国际资本流动、汇率与预期管理——人民币纳入SDR货币篮子的效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-04 22:31

本文关键词：国际资本流动、汇率与预期管理——人民币纳入SDR货币篮子的效应分析　出处：《中央财经大学学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,国际资本流动对人民币汇率走势的影响越发显著,如何引导资本流动成为汇率预期管理的关键。人民币加入SDR,可增进SDR代表性与正当性,同时借助IMF背书,提升国际影响力,引导资本流动。笔者通过构建两国的代际交叠模型探讨货币入篮SDR的作用机理。在信息不对称的理论假设下,货币入篮SDR可以从信息结构影响债权人监督债务人的交易成本,引起资本收益率变动,进而引导资本流动形成汇率波动压力。检验SDR其他权重货币,验证了入篮SDR对资本流动影响的推断。研究发现:影响主要针对长期资本流动,具有滞后性,短期资本不显著;长期资本总量上升,净额受货币发行国资本存量与合意资本的差异影响。人民币纳入SDR有利于加快国际化进程,倒逼制度建设和进一步提升市场开发程度,影响国际资本流动,改变汇率变动的预期。但人民币国际化仍需在币值稳定的基础上推进。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the influence of international capital flow on RMB exchange rate trend is more and more significant. How to guide capital flow to become the key of exchange rate expectation management. At the same time, with the help of IMF endorsement, enhance international influence, guide capital flow. The author discusses the mechanism of currency basket SDR by constructing the intergenerational overlapping model of the two countries. Under the theoretical hypothesis of information asymmetry. Currency entry SDR can influence the transaction cost of creditor to supervise the debtor from the information structure, cause the change of capital return rate, and then lead the capital flow to form the pressure of exchange rate fluctuation. Test the other weighted currency of SDR. The results show that the impact of SDR on capital flow is mainly aimed at long-term capital flow, which is lagging behind, and the short-term capital is not significant. The increase of the total long-term capital is influenced by the difference between the capital stock of the issuing countries and the desirable capital. The introduction of RMB into SDR is conducive to speeding up the process of internationalization, forcing the construction of institutions and further enhancing the degree of market development. Affecting international capital flows and changing expectations of exchange rate movements, however, the internationalization of the yuan still needs to be promoted on a stable basis.
【作者单位】：青岛大学经济学院;青岛大学商学院;
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言2016年10月1日,IMF宣布人民币纳入特别提款权(Special Drawing Rights,简称SDR)。SDR是IMF针对布雷顿森林体系解体后,为了解决国际间流动性或国际储备不足的问题,于1969年创设。SDR由多种货币按照对应权重组成,每5年对所选货币和权重进行一次调整。货币的选择标准:一

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