新兴经济体商品进口需求结构变化及其对中国出口的影响
发布时间：2018-12-19 19:46
【摘要】：近年来,推动世界经济增长的新引擎——新兴经济体广受社会各界关注。对于坚持扩大对外开放战略的中国来说,拓展新兴经济体市场将成为中国促进外贸发展的重要路径,因此,加强对国际金融危机后新兴经济体的进口需求结构的变化研究具有重要意义。本文从结构的角度探寻新兴经济体的商品进口需求结构变化,并进一步分析其与中国出口的关系。本文首先以资源、劳动、资本、和技术密集型四类产品为基础,描述性分析了2001~2013年新兴经济体商品进口需求结构以及中国出口结构情况,并运用Moore结构指数来衡量进出口结构变动程度。分析发现,新兴经济体进口需求结构和中国出口结构中的资本密集型产品占比均为最高,劳动密集型产品占比总体上呈下降趋势;新兴经济体进口需求中资源密集型产品占比大幅提升,对技术密集型产品需求占比下降,而中国对新兴经济体出口中资源密集型产品占比下降,但近年来资本和劳动密集型产品出口占比有所提升,技术密集型产品占比下降。本文最后运用CMS模型对中国对新兴经济体的商品出口的影响效应进行分解,发现在总体出口增长中竞争力效应的贡献占主导作用,中国出口新兴经济体增长中的商品结构效应潜力有待发掘。本文建议中国应当充分挖掘商品结构调整与升级对促进中国出口新兴经济体的潜力,并从认识新兴经济体市场进口需求特点,保持和提高产品出口竞争力,发扬传统比较优势产业,开拓更多的出口空间等方面入手,进一步挖掘产品出口结构调整带来的对中国出口增长的贡献作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, emerging economies, the new engine of world economic growth, have attracted widespread attention. For China, which adheres to the strategy of opening wider to the outside world, expanding the markets of emerging economies will become an important path for China to promote the development of foreign trade. It is of great significance to study the changes of import demand structure in emerging economies after the international financial crisis. This paper explores the structural changes of commodity import demand in emerging economies and further analyzes its relationship with China's exports. Based on four types of products, resources, labor, capital, and technology intensive, this paper first analyzes the structure of commodity import demand in emerging economies from 2001 to 2013 and the export structure of China. And use Moore structure index to measure the change degree of import and export structure. It is found that the proportion of capital-intensive products in the import demand structure of emerging economies and the export structure of China is the highest, while the proportion of labor-intensive products is on the whole declining. The share of resource-intensive products in the import demand of emerging economies has increased significantly, and the proportion of demand for technology-intensive products has declined, while the share of resource-intensive products in China's exports to emerging economies has declined. But in recent years, the share of capital and labor-intensive products exports has increased, technology-intensive products accounted for a decline. In the end, we use CMS model to decompose the effect of China on the commodity export of emerging economies, and find that the contribution of competitiveness effect plays a leading role in the overall export growth. The potential of commodity structure effect in the growth of China's export emerging economies remains to be explored. This paper suggests that China should fully tap the potential of commodity restructuring and upgrading to promote China's exports to emerging economies, and to maintain and improve the competitiveness of product exports by recognizing the characteristics of import demand in emerging economies. Carry forward the traditional comparative advantage industry, open up more export space and so on, further excavate the contribution of product export structure adjustment to China's export growth.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6
本文编号：2387367
[Abstract]:In recent years, emerging economies, the new engine of world economic growth, have attracted widespread attention. For China, which adheres to the strategy of opening wider to the outside world, expanding the markets of emerging economies will become an important path for China to promote the development of foreign trade. It is of great significance to study the changes of import demand structure in emerging economies after the international financial crisis. This paper explores the structural changes of commodity import demand in emerging economies and further analyzes its relationship with China's exports. Based on four types of products, resources, labor, capital, and technology intensive, this paper first analyzes the structure of commodity import demand in emerging economies from 2001 to 2013 and the export structure of China. And use Moore structure index to measure the change degree of import and export structure. It is found that the proportion of capital-intensive products in the import demand structure of emerging economies and the export structure of China is the highest, while the proportion of labor-intensive products is on the whole declining. The share of resource-intensive products in the import demand of emerging economies has increased significantly, and the proportion of demand for technology-intensive products has declined, while the share of resource-intensive products in China's exports to emerging economies has declined. But in recent years, the share of capital and labor-intensive products exports has increased, technology-intensive products accounted for a decline. In the end, we use CMS model to decompose the effect of China on the commodity export of emerging economies, and find that the contribution of competitiveness effect plays a leading role in the overall export growth. The potential of commodity structure effect in the growth of China's export emerging economies remains to be explored. This paper suggests that China should fully tap the potential of commodity restructuring and upgrading to promote China's exports to emerging economies, and to maintain and improve the competitiveness of product exports by recognizing the characteristics of import demand in emerging economies. Carry forward the traditional comparative advantage industry, open up more export space and so on, further excavate the contribution of product export structure adjustment to China's export growth.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6
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