中国对外贸易中隐含能的驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-11-25 11:14

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济发展速度十分迅猛。然而,经济和贸易的发展离不开大量能源供给的支持,中国经贸快速发展的背后是日益严峻的能源资源消耗形势。在有限的能源资源条件下,我国不得不提高能源产品的进口规模以满足国内的能源需求,这样不仅会造成能源供给压力,导致严重的环境污染问题,而且还会受到国外发达国家诸如“中国能源威胁论”的指责。因此,本文借助“隐含能”这一新型的概念来解释一个国家的能源利用及其与对外贸易之间的关系问题,通过对我国进出口产品隐含能源的测算与驱动因素分析,一方面能够让世界更加清晰、客观的了解我国能源消耗的本质,另一方面也为我国贸易转型,完成“十三五规划”的节能减排目标提供切实可行的选择与建议。本文在此背景下,利用2012年中国单边投入产出表与价格指数编制了中国2012年可比价投入产出表,结合1997年、2002年以及2007年中国可比价投入产出表及各年度分部门的能源消耗数据与进出口数据,将我国行业合并为28个部门,并且对这28个部门进行完全能耗强度的计算与进出口隐含能的测算,实证结果表明:随着时间的推移,我国各部门的完全能耗强度呈下降的趋势,这说明我国的能源利用效率有所提升。与此同时,我国的进出口隐含能规模呈现持续上升的趋势,其中,基于技术同质性假设与基于日本能耗强度测算得到的出口产品隐含能规模相差较大。根据隐含能净值结果表明:基于技术同质性假设的测算结果难以判定我国究竟属于隐含能净出口国还是隐含能净进口国,而以日本为进口国代表得到的结果显示我国已是明显的隐含能净出口国。随后根据测算出的外对贸易隐含能规模,运用投入产出结构分解技术对影响我国对外能耗转移的驱动因素进行结构分解,分别对技术效应、规模效应和结构效应的贡献程度进行比较。实证结果表明,1997年至2012年间,无论是进口还是出口贸易隐含能,贸易规模因素都起到了最主要的正向推动作用,15年间对进口贸易隐含能与出口贸易隐含能的推动值分别达到了105278万吨标准煤与81324万吨标准煤,平均贡献率在200%左右。相比之下,贸易结构因素对进出口贸易隐含能的影响作用甚小。另一方面,能源利用效率的提升能够在一定程度上抑制能耗的国际转移,技术因素对我国进出口隐含能规模的增长起到了最主要的抑制作用。最后本文基于我国进出口隐含能的测算结果以及驱动因素分析提出相应的政策建议,分别针对技术因素,结构因素与规模因素,结合我国经济贸易发展的实际情况,提出行之有效的贸易转型措施。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development is very rapid. However, the development of economy and trade can not be separated from the support of a large amount of energy supply. Behind the rapid development of China's economy and trade is the increasingly severe situation of energy and resource consumption. Under the condition of limited energy resources, our country has to increase the import scale of energy products to meet the domestic energy demand, which will not only cause the pressure of energy supply, but also lead to serious environmental pollution. But also by foreign developed countries such as the "China Energy threat theory." Therefore, with the help of the new concept of "implied energy", this paper explains the energy utilization of a country and its relationship with foreign trade, through the calculation and analysis of the driving factors of the implied energy of China's import and export products. On the one hand, it can make the world understand the essence of China's energy consumption more clearly and objectively, on the other hand, it can also provide practical choices and suggestions for the transformation of China's trade and the completion of the energy saving and emission reduction target of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In this context, using China's unilateral input-output table and price index in 2012, this paper makes a comparative input-output table for China in 2012, combining with 1997. In 2002 and 2007, China's comparable input-output table, energy consumption data and import and export data for each subsector combined the industry into 28 sectors. The empirical results show that, with the passage of time, the total energy consumption intensity of all departments in China is decreasing. This shows that China's energy use efficiency has improved. At the same time, China's import and export implied energy scale shows a rising trend, among which, there is a big difference between the implied energy scale based on the assumption of technical homogeneity and the export product based on Japanese energy intensity. According to the results of net implied energy, it is difficult to determine whether China is a net exporter of implied energy or a net importer of implied energy based on the assumption of technical homogeneity. The results obtained by the representative of Japan as importing country show that China is an obvious net exporter of implied energy. Then, according to the scale of external implied energy for trade, the input-output structure decomposition technology is used to decompose the driving factors that affect China's external energy consumption transfer. The contribution of scale effect and structure effect was compared. The empirical results show that between 1997 and 2012, both import and export trade implied energy, trade scale factors played the most important positive role. In the past 15 years, the driving value of implied energy in import trade and export trade has reached 1.05278 billion tons of standard coal and 813.24 million tons of standard coal respectively, with an average contribution rate of about 200%. By contrast, trade structure factors have little effect on the implied energy of import and export trade. On the other hand, the improvement of energy use efficiency can restrain the international transfer of energy consumption to a certain extent. Finally, based on the analysis of the implied energy of China's import and export and the analysis of the driving factors, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations, aiming at the technical factors, structural factors and scale factors, combined with the actual situation of China's economic and trade development. Put forward effective trade transformation measures.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.6

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