两岸四地人民币周边化的可行性与路径——基于货币锚与汇率联动视角的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 00:06

  本文关键词： 两岸四地 人民币周边化 货币锚效应 VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型 汇率联动　出处：《金融经济学研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”倡议下人民币周边化、区域化已成为推动人民币国际化的必由之路,而在中国大陆与香港、澳门、台湾(1)之间推进人民币周边化则是人民币区域化的优先选择。运用货币锚效应模型和VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型,使用2005年7月21日至2017年6月9日之间的人民币汇率日数据分四个阶段实证检验人民币在港澳台“锚货币”选择中的影响程度和人民币与港澳台货币汇率的联动性及持续性。货币锚效应模型的估计结果表明人民币已成为港澳台货币汇率波动中重要的“隐性锚”;VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型估计结果表明美元仍然是影响港澳台汇率波动的最重要因素,人民币周边化的经济基础受到人民币汇改以及人民币与美元之间强弱关系的影响。现阶段应将推进两岸四地人民币周边化作为人民币区域化的本地战略加以实施,可考虑先行启动港澳地区的货币单一化进程,并等待台湾政治形势发生变化后择机逐渐将台湾纳入到“人民币区”范围内。
[Abstract]:Under the proposal of "Belt and Road", RMB circumference and regionalization have become the only way to promote the internationalization of RMB. In mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, The promotion of RMB circumference between Taiwan and Taiwan is the preferred choice for RMB regionalization. The monetary anchor effect model and the VAR-GARCH-BEKK model are used. Using the daily data of RMB exchange rate from July 21st 2005 to June 9th 2017, this paper empirically examines the influence of RMB on the choice of "anchor currency" between Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and the linkage between RMB and currency exchange rate of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The estimated results of the currency anchor effect model show that the RMB has become an important "hidden anchor" in the fluctuation of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan currency exchange rate. The result of the VAR-GARCH-BEKK model indicates that the US dollar is still the most important factor affecting the exchange rate fluctuation of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The economic base of RMB circumference is affected by the RMB exchange rate reform and the relationship between the strength of RMB and the US dollar. At this stage, it should be implemented as a local strategy of promoting the RMB periphery of the four places of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as a regionalization of the renminbi. We may consider starting the process of currency unitization in Hong Kong and Macao, and waiting for Taiwan's political situation to change and gradually bring Taiwan into the "RMB zone".
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