避险情绪、货币乘数与二元悖论

发布时间：2018-03-05 11:27

本文选题：避险情绪　切入点：货币乘数　出处：《国际金融研究》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】："二元悖论"向传统的"三元悖论"发起挑战,认为在资本可自由流动条件下,浮动汇率国家无法保持货币政策独立。然而,作为建立在实证基础上的直观判断,"二元悖论"背后的理论逻辑并未详细阐明。为弥补这一缺憾,本文提出货币乘数传导假说,认为全球性避险情绪会通过准备金比率、通货比率两条渠道对货币乘数产生负向的影响。在这一机制作用下,浮动汇率制国家的基础货币仍然可控,但货币供给总量会受到全球避险情绪的影响,使宏观经济呈现出随国际金融周期变化而变化的"二元悖论"特征。随后,我们采用IMF连续11年评估为浮动汇率制的18个国家的面板数据,建立固定效应模型对上述假说进行验证,实证结果有力地支持了假说。本文的结论和政策含义有三个方面:第一,浮动汇率制并不能"隔绝"全球性避险情绪对货币乘数的影响,因此对资本流动采取一定程度的宏观审慎管理是必要的。第二,"三元悖论"未被推翻,因此"二元悖论"不宜被过分强调。这意味着仍有必要增强汇率灵活性,而没有必要重回资本管制的老路。第三,应密切关注全球性避险情绪的变化,建立相关监测指标,必要时可考虑将其纳入货币政策分析框架,从而为更好实现货币政策目标提供支持。
[Abstract]:Duality Paradox challenges the traditional "Triple Paradox", which holds that floating exchange rate countries cannot maintain monetary policy independence under the condition that capital can flow freely. As an intuitive judgment based on empirical evidence, the theoretical logic behind "dualistic paradox" has not been clarified in detail. In order to remedy this shortcoming, this paper puts forward the monetary multiplier conduction hypothesis, which holds that global risk aversion will pass through the reserve ratio. Two channels of currency ratio have a negative impact on the currency multiplier. Under this mechanism, the base currency of countries with floating exchange rate systems is still controllable, but the total amount of money supply will be affected by global risk aversion. So that the macroeconomic changes with the international financial cycle changes in the "dualistic paradox" characteristics. Then, we use the IMF for 11 consecutive years to evaluate the floating exchange rate system of 18 countries panel data, A fixed effect model is established to verify the above hypothesis. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis. The conclusions and policy implications of this paper have three aspects: first, The floating exchange rate system cannot "isolate" the influence of global risk aversion on the currency multiplier, so a certain degree of macro-prudential management of capital flows is necessary. Second, the "ternary paradox" has not been overturned. Therefore, the "duality paradox" should not be overemphasized. This means that there is still a need to increase exchange rate flexibility and not to return to the old path of capital control. Third, the changes in global risk aversion should be closely monitored and relevant monitoring indicators should be established. If necessary, we may consider including it in the framework of monetary policy analysis to support the better realization of monetary policy objectives.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济研究院;中国人民银行上海总部;
【基金】：浙江省社科联研究课题(2015Z014)资助
【分类号】：F224;F821.0

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