金融危机后印度对华贸易保护措施对中国出口的影响
发布时间：2019-05-29 11:41
【摘要】：2008年金融危机爆发后,全球商品贸易减速促使新的贸易保护主义再度兴起,国与国之间的贸易摩擦日益加剧。此轮贸易保护,中国成为各国发动贸易保护的主要目标国。印度作为此轮贸易保护对中国采取贸易保护措施最多的国家,其保护政策无论对中国经济还是贸易所产生的负面效应都是不容忽视的。然而由于数据获取和实证方法选择上等方面的困难,实证研究金融危机以来印度各种贸易保护措施对中国贸易影响的文献相当缺乏。基于此,本文利用全球贸易预警组织(GTA)数据库,在对2008年11月以来印度对华实施的贸易保护措施进行统计性描述基础上,利用动态差分GMM方法实证分析了其对中国出口的影响。统计数据表明,中国遭受印度实施的贸易保护措施数量呈波动增长状态,其中黄色措施近些年也有增长的趋势,表明中国未来遭受印度实施的贸易保护主义的威胁还将增加。从措施类型看,贸易救济措施、当地含量要求、贸易融资是印度对中国实施歧视性贸易保护措施的主要方式,但非传统贸易保护形式也占据了危机时期保护主义的大部分,表明印度对中国实施贸易保护措施具有多样性的特点。从影响行业来看,印度实施贸易保护措施主要是保护本国传统、劳动密集型行业,如化学产品、专用机械、贱金属、通用机械等行业。同时,农产品行业作为国民经济的基础也成为较大受害部门。利用HS4位数编码商品月度出口数据的实证结果表明:印度对中国实施贸易保护给中国出口造成显著冲击。众多措施中,贸易救济措施被采取次数最多,其次是当地含量要求,这些措施的实施也对中国相关商品的出口产生显著的负面影响。值得注意的是,非关税壁垒(未另做详细说明)尽管被实施次数较少,但对中国出口贸易造成损失最大,该措施的实施会使中国受影响行业出口额下降56.59%。救助/国家援助、出口激励等间接影响措施对我国出口的冲击也不容忽视。贸易融资实施的频率较高,但并未对中国相关产品的出口造成实质性伤害。印度对中国实施的歧视性贸易保护措施对中国运输工具、农产品、矿产品、纺织品等行业的影响较大且显著,阻碍了中国相关产品的出口。针对加工食品品和木制品行业实施的贸易保护措施数量较少,影响系数为负,但统计上并不显著。最后,我们在实证结果的基础上得出几点启示,以期更好应对印度贸易保护。
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the slowdown in global commodity trade prompted the resurgence of new trade protectionism, and the trade frictions between countries are becoming more and more serious. In this round of trade protection, China has become the main target country for all countries to launch trade protection. India, as the country that has taken the most trade protection measures to China in this round of trade protection, the negative effects of its protection policy on China's economy and trade can not be ignored. However, due to the difficulties of data acquisition and the choice of empirical methods, there is a lack of literature on the impact of various trade protection measures in India on China's trade since the financial crisis. Based on this, this paper uses the Global Trade early warning Organization (GTA) database to describe the trade protection measures implemented by India to China since November 2008. The influence of dynamic differential GMM method on China's export is analyzed empirically. Statistics show that the number of trade protection measures imposed by India is fluctuating and growing, and yellow measures have also shown an upward trend in recent years, indicating that the threat of trade protectionism imposed by India will increase in the future. From the point of view of the type of measures, trade relief measures, local content requirements and trade financing are the main ways for India to implement discriminatory trade protection measures against China, but non-traditional forms of trade protection also occupy most of the protectionism during the crisis. It shows that India's trade protection measures against China have the characteristics of diversity. From the perspective of the impact industry, India mainly implements trade protection measures to protect its own tradition, labor-intensive industries, such as chemical products, special machinery, base metals, general machinery and other industries. At the same time, the agricultural industry as the basis of the national economy has also become a greater victim sector. The empirical results of monthly export data encoded by HS4 digits show that India's trade protection against China has a significant impact on China's exports. Among the many measures, trade relief measures have been adopted the most frequently, followed by local content requirements, and the implementation of these measures has also had a significant negative impact on the export of related goods in China. It is worth noting that although non-tariff barriers (not otherwise detailed) have been implemented less often, they have caused the greatest damage to China's export trade, and the implementation of this measure will reduce the export volume of China's affected industries by 56.59 percent. The impact of indirect measures such as rescue / state aid and export incentive on China's export can not be ignored. Trade finance is implemented frequently, but it does not cause substantial damage to the export of related products in China. India's discriminatory trade protection measures against China have a great and significant impact on China's transport, agricultural products, mineral products, textiles and other industries, hindering the export of Chinese related products. The number of trade protection measures for processed food and wood products industry is small, and the influence coefficient is negative, but it is not statistically significant. Finally, we draw some enlightenments on the basis of empirical results in order to better deal with Indian trade protection.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F741.2
本文编号：2487908
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the slowdown in global commodity trade prompted the resurgence of new trade protectionism, and the trade frictions between countries are becoming more and more serious. In this round of trade protection, China has become the main target country for all countries to launch trade protection. India, as the country that has taken the most trade protection measures to China in this round of trade protection, the negative effects of its protection policy on China's economy and trade can not be ignored. However, due to the difficulties of data acquisition and the choice of empirical methods, there is a lack of literature on the impact of various trade protection measures in India on China's trade since the financial crisis. Based on this, this paper uses the Global Trade early warning Organization (GTA) database to describe the trade protection measures implemented by India to China since November 2008. The influence of dynamic differential GMM method on China's export is analyzed empirically. Statistics show that the number of trade protection measures imposed by India is fluctuating and growing, and yellow measures have also shown an upward trend in recent years, indicating that the threat of trade protectionism imposed by India will increase in the future. From the point of view of the type of measures, trade relief measures, local content requirements and trade financing are the main ways for India to implement discriminatory trade protection measures against China, but non-traditional forms of trade protection also occupy most of the protectionism during the crisis. It shows that India's trade protection measures against China have the characteristics of diversity. From the perspective of the impact industry, India mainly implements trade protection measures to protect its own tradition, labor-intensive industries, such as chemical products, special machinery, base metals, general machinery and other industries. At the same time, the agricultural industry as the basis of the national economy has also become a greater victim sector. The empirical results of monthly export data encoded by HS4 digits show that India's trade protection against China has a significant impact on China's exports. Among the many measures, trade relief measures have been adopted the most frequently, followed by local content requirements, and the implementation of these measures has also had a significant negative impact on the export of related goods in China. It is worth noting that although non-tariff barriers (not otherwise detailed) have been implemented less often, they have caused the greatest damage to China's export trade, and the implementation of this measure will reduce the export volume of China's affected industries by 56.59 percent. The impact of indirect measures such as rescue / state aid and export incentive on China's export can not be ignored. Trade finance is implemented frequently, but it does not cause substantial damage to the export of related products in China. India's discriminatory trade protection measures against China have a great and significant impact on China's transport, agricultural products, mineral products, textiles and other industries, hindering the export of Chinese related products. The number of trade protection measures for processed food and wood products industry is small, and the influence coefficient is negative, but it is not statistically significant. Finally, we draw some enlightenments on the basis of empirical results in order to better deal with Indian trade protection.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F741.2
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