基于“三元悖论”框架的中国货币政策独立性计量研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 06:17

本文关键词：基于“三元悖论”框架的中国货币政策独立性计量研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当今世界,由于全球化浪潮的加剧,几乎各个国家都处于开放经济的状态。在开放经济下,对于宏观经济调控,兼顾内外两种均衡是必不可少的,各国经济都需面对这两种均衡的严峻考验。对于中国来说,20世纪80年末之前我国曾是一个封闭的经济体。然而由于中国的改革开放,30年来我国开始越来越多的参与到世界经济中。我国经济开放程度有了极大的提高,中国的经济自由化体现在加强对外贸易、提高国际资本流入、高外债和外汇储备积累经常账户可兑换和资本账户可兑换的逐渐放开。而且近年来政府推进的“一带一路”战略,更意味着我国正在构建对外开放的新格局。随着对外开放程度的不断加强,我国内外均衡的矛盾也日益凸显,中国也在面临越来越大的“三元悖论”难题。本文主要研究“三元悖论”框架下,在我国经济开放的过程中汇率制度改革、资本账户开放进程以及货币政策的独立性三方面的经济政策,进而探究这期间政策搭配的变化,对充分享受经济全球化果实,协调好汇率政策和货币政策,既能使外汇管理起到防火墙的作用,降低国际金融动荡的不良影响,又能对保持货币政策的独立性和有效性有启发性效果。本文选取的模型是MS-BVAR,本文的研究思路是首先从理论发展过程阐述“三元悖论”原理,借鉴前人构建的“三元悖论”政策指标体系量化三个政策目标,通过回归研究我国不同阶段的政策组合搭配的特点,得出汇率制度稳定性是我国宏观经济的首要目标。实证部分具体是用MS-BVAR模型检验,脉冲响应函数进行分析,得出国内利率对国外利率、国内外因素的反应,进而探究我国不同阶段的货币政策的独立性,得出2010年以后我国货币政策独立性有所提高,国内利率的变动主要由于对国内因素的政策选择。最后结合“三元悖论”理论对汇率制度改革、资本账户开放进程提出相关的建议,认为资本账户开放进程应该谨慎有序进行,汇率制度应在保持稳定的基础上增强汇率弹性。
[Abstract]:In today's world, almost every country is in the state of open economy because of the intensification of globalization. In the open economy, it is necessary to take into account the internal and external balance for macroeconomic regulation and control. All countries have to face the severe test of these two kinds of equilibrium. For China, China was a closed economy before the end of the 20th century. However, due to China's reform and opening up. Over the past 30 years, China has begun to participate more and more in the world economy. China's economic openness has been greatly improved, and China's economic liberalization is reflected in strengthening foreign trade and increasing the inflow of international capital. The gradual liberalization of current account convertibility and capital account convertibility in the accumulation of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, and the "Belt and Road" strategy pursued by the Government in recent years. It means that China is building a new pattern of opening to the outside world. With the continuous strengthening of the degree of opening to the outside world, the equilibrium contradiction between China and the world is becoming increasingly prominent. China is also facing more and more difficult problems of "ternary paradox". This paper mainly studies the exchange rate system reform in the process of economic opening under the framework of "ternary paradox". Capital account opening process and the independence of monetary policy three aspects of economic policy, and then explore the changes in the policy mix during this period, to fully enjoy the fruits of economic globalization, to coordinate exchange rate policy and monetary policy. Foreign exchange management can not only play the role of firewall, reduce the adverse impact of international financial turmoil, but also to maintain the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy. The model chosen in this paper is MS-BVAR. The research idea of this paper is to expound the principle of "ternary paradox" from the process of theoretical development, and to quantify the three policy objectives of the "ternary paradox" policy index system constructed by predecessors. Through regression analysis of the characteristics of policy combinations in different stages in China, it is concluded that the stability of exchange rate regime is the primary goal of China's macro economy. The empirical part is tested with MS-BVAR model. The impulse response function is used to analyze the reaction of domestic interest rate to foreign interest rate and domestic and foreign factors, and then to explore the independence of monetary policy in different stages of our country. It is concluded that the independence of monetary policy has been improved since 2010, and the change of domestic interest rate is mainly due to the policy choice of domestic factors. Finally, the exchange rate system is reformed in combination with the theory of "ternary paradox". The paper suggests that the process of capital account opening should be carried out carefully and orderly, and the exchange rate regime should strengthen exchange rate elasticity on the basis of maintaining stability.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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