实体经济低波动与金融去杠杆——2017年中国宏观经济中期报告

发布时间：2018-01-01 17:44

本文关键词：实体经济低波动与金融去杠杆——2017年中国宏观经济中期报告　出处：《经济学动态》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：全球金融危机爆发以来,我国经济出现两个明显特征:一是增长和通胀的低波动;二是在传统金融体系之外成长出体量相近的影子银行体系。这和美国1982-2007年的大稳定时期颇为相似。大稳定使美国的政策制定者忽视了金融风险和金融监管,为后来的大衰退埋下伏笔。我国影子银行发展非常迅猛,导致资产价格剧烈波动、资金脱实向虚和全社会杠杆率攀升等问题,增加了供给侧结构性改革的难度和复杂性。2016年下半年开启的金融去杠杆,其实质是对影子银行的规范和监管。目前来看,我国的金融去杠杆取得了初步成效,实体经济也维持了稳中向好的趋势。未来,在珍视和保持实体经济低波动态势的同时,我们需要继续探索新的货币政策和金融监管框架,积极预防金融风险,促进金融业更好地服务于实体经济。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis broke out, China's economy has two obvious characteristics: first, the low fluctuation of growth and inflation; Second, the shadow banking system has grown out of the traditional financial system. This is quite similar to the period of great stability in the United States in 1982-2007, which made American policy makers ignore financial risks. And financial regulation. The development of shadow banking in China is very rapid, which leads to the sharp fluctuation of asset prices, the derealisation of funds and the rising leverage ratio of the whole society and so on. The financial deleveraging launched in the second half of 2016 is essentially the regulation and supervision of shadow banking. China's financial deleveraging has achieved initial results, and the real economy has maintained a steady and moderate trend. In the future, while cherishing and maintaining the trend of low volatility of the real economy. We need to continue to explore the new monetary policy and financial regulatory framework, actively prevent financial risks, and promote the financial sector to better serve the real economy.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院经济研究所宏观经济分析课题组的阶段性研究成果,课题组负责人张平
【分类号】：F124;F832
【正文快照】： 一、引言2017年上半年,我国实体经济稳中向好,金融去杠杆取得初步成效,全球经济也出现了复苏迹象。上半年,国内生产总值381490亿元,增长6.9%,超出市场预期。在增速回升的同时,实体经济增长有四个特点:(1)高技术产业发展迅猛,有力地带动了经济增长。从工业增加值看,上半年高技

【相似文献】