比较金砖四国汇率变化对出口贸易的影响
发布时间：2018-11-14 10:05
【摘要】：近年来,随着全球一体化的加速发展,世界经济格局也发现了比较大的变化,其中以经济转型为目的的新兴发展中国家尤为突出。而金砖四国作为发展中国家的代表,四个国家的对外贸易近年来发展非常迅速,特别是金融危机之后,金砖四国的增长依旧强势,是世界经济复苏的重要引擎。在此本文选取金砖四国为例,它们过去一段时间对外贸易顺差不断扩大,经济得到飞速增长,而针对其汇率对于贸易顺差的影响相关文献较少,故从此角度出发,旨在为国家相关政策制定提供帮助。本文主要分国别研究金砖四国,通过对比线性模型与非线性模型的结果来解释汇率变动对于出口贸易的影响。在线性回归结果中四个国家的汇率均与出口值显著负相关;从汇率波动率来看,中国的汇率波动率与出口无显著相关系,巴西的汇率波动率与出口在5%的显著性水平上正相关,印度与俄罗斯均在1%的显著性水平上正相关;对于收入水平而言,四个国家的收入水平与本国的出口值也显著正相关。在门限回归模型中,巴西除了汇率波动在3.71与4.14之间,汇率与出口值正相关以外,其他时候都与出口呈现显著负相关,中国与俄罗斯的本国货币兑美元的汇率与出口值显著负相关。从汇率波动看,只有巴西的汇率波动仅当汇率与出口呈现正相关关系时,与出口的关系是显著负相关,中国与俄罗斯的汇率波动率与出口都无显著性相关性。最后,巴西的收入水平在汇率波动较小时,与出口呈现正相关关系,而在汇率波动较大时,与出口呈现负相关关系;中国与俄罗斯的收入水平都跟出口值是显著正相关。出现上述结果的原因可能在于每个国家的出口商品结构不同及本国汇率制度的差异。从本文的实证结果来看未来我国发展,我国目前仍然是出口导向型的经济发展状况,汇率波动对于本国的经济发展是有一定影响的。而当汇率波动较大时,风险厌恶型厂商则会减少生产,所以政府应该努力维持人民币的稳定。然而对于国际市场上我国货币的稳定性,究其根本还是需要依靠本国企业的利润率与生存能力。我国企业应该时刻保持风险意识,对于汇率波动异常需要提高警惕。货币当局则应该积极推动人民币国际化进程,这样也可以减少本国出口贸易受到汇率变化的不确定性,从而将出口导向型的经济增长方式转变成扩大内需为导向的经济增长方式。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the accelerated development of global integration, the world economic pattern has also found a relatively large change, especially in the emerging developing countries which aim at economic transformation. As a representative of the developing countries, the four BRICs' foreign trade has developed very rapidly in recent years. Especially after the financial crisis, the BRICs' growth is still strong, which is an important engine of the world economic recovery. In this paper, the Bric countries are selected as an example. Their foreign trade surplus has been expanding and their economy has been growing rapidly in the past period, but there is little literature on the impact of their exchange rate on the trade surplus, so from this point of view, The aim is to provide assistance for the development of relevant national policies. This paper focuses on the BRICs by comparing the results of linear model and nonlinear model to explain the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade. In the linear regression results, the exchange rates of the four countries were significantly negatively correlated with the value of exports; From the point of view of exchange rate volatility, there is no significant relationship between China's exchange rate volatility and exports. Brazil's exchange rate volatility is positively correlated with exports at a significant level of 5%, while India and Russia are both positively correlated at a significant level of 1%. In terms of income levels, the income levels of the four countries are also significantly positively correlated with their export values. In the threshold regression model, in addition to the exchange rate fluctuations between 3.71 and 4.14, the exchange rate is positively correlated with the export value, and there is a significant negative correlation between the exchange rate and the export value at other times. The exchange rate of China and Russia against the dollar is negatively correlated with exports. From the point of view of exchange rate fluctuations, only when the exchange rate of Brazil is positively correlated with exports, the relationship with exports is significantly negative, while the exchange rate volatility of China and Russia has no significant correlation with exports. Finally, Brazil's income level shows a positive correlation with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates less, and negatively with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates more, while the income levels of China and Russia are significantly positively correlated with export value. This may be due to the differences in the structure of export commodities and the exchange rate regime of each country. From the empirical results of this paper, the future development of China is still export-oriented economic development, exchange rate fluctuations have a certain impact on the economic development of our country. When the exchange rate is volatile, risk-averse manufacturers reduce production, so the government should try to keep the yuan stable. However, the stability of Chinese currency in the international market depends on the profit margin and survivability of domestic enterprises. Chinese enterprises should always maintain risk awareness and should be vigilant against abnormal exchange rate fluctuations. The monetary authorities should actively promote the process of internationalization of the renminbi, which can also reduce the uncertainty that domestic export trade is subject to exchange rate changes. Thus, the export-oriented economic growth mode will be transformed into the expansion of domestic demand-oriented economic growth mode.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F746
本文编号：2330856
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the accelerated development of global integration, the world economic pattern has also found a relatively large change, especially in the emerging developing countries which aim at economic transformation. As a representative of the developing countries, the four BRICs' foreign trade has developed very rapidly in recent years. Especially after the financial crisis, the BRICs' growth is still strong, which is an important engine of the world economic recovery. In this paper, the Bric countries are selected as an example. Their foreign trade surplus has been expanding and their economy has been growing rapidly in the past period, but there is little literature on the impact of their exchange rate on the trade surplus, so from this point of view, The aim is to provide assistance for the development of relevant national policies. This paper focuses on the BRICs by comparing the results of linear model and nonlinear model to explain the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade. In the linear regression results, the exchange rates of the four countries were significantly negatively correlated with the value of exports; From the point of view of exchange rate volatility, there is no significant relationship between China's exchange rate volatility and exports. Brazil's exchange rate volatility is positively correlated with exports at a significant level of 5%, while India and Russia are both positively correlated at a significant level of 1%. In terms of income levels, the income levels of the four countries are also significantly positively correlated with their export values. In the threshold regression model, in addition to the exchange rate fluctuations between 3.71 and 4.14, the exchange rate is positively correlated with the export value, and there is a significant negative correlation between the exchange rate and the export value at other times. The exchange rate of China and Russia against the dollar is negatively correlated with exports. From the point of view of exchange rate fluctuations, only when the exchange rate of Brazil is positively correlated with exports, the relationship with exports is significantly negative, while the exchange rate volatility of China and Russia has no significant correlation with exports. Finally, Brazil's income level shows a positive correlation with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates less, and negatively with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates more, while the income levels of China and Russia are significantly positively correlated with export value. This may be due to the differences in the structure of export commodities and the exchange rate regime of each country. From the empirical results of this paper, the future development of China is still export-oriented economic development, exchange rate fluctuations have a certain impact on the economic development of our country. When the exchange rate is volatile, risk-averse manufacturers reduce production, so the government should try to keep the yuan stable. However, the stability of Chinese currency in the international market depends on the profit margin and survivability of domestic enterprises. Chinese enterprises should always maintain risk awareness and should be vigilant against abnormal exchange rate fluctuations. The monetary authorities should actively promote the process of internationalization of the renminbi, which can also reduce the uncertainty that domestic export trade is subject to exchange rate changes. Thus, the export-oriented economic growth mode will be transformed into the expansion of domestic demand-oriented economic growth mode.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6;F746
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