我国实行利率走廊调控模式的理论分析及实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 20:11

本文关键词：我国实行利率走廊调控模式的理论分析及实证研究　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自二十世纪末以来,世界上一些国家货币政策的中介目标逐渐改为实行以利率为中介目标的货币政策实施操作框架,这一改革过程中多数国家采用的方法具有共同点即:实施利率走廊调控模式,这一模式的运用使其利率更加稳定、货币政策调控效果得到提高。近年来,随着货币供给量和宏观经济的关系逐渐不明显,我国货币政策中介目标也面临向利率转变的问题。基于我国金融市场实际情况并吸取国外研究经验,在2013年我国中央银行设立常备借贷便利,开始创设我国的走廊框架。因此,要实现中介目标的转变,提高货币政策调控效率,对利率走廊的相关理论、运行机制和在我国的适应性进行研究十分有意义。本文首先对文章的选题所处背景和研究利率走廊调控模式的意义进行阐述,并对国内学者和国外学者关于货币政策中介目标方针转变、利率走廊调控模式的有关资料进行梳理和吸收,在国内外专家已有研习成果上整理出本文的研究路线以及框架布局。进而本文对国际上和我国的利率走廊调控模式实施的现状加以介绍。第二部分,对货币政策、货币政策的中介目标、利率走廊等的关联概念和理论基础进行描述,随后详细介绍了利率走廊的作用机制、利率走廊调控模式的优异之处和利率走廊框架的设置原理。第三部分,利用时间序列数据,以协整检验和VAR模型为基础,将利率和货币供给量的可控性以及与GDP的相关性做实证分析,并将分析结果加以对比得出结论:利率在可控性、相关性上均优于货币供给量,更加适合于充当货币政策中介目标。该部分又以常备借贷便利设立时间为分界点将时间序列数据分成两部分,建立VAR模型,对比走廊框架设立前后我国利率反应情况,验证该调控模式在我国的适用性,得出结论:常备借贷便利作为利率走廊上限能够发挥作用,降低利率波动性,提高其对宏观经济的解释力度,我国市场情况适合采纳利率走廊调控模式。最后,本文在理论分析和实证分析的基础之上,提出我国实行利率走廊调控模式的相关政策建议:一是完善常备借贷便利工具体系;二是优化和规范金融市场之传导机制;三是升级电子清算系统的建设,提高货币政策的透明程度;四是加快货币政策中介目标的改革转变。
[Abstract]:Since the end of 20th century, the intermediate target of monetary policy in some countries in the world has been gradually changed into an operational framework of monetary policy implementation with interest rate as the intermediate target. The methods adopted by most countries in this reform process have common points, that is, the implementation of the interest rate corridor control model, which makes the interest rate more stable and the monetary policy control effect improved in recent years. As the relationship between money supply and macro-economy is not obvious, the intermediary target of monetary policy in China is facing the problem of turning to interest rate. Based on the actual situation of our financial market and drawing on foreign research experience. In 2013, the Central Bank of China set up standing loan facilities, and began to create the corridor framework of our country. Therefore, to achieve the transformation of intermediary objectives, improve the efficiency of monetary policy control, the relevant theory of interest corridor. It is very meaningful to study the operation mechanism and adaptability in our country. Firstly, this paper expounds the background of the topic and the significance of the study of interest rate corridor regulation model. And domestic and foreign scholars on the monetary policy intermediary target and policy transformation, interest rate corridor control model of the relevant data are combed and absorbed. In the domestic and foreign experts on the existing research results collate the research route and framework layout. Then this paper introduces the international and China's current situation of the implementation of the interest rate corridor control model. Part two. The paper describes the related concepts and theoretical basis of monetary policy, monetary policy intermediary target, interest rate corridor, and then introduces the mechanism of interest rate corridor in detail. The advantages of the interest rate corridor control model and the setting principle of the interest rate corridor framework. The third part, using time series data, based on cointegration test and VAR model. The controllability of interest rate and money supply and the correlation between interest rate and GDP are analyzed empirically, and the results are compared. The conclusion is that interest rate is superior to money supply in controllability and relativity. This part divides the time series data into two parts and establishes the VAR model. Comparing the interest rate response of our country before and after the establishment of the Corridor Framework, to verify the applicability of this model in China, draw the conclusion: standing loan facilities as the upper limit of the interest rate corridor can play a role in reducing interest rate volatility. Improve its macroeconomic interpretation, China's market conditions are suitable for the adoption of interest rate corridor control model. Finally, this paper based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions of implementing the regulation mode of interest rate corridor in China: first, perfecting the system of standing loan facilities; Second, optimize and standardize the transmission mechanism of financial market; Third, upgrade the construction of electronic clearing system and improve the transparency of monetary policy; Fourth, accelerate the reform transformation of monetary policy intermediary target.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

【参考文献】