卢布汇率传递效应与转型国家汇率制度改革

发布时间：2017-12-27 22:23

本文关键词：卢布汇率传递效应与转型国家汇率制度改革　出处：《欧亚经济》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2014年以来,卢布汇率大幅贬值和剧烈波动引起国际社会广泛关注。资本外逃、通货膨胀、外汇储备下降,俄罗斯经济面临严峻考验。深刻分析卢布贬值的原因:欧美制裁和油价下跌是导火索,经济增长乏力、结构畸形是根本点,开放资本项目是助推器。关联储退出量化宽松政策,美元加息预期不断增强,特别是中国大幅下调人民币中间价后,新兴市场国家和与中国有密切贸易关系的国家货币争先恐后贬值,在经济全球化的今天,发展中国家选择何种汇率制度、资本项目的开放程度等又成为当前研讨的热点问题。中国"十三五"规划建议指出,有序实现人民币资本项目可自由兑换,推动人民币进入特别提款权,成为可自由兑换、可自由使用货币,可见,人民币国际化进程已经开始提速。本刊编辑部特邀请国内专家学者参加讨论,剖析卢布贬值的深层原因,比较中俄两国在经济增长、产业结构、国际储备、本币国际化、汇率制度等方面的差异,评估卢布汇率危机对中国金融改革总体进程的影响,探讨中国如何在逐步推进汇率形成机制市场化的同时,有效防范汇率大幅波动产生的风险。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the sharp depreciation and violent fluctuations of the rouble exchange rate have aroused wide attention from the international community. Capital flight, inflation, and foreign exchange reserves have fallen, and the Russian economy is facing a severe test. A deep analysis of the reasons for the ruble's depreciation: the sanctions in Europe and the US and the fall in oil prices are the fuse. The economic growth is weak and the structural abnormality is the fundamental point. Opening capital account is a booster. The Fed exit quantitative easing, the dollar rate hike is expected to continue to strengthen, especially China slashed the central parity of RMB, emerging market countries have close trade relations with China and national currency devaluation fall over each other, in the economic globalization, the developing countries choose what kind of exchange rate regime, capital account openness has become a hot topic of current research the. China "13th Five-Year" planning proposal pointed out that in order to achieve capital account convertibility, push the renminbi into SDRs, become freely convertible and freely usable currency, visible, has begun to accelerate the process of internationalization of the rmb. This print editorial office invited domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion, analyzes the deep reason for the devaluation of the ruble, comparing the difference in economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, international currency exchange rate and other aspects of the Russian ruble exchange rate crisis, impact assessment of the overall process Chinese financial reform, explore how to Chinese gradually promote the exchange rate formation mechanism of the market at the same time, effectively prevent the risk from exchange rate fluctuations.
【作者单位】：鲁东大学商学院;
【分类号】：F832.6;F835.12
【正文快照】： 欧美制裁和石油价格下跌对俄罗斯经济造成的影响是多方面的。无论从哪个角度切人,都可以从制度层面发现俄罗斯作为转型国家在制度建设方面的不足和缺陷。如何以俄罗斯为鉴,从源头上避免转型期各种制度建设的缺陷,保持经济社会平稳健康可持续性发展是我们关注的重点。卢布汇率

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