通货膨胀目标制可以增强金融体系抵御外部冲击的能力

发布时间：2018-03-01 09:18

本文关键词： 卢布汇率资本项目中国金融改革人民币国际化　出处：《欧亚经济》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2014年以来,卢布汇率大幅贬值和剧烈波动引起国际社会广泛关注。资本外逃、通货膨胀、外汇储备下降,俄罗斯经济面临严峻考验。深刻分析卢布贬值的原因:欧美制裁和油价下跌是导火索,经济增长乏力、结构畸形是根本点,开放资本项目是助推器。关联储退出量化宽松政策,美元加息预期不断增强,特别是中国大幅下调人民币中间价后,新兴市场国家和与中国有密切贸易关系的国家货币争先恐后贬值,在经济全球化的今天,发展中国家选择何种汇率制度、资本项目的开放程度等又成为当前研讨的热点问题。中国"十三五"规划建议指出,有序实现人民币资本项目可自由兑换,推动人民币进入特别提款权,成为可自由兑换、可自由使用货币,可见,人民币国际化进程已经开始提速。本刊编辑部特邀请国内专家学者参加讨论,剖析卢布贬值的深层原因,比较中俄两国在经济增长、产业结构、国际储备、本币国际化、汇率制度等方面的差异,评估卢布汇率危机对中国金融改革总体进程的影响,探讨中国如何在逐步推进汇率形成机制市场化的同时,有效防范汇率大幅波动产生的风险。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the rouble exchange rate has been greatly devalued and sharply fluctuated. The international community has paid extensive attention to the flight of capital, inflation and the decline of foreign exchange reserves. The Russian economy is facing a severe test. The reasons for the devaluation of the rouble are deeply analyzed: sanctions from Europe and the United States and the fall in oil prices are the trigger, the economic growth is weak, the structural malformation is the root point, and the opening of the capital account is the booster. Expectations of a rate rise in the US dollar continue to increase. Especially after China has sharply lowered the central rate of the renminbi, emerging market countries and countries with close trade ties with China are scrambling to depreciate. Today, with economic globalization, The exchange rate regime chosen by developing countries and the degree to which capital accounts are open have become hot issues at present. China's 13th Five-Year Plan proposal points out that the free convertibility of RMB capital accounts can be achieved in an orderly manner. Push the RMB into SDR, become freely convertible and freely use the currency. It can be seen that the process of RMB internationalization has begun to accelerate. The editorial department of this magazine specially invites domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion. By analyzing the deep reasons for the devaluation of the rouble, comparing the differences between China and Russia in terms of economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, internationalization of the local currency and exchange rate regime, and evaluating the impact of the rouble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of China's financial reform, This paper discusses how China can effectively guard against the risk of large fluctuation of exchange rate while promoting the marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism step by step.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行沈阳分行;
【分类号】：F832.6;F835.12

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