声誉对分析师预测准确度的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 13:51

本文选题：分析师预测准确度　切入点：企业声誉　出处：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：声誉对降低市场上的信息不对称以及提供激励都具有十分重要的积极作用,它也是维持交易关系的一种不可或缺的重要机制。证券分析师比广大普通投资者具有更加专业的分析能力,是上市公司与投资者之间不可或缺的信息沟通纽带,缓解了上市公司与投资者之间的信息不对称,分析师的投资报告和预测评级对投资者起到了重要的指导作用。那么声誉在资本市场中是否对分析师的预测有积极的促进作用,高声誉的企业、高声誉的券商和高声誉的分析师,分析师的盈余预测准确度是否更高。探讨声誉对分析师预测的影响对资本市场中的分析师预测有着重要的指导作用,也扩充了分析师预测准确度的影响因素,探讨了其对分析师预测的影响机理。此外,也为声誉机制的建立提供了重要证明,延伸了声誉机制的影响领域。本文以国泰安数据库中2010-2015年分析师预测数据为依据,将分析师预测盈余与真实盈余的偏差度为研究对象,研究企业声誉、券商声誉和分析师声誉对分析师预测准确度的影响。根据一定的筛选原则分别选取高声誉企业和对照企业、高声誉券商和对照券商、高声誉分析师和对照分析师三组分析师预测数据,将数据做配对样本T检验,得出三组分析师预测误差均存在显著差异,再利用SPSS做多元线性回归,探究企业声誉、券商声誉和分析师声誉及其他因素与分析师预测准确度之间的关系。研究证明,对于高声誉的企业,其正预测误差比例要小于对照企业的正预测误差,分析师对高声誉企业并未进行过于乐观的预测;企业声誉与预测误差成反比,即声誉高的企业,盈余预测的误差越小、越准确;券商声誉与预测误差成反比,即高声誉券商就职的分析师,其预测较准确;高声誉的分析师即明星分析师,其盈余预测的准确度比一般分析师更高。此外,还证明了多个控制变量与分析师预测误差的关系。机构投资者持股比例越高、跟随的分析师越多、净资产收益率越高、资产增长率越快,预测日距披露日越接近,分析师预测误差越小,越准确;每股盈余的波动性越大,分析师预测的误差越大、准确度越低。存在盈余管理动机的企业,分析师预测误差较大,而没有盈余管理动机的企业,分析师预测准确度越高。
[Abstract]:Reputation plays an important and positive role in reducing information asymmetry in the market and providing incentives. It is also an indispensable and important mechanism for maintaining trading relationships. Securities analysts have more professional analytical capabilities than ordinary investors, and they are indispensable communication links between listed companies and investors. It alleviates the information asymmetry between listed companies and investors, and analysts' investment reports and forecast ratings play an important guiding role for investors. Then, does reputation play a positive role in promoting analysts' forecasts in the capital market? High reputation companies, reputable brokerages and reputable analysts, whether the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts are higher. Exploring the impact of reputation on analysts' forecasts is an important guide to analyst forecasts in capital markets. It also expands the influencing factors of analyst forecast accuracy and discusses its influence mechanism on analyst forecast. In addition, it also provides important proof for the establishment of reputation mechanism. It extends the influence area of reputation mechanism. Based on the forecast data of analysts from 2010 to 2015 in Cathay Pacific database, this paper studies the corporate reputation by taking the deviation degree between analysts' forecast earnings and real earnings as the research object. According to certain screening principles, select high reputation enterprises and control companies, high reputation securities firms and contrast securities firms, High-reputation analysts and control analysts of the three groups of analyst forecasting data, the data are paired samples T test, the three groups of analysts forecast errors are significant differences, and then use SPSS to do multiple linear regression, to explore corporate reputation, The relationship between brokerage reputation and analyst reputation and other factors and the accuracy of analyst prediction. Analysts do not make overly optimistic forecasts for high-reputation companies; corporate reputations are inversely proportional to forecasting errors, that is, the smaller the earnings prediction errors are, the more accurate the earnings forecasts are for high-reputation companies, and the inversely proportional to the forecasting errors for securities firms. Analysts who work for high-reputable brokerages are more accurate in their forecasts; high-reputable analysts, or star analysts, are more accurate in their earnings forecasts than the average analyst. The higher the shareholding ratio of institutional investors, the more analysts follow, the higher the return on net assets, the faster the growth rate of assets, the closer the forecast day to disclosure. The smaller the error, the more accurate the analyst forecast is; the more volatile the earnings per share, the greater the error and the lower the accuracy of the analyst forecast. The more accurate the analyst forecast.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.39

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