宏观经济不确定性对我国商业银行信贷供给的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 01:04

本文选题：宏观经济　切入点：不确定性　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：与发达国家相比,我国资本市场的发展相对落后,社会融资方式依然是以银行信贷这种间接融资模式为主。随着我国改革开放程度的不断加深,利率市场化进程的逐步推进,国外很多的不确定性因素将会更大程度地传导至我国国内,从而加大我国整个宏观经济的不确定性。商业银行是我国金融市场上最重要的中介机构,信贷业务作为传统业务,在银行中仍然占有很大的比重,由于宏观经济不确定性的日益加深,商业银行在信贷业务上面临的问题也日益严峻。因此,研究宏观经济不确定性对我国商业银行信贷供给的影响,有利于银行更好地认识到宏观经济中的不确定性,从而及时调整信贷结构,加强审慎经营与风险管理,较好地实现经营转型,促进银行稳健经营与发展;同时有助于相关部门深刻认识到我国金融体制改革特别是银行改革中面临的问题,以利于制定出更为有效的宏观政策和进行风险控制,对我国的经济发展与金融稳定具有十分重要的现实意义。本文主要是通过理论和实证两个方面来研究宏观经济不确定性对我国商业银行信贷供给的影响。首先全面梳理了国内外的相关文献,在此基础上界定了宏观经济不确定性与商业银行信贷供给的概念并整理了相关理论;接着阐述了宏观经济不确定性产生的原因以及我国商业银行信贷供给的演变过程,并且建立基于银行期望效用最大化的模型,理论解析宏观经济的不确定性对商业银行信贷供给的影响;然后通过描述性统计分析方法展现了宏观经济不确定性与我国商业银行信贷供给的现实表现。基于上述的理论和现状分析,本文提出了四个研究假设,接下去通过实证来对这些研究假设进行检验。在进行回归分析之前,需要对我国宏观经济不确定性进行测度,选择可以代表我国宏观经济的指标,运用GARCH模型计算出其条件方差来表示宏观经济不确定性指标。然后通过建立面板数据模型检验宏观经济不确定性对商业银行信贷供给的影响,并且将商业银行中的上市银行选取出来与非上市银行进行对比研究,将盈利能力较好的银行与盈利能力较差的银行分离开来进行对比研究,还检验了宏观经济不确定性影响我国商业银行信贷供给的途径。最后通过前面的理论和实证研究,得出了本论文的研究结论,在此基础上提出了几点建议以供相关部门参考。通过本文的研究,得出了以下四点结论:(1)宏观经济不确定性对我国商业银行信贷供给具有显著的负向影响,即当宏观经济不确定性增大时,商业银行将倾向于减少信贷供给。(2)宏观经济不确定性会通过资金需求途径来影响商业银行信贷供给,通过提高企业家对未来投资获益的信心可以减少宏观经济不确定性对商业银行信贷供给的负向作用。(3)相较于上市银行,宏观经济不确定性对非上市商业银行的影响要更大。(4)商业银行盈利能力的提高有助于减少宏观经济不确定性对其信贷供给的冲击,但减少程度较弱。针对上述得出的相关结论,本文提出了下面四点建议:(1)构建完善的宏观经济不确定性的预警系统。(2)建立健全的商业银行风险管理体系。(3)加快资本市场建设的进程,促进商业银行市场化改革。(4)加强商业银行的金融创新能力。
[Abstract]:Compared with developed countries, China's capital market development is relatively backward, social financing is still in the bank credit this indirect financing mode. With the continuous deepening of reform and opening in China, the process of marketization of interest rate step by step, will foreign many uncertainties more transfer to our country, and to increase our overall macroeconomic uncertainty. Commercial banks are the most important agencies in our country's financial market, the credit business is a traditional business, still occupies a large proportion of the bank, due to macroeconomic uncertainty is growing, the commercial banks face in the credit business problem is increasingly serious. Therefore, no study on the uncertainty of macroeconomic impact of China's commercial bank credit supply, is conducive to a better understanding of the bank to the macro economic uncertainty, and timely adjustment The credit structure, strengthen prudent operation and risk management, to better achieve business transformation, promote the operation and development of bank soundness; and help the relevant departments to a profound understanding of China's financial system reform especially banks face problems in the reform, to establish a more effective macroeconomic policy and risk control, has the practical significance very important for economic development and financial stability in China. This paper is mainly through the two aspects of theory and Empirical Study of macroeconomic uncertainty of China's commercial bank credit supply. First combed the related literature at home and abroad, this paper defines the concept of macro economic uncertainty and credit supply of commercial bank and sort out the relevant theory; then expounds the causes of macroeconomic uncertainty and the evolution of China's commercial bank credit supply, and construction The bank made the expected utility maximization model based on theoretical analysis of influence of macroeconomic uncertainty on commercial bank credit supply; then show the actual performance of macroeconomic uncertainty and credit supply of China's commercial banks through the method of descriptive statistics analysis. Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward four research hypotheses. Then through the empirical research on these assumptions to test. Before the regression analysis, need to measure China's macroeconomic uncertainty, choice can represent China's macroeconomic indicators, using the GARCH model to calculate the conditional variance to represent macroeconomic uncertainty index. Then through the establishment of panel data model test the uncertainty of macroeconomic impact on Commercial Bank credit supply, and commercial banks in selected listed banks and non listed bank For comparison, the better profitability of banks and the poor profitability of the bank is separated from the comparative study, examine the macroeconomic uncertainty influence the supply of credit of China's commercial banks. Finally, through the theory and previous empirical research, obtained the conclusion of this paper, put forward several points suggestions for relevant departments. Through this research, draw the following four conclusions: (1) macroeconomic uncertainty of China's commercial bank credit supply has significant negative effect when macroeconomic uncertainty increases, commercial banks will tend to reduce the supply of credit. (2) the macroeconomic the uncertainty will affect commercial bank capital requirements to credit supply, by improving the entrepreneur confidence in the future investment benefit can reduce macroeconomic uncertainty on commercial bank letter The loan supply negative effects. (3) compared to the listed banks, macroeconomic uncertainty will have a bigger impact on non listed commercial banks. (4) helps to reduce macroeconomic uncertainty on the impact of the credit supply of commercial bank profitability improved, but less weak. For the related conclusion above in this paper, put forward the following four suggestions: (1) the construction of the early warning system of perfect macroeconomic uncertainty. (2) establish a sound risk management system of commercial banks. (3) to speed up the process of the construction of the capital market, promote market-oriented reform of the banks. (4) to strengthen the financial innovation of commercial banks.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4;F124

【参考文献】