流动性过剩与全球失衡联动研究——基于货币稀释理论

发布时间：2018-01-10 14:30

本文关键词：流动性过剩与全球失衡联动研究——基于货币稀释理论　出处：《国际金融研究》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文阐释了"货币稀释理论",据此理论建立了流动性过剩与全球失衡的一般均衡模型。在均衡解的表达式中包括利率、通货膨胀、经济增长、消费(或储蓄)、金融发展、流动性过剩、外汇储备、经济地位等宏观经济变量。然后通过理论推演得出如下结论:(1)货币经济中的实际利率小于自给自足经济中的实际利率,由此得出金融资产具有流动性溢价,推广了Caballero et al.(2008)的结论。(2)在主权货币作为国际储备货币条件下,全球失衡是必然的。(3)中国的马歇尔K值被高估。我们提出了"总K值""有效K值"和"流动性过剩放大系数"概念,并用中国数据验证了中国的"有效K值"明显低于其"总K值"。(4)给出并严格证明了经常账户和贸易余额、资产供求的渐近表达式,论证了经常账户和贸易余额之间的关系。利用此模型可以分析不同宏观经济变量的冲击对全球失衡的影响,从而全面理解世界经济,为经济理论、金融理论和世界经济研究提供新的分析思路。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the theory of currency dilution is explained, and the general equilibrium model of excess liquidity and global imbalance is established. The expressions of equilibrium solution include interest rate, inflation, and economic growth. Consumption (or savings), financial development, excess liquidity, foreign exchange reserves. Economic status and other macroeconomic variables. Then we draw the following conclusion by theoretical deduction: 1) the real interest rate in the monetary economy is lower than the real interest rate in the self-sufficient economy. It is concluded that the financial assets have liquidity premium, which generalizes the conclusion of Caballero et al. 2008) that the sovereign currency is the international reserve currency. China's Marshall K value is overestimated. We put forward the concepts of "total K value" and "effective K value" and "excess liquidity magnification factor". Using Chinese data to verify that China's "effective K value" is obviously lower than its "total K value". 4) the asymptotic expressions of current account and trade balance, supply and demand of assets are strictly proved. The relationship between current account and trade balance is demonstrated. The model can be used to analyze the impact of different macroeconomic variables on global imbalances, so as to fully understand the world economy as economic theory. Financial theory and world economic research provide new analytical ideas.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学财政金融学院教研室;对外经济贸易大学;
【分类号】：F822.0;F827.12
【正文快照】： 引言全球宏观经济中出现了引人注目的八个事实(见图1),这些经济现象都与流动性过剩及全球失衡两大主题紧密联系在一起。现在,美国是世界上最强的发达国家,大力发展虚拟经济;而中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,快速发展实体经济。中美两大经济主体的两种发展模式,强有力地影响着

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