人民币汇率升值对国际收支调节的有效性分析——兼论中国国际收支再平衡对策

发布时间：2018-03-01 19:22

本文关键词： 人民币汇率国际收支调节再平衡机制　出处：《改革与战略》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：人民币汇率调节国际收支的理论基础包括国际收支弹性分析法下汇率对经常项目的调节作用、利率平价理论下汇率对资本与金融项目的调节作用、购买力平价理论下汇率对资本与金融项目的调节作用。人民币汇率持续升值、经常项目持续顺差状况没有得到改善、资本与金融项目顺差没有明显转变。人民币汇率调节作用弱化的原因在于:出口导向型政策的长期影响;人民币国际化阶段性特征的制约;金融市场结构不健全;资本项目管制的影响。解决人民币汇率持续升值、国际收支顺差不减、外汇储备过快增长等问题,应统筹考虑中国经济发展的阶段特征和结构特点,最大限度发挥汇率调节作用,继续推进人民币汇率制度改革;加快产业结构调整和金融市场改革,坚持"内外兼修"促平衡;加快推进资本项目可兑换和人民币国际化进程,逐步引导国际收支向"贸易项目顺差、资本项目逆差、国际收支基本平衡"格局转变。
[Abstract]:The theoretical basis of RMB exchange rate adjustment of international balance of payments includes the adjustment of exchange rate to current account under the elastic analysis of international balance of payments, the adjustment of exchange rate to capital and financial items under the theory of interest rate parity. The adjustment effect of exchange rate on capital and financial account under purchasing power parity theory. The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, and the current account surplus situation has not been improved. The reasons for the weakening of RMB exchange rate adjustment are: the long-term influence of export-oriented policy, the restriction of the stage characteristics of RMB internationalization, the imperfect structure of financial market; The impact of capital account control. To solve the problems such as the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the unabated balance of payments surplus, and the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves, we should take into account the characteristics of the stage and structure of China's economic development as a whole. To maximize the role of exchange rate regulation, to continue to promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate system; to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and the reform of the financial market, to adhere to the "internal and external reform" and promote balance; and to speed up the process of capital account convertibility and RMB internationalization. Gradually guide the balance of payments to "trade account surplus, capital account deficit, international balance of payments basic balance of payments."
【作者单位】：内蒙古师范大学法政学院;
【分类号】：F832.6

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