for determining the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigations, thus providing a paradigm for possible evaluation of similar effects in international trade activities, It answers the question whether the anti-dumping investigation must have "fear effect". On this basis, the validity of the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation is measured by cluster analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the European Union anti-dumping investigation is the direct reason for the sharp decline of China's seamless steel pipe exports to the United States market. This article calls this the "fear effect" of the anti-dumping investigation. At the same time, the cluster analysis of 23 countries that China mainly exports seamless steel pipes shows that the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation only occurred in the United States and did not transmit to other countries.
【学位授予单位】：中国计量学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.31;F752.02;F755
[Abstract]:In addition to the well-known effects of trade restrictions, trade transfers and secondary protection, will anti-dumping investigations have the so-called "fear effect" that leads to a decline in the number of alleged dumping countries exporting to third-party markets? The logic and method of answering this question by means of statistics and metrology is the technical key to comprehensively understand and scientifically judge the effect of anti-dumping trade. Taking the European Union seamless steel tubes and the CIS countries' anti-dumping investigation cases against China as an example, on the basis of a large number of trade data involved, following the idea of first selecting and then excluding, using Chow mutation point test, virtual variable model, Methods and means of Granger causality test and quantile regression were compared and analyzed. While demonstrating exemplary methods and procedures for determining the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigations, thus providing a paradigm for possible evaluation of similar effects in international trade activities, It answers the question whether the anti-dumping investigation must have "fear effect". On this basis, the validity of the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation is measured by cluster analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the European Union anti-dumping investigation is the direct reason for the sharp decline of China's seamless steel pipe exports to the United States market. This article calls this the "fear effect" of the anti-dumping investigation. At the same time, the cluster analysis of 23 countries that China mainly exports seamless steel pipes shows that the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation only occurred in the United States and did not transmit to other countries.
【学位授予单位】：中国计量学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.31;F752.02;F755
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