基于EVA模型对我国券商类上市公司的估值研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 04:01

本文关键词：基于EVA模型对我国券商类上市公司的估值研究　出处：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在证券市场的交易中,证券公司是沟通交易双方最重要的中介机构。1987年9月中国成立了第一家专业证券公司——深圳特区证券公司,自此以后,证券公司如雨后春笋般迅速发展起来。随着我国经济的快速发展,国民的可支配财富得到快速累积,在投资者的眼中,我国证券市场有着特定的渠道,可以将投资者的现有存款转化为股本,这将有利于投资者创收其资本性的收入。普通民众对证券市场的参与热情越来越高涨,投资者的眼光也放在了炙手可热的证券行业上,因此对于券商类上市公司的投资价值分析也越来越受关注。所以本文将采用EVA估值法对我国部分上市券商的价值进行分析以达到防范风险、理性投资的目的。2016年末,我国证券公司共有129家,这129家证券公司总资产为5.79万亿元,净资产为1.64万亿元,净资本为1.47万亿元,全年实现营业收入3279.94亿元,实现净利润1234.45亿元,124家公司实现盈利。通过数据我们可以看出,中国证券行业的发展,正在以一种健康、稳定的态势向前进,注重公司管理和抗风险能力,通过发展业务规模,提高盈利能力和服务能力,依靠中国经济的发展将会有更加广阔的发展。本文首先阐述了关于券商类上市公司价值评估的研究背景和研究意义,并简单的概括了本文的研究内容和研究结构,对于国内外学者在EVA模型方面所做的研究进行了简单的回顾,并且做了总结评价,然后指出了本文的创新点以及反思了本文的不足。接着,对企业价值评估的理论进行比较分析,从企业价值评估的含义入手,主要将价值评估方法分为成本法、收益法和市场法,对各种价值评估方法进行比较分析。其次,是讨论EVA模型对上市券商在估值方面的适用性,包括EVA估值法的含义,和EVA估值法的优缺点,根据券商类公司估值的特点及EVA模型的适用性,最终选定EVA模型。在上述一系列的准备过后,本文对选取的上市券商进行了基于EVA模型的实证分析,在以企业不同发展阶段的基础上,对EVA模型进行分类,最终选择了比较适合券商类上市公司的高速发展模型,详细介绍了模型计算的方法和计算过程中需要的各个项目,并且对相关的会计科目进行了会计调整。在2015年度各上市券商年度报告中选取数据,计算出2015年的EVA值,然后利用年报中的相关数据,对接下来五年的EVA值进行预测,代入EVA两阶段估值模型中,计算出2015年末上市券商的企业价值和每股价值,并且与当时各个上市券商的实际股价对比分析。最后,基于对实证结果的分析,对投资者提供相关建议。
[Abstract]:In the stock market, securities companies are the most important intermediary between the two sides. In September 1987, China established its first professional securities company, the Shenzhen Special Zone Securities Company, since then. With the rapid development of China's economy, the national disposable wealth has been rapidly accumulated. In the eyes of investors, China's securities market has a specific channel. Investors' existing deposits could be converted into equity, which would help them generate their capitalized income. The general public is increasingly enthusiastic about participation in the securities market. Investors are also looking at the hot securities industry. Therefore, more and more attention has been paid to the analysis of the investment value of the listed companies. So this paper will use the EVA valuation method to analyze the value of some listed securities companies in order to prevent the risk. In end of 2016, there were 129 securities companies in our country. The total assets of these 129 securities companies were 5.79 tillion yuan and the net assets were 1.64 tillion yuan. The net capital is 1.47 tillion yuan, the whole year realizes the operating income three hundred and twenty-seven billion nine hundred and ninety-four million yuan, realizes the net profit one hundred and twenty-three billion four hundred and forty-five million yuan to realize the 124 companies to realize the profit. Through the data we can see. The development of China's securities industry is moving forward with a healthy and stable situation, focusing on company management and risk resistance, and improving profitability and service capacity through the development of business scale. Depending on the development of Chinese economy, there will be a broader development. Firstly, this paper expounds the background and significance of the research on the valuation of listed companies. And briefly summarized the research content and structure of this paper, for the domestic and foreign scholars in the EVA model of a simple review of the research, and do a summary evaluation. Then points out the innovation of this paper and reflects on the shortcomings of this paper. Then, the comparative analysis of the theory of enterprise value evaluation, starting with the meaning of enterprise value evaluation, the value evaluation method is divided into cost method. Income approach and market approach, the various valuation methods are compared and analyzed. Secondly, the applicability of EVA model to the valuation of listed securities companies, including the meaning of EVA valuation method, is discussed. And the advantages and disadvantages of the EVA valuation method, according to the characteristics of the valuation of securities companies and the applicability of the EVA model, finally select the EVA model. This paper carries on the empirical analysis based on the EVA model to the selected listed securities companies, and classifies the EVA model on the basis of the different development stages of the enterprises. Finally, we choose a high-speed development model which is more suitable for securities companies, and introduce the method of model calculation and the items needed in the calculation process in detail. And the relevant accounting subjects have been adjusted. In the annual report of each listed securities companies in 2015 selected the data, calculate the 2015 EVA value, and then use the relevant data in the annual report. The next five years of the EVA value is forecasted, replaced by the EVA two-stage valuation model, calculated in end of 2015 listed securities firm value and value per share. Finally, based on the analysis of empirical results, to provide investors with relevant advice.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.39

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